Upside case
Bull case
$85+8.3%
STM would need investors to value it at roughly 66x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 61x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
15 bullish · 2 bearish · 29 covering STM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
12
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
-4.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$41 – $85
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
61.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $69.7B
STM price targets
Three scenarios for where STM stock could go
Current
~$78
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $78
Bear
$41
Base
$64
Bull
$85
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$64-17.8%
At 50x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$41-48.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 29x multiple contraction could push STM down roughly 48% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
STMicroelectronics N.V.
STM · NYSETechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
STMicroelectronics is a global semiconductor manufacturer that designs, develops, and sells a wide range of integrated circuits and microchips for automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics applications. It generates revenue through three main segments: Automotive and Discrete Group (~40% of sales), Analog, MEMS and Sensors Group (~30%), and Microcontrollers and Digital ICs Group (~30%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in power semiconductors and MEMS sensors—particularly in automotive applications—and its strategic partnerships with major European automakers transitioning to electric vehicles.
Market Cap
$69.7B
Revenue TTM
$12.4B
Net Income TTM
$145M
Net Margin
1.2%
STM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.06/$0.10
Revenue
$2.8B/$3.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.22
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.11/$0.27
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.13/$0.19
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.06/$0.10 | -40.0% | $2.8B/$3.2B | -11.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.29/$0.22 | +31.8% | $3.2B/$3.3B | -3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.11/$0.27 | -59.3% | $3.3B/$3.3B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.13/$0.19 | -31.6% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.8B
+3.2% YoY
FY2
$14.3B
+11.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.79
+404.3% YoY
FY2
$1.43
+81.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$160M
FCF Margin: 1.3%
Next Earnings
July 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.24
Expected Revenue
$3.4B
STM beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
STM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
98.0%
-11.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
SINGAPORE
55.6%
-3.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 98.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 11.1% YoY.
SINGAPORE is the largest reported region at 55.6%, down 3.6% YoY.
STM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $41 — implies -47.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
47.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
STM
435.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+1681% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
STM
435.5x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+1401% premium
vs STM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
435.5x
vs
5Y Average
40.1x
+986% premium
Forward PE
61.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+224%
Technology
22.3x
+174%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
435.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+1681%
Technology
29.0x
+1401%
5Y Avg
40.1x
+986%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
171.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+1030%
Technology
16.6x
+934%
5Y Avg
18.2x
+842%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
31.1x
—
Price/Sales
5.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+90%
Technology
2.4x
+141%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+144%
Dividend Yield
0.44%
S&P 500
1.91%
-77%
Technology
1.11%
-60%
5Y Avg
0.83%
-47%
| Metric | STM | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg STM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 61.0x | 18.8x+224% | 22.3x+174% | — |
| Trailing PE | 435.5x | 24.4x+1681% | 29.0x+1401% | 40.1x+986% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 171.9x | 15.2x+1030% | 16.6x+934% | 18.2x+842% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | 31.1x |
| Price/Sales | 5.9x | 3.1x+90% | 2.4x+141% | 2.4x+144% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.44% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.83% |
STM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSTM Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for STM are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.16
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$160M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$704M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
0.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.0%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$367M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
192.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
889M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSTM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Market Competition
STMicroelectronics faces intense competition in the semiconductor industry, which could pressure margins and market share.
High Risk
Supply Chain Risks
Global supply chain disruptions could impact manufacturing and delivery timelines, affecting revenue and customer relationships.
Medium
Technological Disruption
Rapid advancements in semiconductor technology may require significant R&D investments to maintain competitiveness.
Lower
Joint Venture Dependencies
Historical reliance on joint ventures, like the one with NXP, may introduce operational complexities post-acquisition.
High Risk
Economic Cyclicality
The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical, and economic downturns could significantly reduce demand for STMicroelectronics' products.
Medium
Regulatory Compliance
Stringent global regulations on manufacturing and exports could increase operational costs and limit market access.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why STM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI-powered sensor technology
STMicroelectronics' high-performance vibration sensor with in-sensor AI provides a competitive edge in the industrial condition-monitoring market.
Global semiconductor leadership
As a global semiconductor company with operational hubs in key regions, STMicroelectronics benefits from a diversified and scalable manufacturing footprint.
Strategic acquisitions and growth
The company's acquisition of joint ventures, like the NXP partnership, demonstrates its commitment to expanding capabilities and market share.
Strong market positioning
STMicroelectronics' presence on major stock exchanges and consistent news coverage reflects its prominence in the semiconductor industry.
Innovation in industrial markets
The development of advanced sensors and AI integration positions STMicroelectronics as a key player in fast-growing industrial applications.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
STM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.39
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$21.11
+271.3% from the low
52-Week High
$81.42
-3.7% from the high
1 Month
+28.59%
3 Month
+135.90%
YTD
+186.4%
1 Year
+170.1%
3Y CAGR
+17.1%
5Y CAGR
+16.9%
10Y CAGR
+29.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
STM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
61.0x
vs 40.6x median
+50% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.2%
vs +2.8% median
+15% above peer median
Net Margin
1.2%
vs 21.0% median
-94% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STM STM STMicroelectronics N.V. | $69.7B | 61.0x | +3.2% | 1.2% | Buy | -4.5% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $294.0B | 41.9x | +9.7% | 29.1% | Buy | -15.1% |
NXP NXP Nuveen Select Tax-Free Income Portfolio | $727M | — | -5.0% | 64.9% | Hold | — |
ON ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $47.7B | 39.4x | +2.8% | 9.5% | Buy | -22.5% |
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $54.0B | 63.6x | +2.7% | -2.2% | Buy | +8.1% |
NXP NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $79.1B | 21.3x | +6.8% | 21.0% | Buy | -22.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
STM Dividend and Capital Return
STM returns 1.0% annually — 0.44% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
0.44%
Payout Ratio
1.9%
How STM Splits Its Return
Div 0.44%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 0.44%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.5%
5Y Div CAGR
14.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
8 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$367M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
889M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $0.09 | -75.0% | — | — |
| 2026 | $0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.36 | +9.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $0.33 | +37.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% |
| 2023 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsSTM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying -4.5% from the current price of $78. The bear case scenario is $41 and the bull case is $85.
02What is the STM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for STM is $75 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+27.6% from today), and the low-end target is $34 (-56.6%). The base case model target is $64.
03Is STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) stock overvalued in 2026?
STM trades at 61.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for STM in 2026 are: (1) Supply Chain Risks — Global supply chain disruptions could impact manufacturing and delivery timelines, affecting revenue and customer relationships. (2) Economic Cyclicality — The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical, and economic downturns could significantly reduce demand for STMicroelectronics' products. (3) Market Competition — STMicroelectronics faces intense competition in the semiconductor industry, which could pressure margins and market share. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is STMicroelectronics N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates STM will report consensus revenue of $12.8B (+3.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.79 (+404.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.3B in revenue.
06When does STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) report its next earnings?
STMicroelectronics N.V. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-23. Consensus expects EPS of $0.24 and revenue of $3.4B. Over recent quarters, STM has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does STMicroelectronics N.V. generate?
STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) generated $160M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.3%. STM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($367M TTM).