Upside case
Bull case
$7528+2860.3%
PAC would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 30x more generous than today's 1x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
15
analysts
6 bullish · 2 bearish · 15 covering PAC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
7
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$285
+12.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$3600 – $7528
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.9B
PAC price targets
Three scenarios for where PAC stock could go
Current
~$254
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $254
Bear
$3600
Base
$5714
Bull
$7528
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$5714+2146.7%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$3600+1315.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push PAC down roughly 1315% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.
PAC · NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesDecember year-end
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico is a Mexican airport operator that manages, operates, and develops 12 airports primarily along Mexico's Pacific coast. It generates revenue through aeronautical fees — including landing, passenger, and aircraft parking charges — and commercial income from retail, food & beverage, and car rental concessions within its terminals. The company's key advantage is its government-granted long-term concessions that create regional monopolies for air travel infrastructure in strategic Pacific tourist and business destinations.
Market Cap
$10.9B
Revenue TTM
$32.5B
Net Income TTM
$10.4B
Net Margin
31.9%
PAC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.70/$2.75
Revenue
$584M/$586M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.86/$2.96
Revenue
$520M/$665M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.97/$3.13
Revenue
$574M/$585M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.63/$3.54
Revenue
$656M/$570M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.70/$2.75 | -1.8% | $584M/$586M | -0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.86/$2.96 | -3.4% | $520M/$665M | -21.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.97/$3.13 | -37.1% | $574M/$585M | -1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.63/$3.54 | +2.5% | $656M/$570M | +15.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$37.3B
+14.6% YoY
FY2
$42.6B
+14.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$243.18
+18.6% YoY
FY2
$277.59
+14.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.9B
FCF Margin: 18.0%
Next Earnings
July 20, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.15
Expected Revenue
$756M
PAC beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PAC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2023
Total disclosed revenue $3.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
JAMAICA
100.0%
+0.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
JAMAICA is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 0.0% YoY.
PAC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $2864 — implies +1026.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
1026.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PAC
22.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
9% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
PAC
22.2x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
13% discount
vs PAC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.2x
vs
5Y Average
1.1x
+2011% premium
Forward PE
1.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-94%
Industrials
21.2x
-95%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-9%
Industrials
25.6x
-13%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+2011%
PEG Ratio
0.56x
S&P 500
1.66x
-66%
Industrials
1.65x
-66%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-31%
Industrials
13.9x
-24%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+390%
Price/FCF
32.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+56%
Industrials
20.0x
+61%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+1739%
Price/Sales
5.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+88%
Industrials
1.6x
+271%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+1659%
Dividend Yield
3.83%
S&P 500
1.91%
+100%
Industrials
1.21%
+216%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | PAC | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg PAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.0x | 18.8x-94% | 21.2x-95% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.2x | 24.4x | 25.6x-13% | 1.1x+2011% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.56x | 1.66x-66% | 1.65x-66% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.5x | 15.2x-31% | 13.9x-24% | 2.2x+390% |
| Price/FCF | 32.2x | 20.7x+56% | 20.0x+61% | 1.8x+1739% |
| Price/Sales | 5.8x | 3.1x+88% | 1.6x+271% | 0.3x+1659% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.83% | 1.91% | 1.21% | — |
PAC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPAC Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PAC generates $5.9B in free cash flow at a 18.0% margin — 21.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$32.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+21.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
54.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
31.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$205.03
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
21.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$36.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.2× FCF
~6.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
41.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.8%
Dividend
3.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$168.40
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
85.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
43M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePAC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Operational concentration
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico operates 12 airports concentrated in Mexico's Pacific region, creating geographic revenue concentration risk.
High Risk
Regulatory risk
As a Mexican airport operator, the company faces potential regulatory changes in concession terms or fee structures by Mexican authorities.
Medium
Macroeconomic sensitivity
Being a transportation infrastructure company, PAC's performance is tied to Mexico's economic growth and tourism trends.
Lower
Currency volatility
As a dual-listed company (NYSE and Mexican Stock Exchange), PAC may face currency exchange rate risks between USD and MXN.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PAC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong regional airport presence
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico operates 12 airports across Mexico's Pacific region, providing a robust infrastructure footprint.
Attractive valuation metrics
PAC's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 23.47 and 16.64, respectively, suggest potential undervaluation relative to earnings.
Long-term infrastructure winner
The company is positioned as a long-term leader in Latin America's airport infrastructure sector.
Bullish analyst coverage
A bullish thesis on PAC was highlighted in the Chit Chat Stocks Newsletter, indicating positive sentiment among some investors.
Hedge fund interest
While not among the top 30 most popular hedge fund stocks, PAC is held by several funds, showing institutional interest.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PAC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$254.31
52W Range Position
51%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$206.91
+22.9% from the low
52-Week High
$300.41
-15.3% from the high
1 Month
+4.48%
3 Month
+9.14%
YTD
-2.9%
1 Year
+13.6%
3Y CAGR
+11.4%
5Y CAGR
+18.5%
10Y CAGR
+9.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PAC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.0x
vs 11.2x median
-91% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.6%
vs +10.0% median
+46% above peer median
Net Margin
31.9%
vs 6.1% median
+425% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAC PAC Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. | $10.9B | 1.0x | +14.6% | 31.9% | Hold | +12.1% |
OMA OMAB Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. | $5.5B | 0.8x | +11.5% | 33.5% | Buy | +11.4% |
ASU ASUR Asure Software, Inc. | $237M | 9.7x | +12.7% | -6.8% | Buy | +78.4% |
JBL JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation | $2.1B | — | +9.9% | -7.8% | Hold | -1.8% |
UAL UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $38.4B | 12.6x | +10.0% | 6.1% | Buy | +18.0% |
DAL DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | $55.0B | 15.4x | +7.1% | 7.9% | Buy | +3.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PAC Dividend and Capital Return
PAC returns 3.8% total yield, led by a 3.83% dividend.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
3.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.83%
Payout Ratio
85.1%
How PAC Splits Its Return
Div 3.83%
Dividend 3.83%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$168.40
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.9%
5Y Div CAGR
19.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
43M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $8.82 | +21.9% | 0.0% | 63.9% |
| 2024 | $7.23 | -15.4% | 79.2% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $8.55 | +18.5% | 0.0% | 84.7% |
| 2022 | $7.21 | +26.3% | 27.4% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | $5.71 | — | 42.0% | 100.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsPAC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $285, implying +12.1% from the current price of $254. The bear case scenario is $3600 and the bull case is $7528.
02What is the PAC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PAC is $285 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $285 (+12.1% from today), and the low-end target is $285 (+12.1%). The base case model target is $5714.
03Is Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) stock overvalued in 2026?
PAC trades at 1.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PAC in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory risk — As a Mexican airport operator, the company faces potential regulatory changes in concession terms or fee structures by Mexican authorities. (2) Operational concentration — Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico operates 12 airports concentrated in Mexico's Pacific region, creating geographic revenue concentration risk. (3) Macroeconomic sensitivity — Being a transportation infrastructure company, PAC's performance is tied to Mexico's economic growth and tourism trends. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PAC will report consensus revenue of $37.3B (+14.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $243.18 (+18.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $42.6B in revenue.
06When does Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) report its next earnings?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-20. Consensus expects EPS of $3.15 and revenue of $756M. Over recent quarters, PAC has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. generate?
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) generated $5.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.0%. PAC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.8% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).