Upside case
Bull case
$124+68.8%
DAL would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
36 bullish · 0 bearish · 44 covering DAL
Strong Buy
2
Buy
34
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$82
+12.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $124
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $47.9B
DAL price targets
Three scenarios for where DAL stock could go
Current
~$73
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $73
Base
$87
Bull
$124
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$87+19.2%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
DAL · NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesDecember year-end
Delta Air Lines is a major global airline providing scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation services. It generates revenue primarily from passenger tickets — with premium cabin and loyalty program revenue being significant contributors — supplemented by cargo operations and maintenance services. Its competitive advantage lies in its extensive hub-and-spoke network with fortress hubs in key markets like Atlanta, Detroit, and Minneapolis, combined with its industry-leading SkyMiles loyalty program that drives premium revenue.
Market Cap
$47.9B
Revenue TTM
$63.4B
Net Income TTM
$5.0B
Net Margin
7.9%
DAL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.10/$2.06
Revenue
$16.6B/$15.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.71/$1.57
Revenue
$16.7B/$15.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.55/$1.53
Revenue
$14.6B/$14.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.64/$0.58
Revenue
$14.2B/$14.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.10/$2.06 | +1.9% | $16.6B/$15.5B | +7.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.71/$1.57 | +8.9% | $16.7B/$15.1B | +10.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.55/$1.53 | +1.3% | $14.6B/$14.7B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.64/$0.58 | +10.3% | $14.2B/$14.0B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$67.6B
+6.6% YoY
FY2
$73.4B
+8.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.34
-3.9% YoY
FY2
$9.13
+24.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.8B
FCF Margin: 6.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DAL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DAL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $61.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Airline
92.5%
+4.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States
70.6%
+6.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Airline is the largest disclosed segment at 92.5% of FY 2024 revenue, up 4.3% YoY.
United States is the largest reported region at 70.6%, up 6.5% YoY.
DAL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $247 — implies +258.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
258.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DAL
9.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
62% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
DAL
9.6x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
63% discount
vs DAL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
9.6x
vs
5Y Average
26.2x
63% discount
Forward PE
13.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-29%
Industrials
20.8x
-35%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
9.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-62%
Industrials
25.9x
-63%
5Y Avg
26.2x
-63%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-49%
Industrials
13.9x
-44%
5Y Avg
8.5x
-8%
Price/FCF
12.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-42%
Industrials
20.6x
-40%
5Y Avg
16.0x
-22%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-76%
Industrials
1.6x
-52%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+24%
Dividend Yield
0.92%
S&P 500
1.88%
-51%
Industrials
1.24%
-26%
5Y Avg
0.76%
+21%
| Metric | DAL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.6x | 19.1x-29% | 20.8x-35% | — |
| Trailing PE | 9.6x | 25.2x-62% | 25.9x-63% | 26.2x-63% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8x | 15.3x-49% | 13.9x-44% | 8.5x |
| Price/FCF | 12.5x | 21.3x-42% | 20.6x-40% | 16.0x-22% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-76% | 1.6x-52% | 0.6x+24% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.92% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.76% |
DAL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDAL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DAL 12.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$63.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
24.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.63
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.4× FCF
~4.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
24.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.67
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
8.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
654M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDAL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturns & Recessions
A recession can sharply reduce business and premium travel demand, increasing Delta’s earnings volatility. Historically, Delta’s stock has shown higher swings during market downturns compared to the broader market.
High Risk
Fuel Price Volatility
Jet fuel is a major operating cost; sudden spikes can erode profitability even with hedging strategies. Delta’s exposure to oil price swings directly impacts earnings margins.
High Risk
Pandemic & Health Crises
Global health emergencies, as seen with COVID‑19, can halt travel demand, trigger restrictions, and strain liquidity. Such events can cause severe revenue contractions and operational disruptions.
Medium
Debt & Financial Obligations
Delta has increased its debt levels during the pandemic, resulting in a high debt‑to‑equity ratio. Elevated fixed obligations raise financing costs and limit capital flexibility.
Medium
Intense Competition & Capacity Expansion
Low‑cost carriers and rivals aggressively price and expand capacity on key routes, pressuring Delta’s market share and yields. Competitive pressure can erode revenue per available seat mile.
Medium
Technology Failures
Delta’s operations rely heavily on IT systems for booking, flight operations, and customer service. System outages can cause significant disruptions, financial losses, and reputational damage.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DAL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust 2025 Revenue & Earnings Growth
Delta’s 2025 revenue reached $63.36 billion with earnings of $5.01 billion, a substantial increase from the prior year. The company also reported strong quarterly EPS that beat expectations and continues to generate significant free cash flow.
Premium‑Cabin & Loyalty Revenue Focus
Delta’s strategy centers on premium cabins, loyalty revenue, and expanding international routes, targeting higher‑yield customers. This focus is viewed as a resilience factor, potentially allowing Delta to outperform competitors during economic downturns.
Cost Efficiency & Fuel Savings
The airline demonstrates operational efficiency, managing production costs and achieving structural cost savings. Expected reductions in jet fuel expenses, coupled with flat capacity growth and aircraft retirements, are projected to enhance profit margins.
Strong Balance Sheet & Low Leverage
Delta maintains a strong balance sheet with relatively low leverage compared to industry peers. The ratio of net debt and leases to assets has declined, rivaling Southwest Airlines in financial leverage.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DAL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$73.32
52W Range Position
90%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$44.10
+66.3% from the low
52-Week High
$76.39
-4.0% from the high
1 Month
+9.79%
3 Month
-2.69%
YTD
+6.2%
1 Year
+63.6%
3Y CAGR
+28.9%
5Y CAGR
+10.3%
10Y CAGR
+5.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DAL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.6x
vs 13.1x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.6%
vs +10.1% median
-35% below peer median
Net Margin
7.9%
vs 0.7% median
+1025% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DAL DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | $47.9B | 13.6x | +6.6% | 7.9% | Buy | +12.5% |
UAL UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $32.5B | 10.7x | +10.6% | 6.1% | Buy | +36.1% |
AAL AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | $8.5B | — | +8.4% | 0.4% | Buy | +22.9% |
LUV LUV Southwest Airlines Co. | $20.4B | 15.6x | +10.1% | 2.8% | Hold | +20.2% |
ALK ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. | $4.6B | — | +18.4% | 0.7% | Buy | +65.4% |
JBL JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation | $1.9B | — | +5.4% | -7.8% | Hold | +22.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DAL Dividend and Capital Return
DAL returns 0.9% total yield, led by a 0.95% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.95%
Payout Ratio
8.8%
How DAL Splits Its Return
Div 0.95%
Dividend 0.95%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.67
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
10.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
654M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.68 | +35.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $0.50 | +150.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 2023 | $0.20 | — | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2020 | $0.40 | -73.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsDAL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 36 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $82, implying +12.5% from the current price of $73.
02What is the DAL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DAL is $82 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $88 (+20.0% from today), and the low-end target is $77 (+5.0%). The base case model target is $87.
03Is Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) stock overvalued in 2026?
DAL trades at 13.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DAL in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturns & Recessions — A recession can sharply reduce business and premium travel demand, increasing Delta’s earnings volatility. (2) Fuel Price Volatility — Jet fuel is a major operating cost; sudden spikes can erode profitability even with hedging strategies. (3) Pandemic & Health Crises — Global health emergencies, as seen with COVID‑19, can halt travel demand, trigger restrictions, and strain liquidity. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DAL will report consensus revenue of $67.6B (+6.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.34 (-3.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $73.4B in revenue.
06When does Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DAL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Delta Air Lines, Inc. generate?
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) generated $3.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.1%. DAL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).