Upside case
Bull case
$287+187.2%
UAL would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
47
analysts
31 bullish · 0 bearish · 47 covering UAL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
16
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$136
+36.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $287
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
47
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $32.5B
UAL price targets
Three scenarios for where UAL stock could go
Current
~$100
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $100
Base
$160
Bull
$287
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$160+59.6%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
UAL · NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesDecember year-end
United Airlines is a major global airline that transports passengers and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets across six continents. It generates revenue primarily from passenger tickets (~85% of revenue) and cargo services, supplemented by loyalty program sales and third-party services like maintenance and training. Its competitive advantage lies in its extensive global route network — particularly its strong Pacific presence — and strategic hub-and-spoke system anchored at major airports like Chicago O'Hare and Newark.
Market Cap
$32.5B
Revenue TTM
$60.5B
Net Income TTM
$3.7B
Net Margin
6.1%
UAL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+16.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.87/$3.81
Revenue
$15.2B/$15.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.78/$2.65
Revenue
$15.2B/$15.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.10/$2.93
Revenue
$15.4B/$15.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.19/$1.08
Revenue
$14.6B/$14.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.87/$3.81 | +1.6% | $15.2B/$15.4B | -0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.78/$2.65 | +4.9% | $15.2B/$15.3B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.10/$2.93 | +5.8% | $15.4B/$15.4B | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.19/$1.08 | +10.2% | $14.6B/$14.4B | +1.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$66.9B
+10.6% YoY
FY2
$72.7B
+8.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.07
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$16.31
+35.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.2B
FCF Margin: 5.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UAL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
UAL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $55.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Passenger
96.8%
+3.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International
59.3%
+2.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Passenger is the largest disclosed segment at 96.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.1% YoY.
International is the largest reported region at 59.3%, up 2.8% YoY.
UAL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $161 — implies +73.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
73.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UAL
9.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
61% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
UAL
9.8x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
62% discount
vs UAL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
9.8x
vs
5Y Average
10.8x
10% discount
Forward PE
10.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-44%
Industrials
20.8x
-49%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
9.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-61%
Industrials
25.9x
-62%
5Y Avg
10.8x
-10%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-51%
Industrials
13.9x
-46%
5Y Avg
10.9x
-31%
Price/FCF
12.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-40%
Industrials
20.6x
-38%
5Y Avg
10.9x
+16%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-82%
Industrials
1.6x
-65%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+20%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Industrials
1.24%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | UAL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg UAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.7x | 19.1x-44% | 20.8x-49% | — |
| Trailing PE | 9.8x | 25.2x-61% | 25.9x-62% | 10.8x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5x | 15.3x-51% | 13.9x-46% | 10.9x-31% |
| Price/FCF | 12.7x | 21.3x-40% | 20.6x-38% | 10.9x+16% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-82% | 1.6x-65% | 0.5x+20% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.24% | — |
UAL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUAL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
UAL returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$60.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
64.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.21
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$25.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.8× FCF
~7.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
24.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (9.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
2.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$637M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
325M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageUAL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Fuel Price Volatility
Aircraft fuel is a major operating expense for United Airlines, and its price is subject to significant fluctuations. While United employs hedging strategies, studies suggest these may not fully insulate the stock price from jet fuel price changes, potentially materially impacting operating results, financial condition, and liquidity.
High Risk
Economic Sensitivity & Recessions
The airline industry is highly cyclical and vulnerable to economic downturns. United’s heavy exposure to business and premium travel, coupled with its focus on international routes, could make earnings per share significantly hit in a recession, as the company has modeled scenarios where a downturn materially impacts profitability.
High Risk
Debt & Financing
United Airlines carries a substantial amount of long‑term debt, primarily for capital expenditures and aircraft acquisitions. This results in relatively high debt‑to‑equity and total debt ratios compared to some competitors, limiting financial flexibility and requiring significant profits to cover interest expenses.
Medium
Operational Challenges
United has faced operational hurdles such as production delays from Boeing, which can impact fleet plans and financial positions. Staffing shortages and technological deficiencies have also been noted as ongoing operational challenges.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
The airline industry is intensely competitive, with low‑cost carriers and overcapacity on domestic routes. Pricing competition can affect revenue metrics like Total Revenue Per Available Seat Mile (TRASM), potentially eroding margins.
Lower
Seasonality
The airline industry experiences seasonality, with higher demand and revenues typically seen in the second and third quarters due to increased travel during spring and summer months.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UAL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
FCF Conversion Rate Upswing
United Airlines expects to lift its free‑cash‑flow conversion from roughly 50 % of adjusted net income to a long‑term target of 75 % by the end of the decade. The company projects continued FCF growth beyond 2026, driven by margin expansion from accelerated aircraft deliveries.
Premium‑Seat Revenue Growth
The airline’s Polaris and Premium Plus offerings are generating premium revenue that is outpacing standard‑economy sales. This premium focus is a key driver for sustaining higher profit margins.
Basic Economy vs. LCCs
United’s Basic Economy product competes directly with low‑cost carriers, matching their price point while delivering the benefits of United’s larger network and loyalty program. This strategy helps defend market share and protect margins.
2026 Record Earnings Forecast
United projects adjusted earnings per share of $12 to $14 in 2026, supported by strong revenue growth and operational performance. The outlook reflects confidence in the company’s profitability trajectory.
Fleet Expansion & Premium Shift
The airline plans to deliver over 100 narrow‑body and 20 wide‑body aircraft in 2026, and 250 new aircraft by 2028 under the “United Next” transformation. The shift to larger, more efficient planes and a premium‑heavy service model is expected to accelerate margin expansion.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UAL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$100.03
52W Range Position
60%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$71.55
+39.8% from the low
52-Week High
$119.21
-16.1% from the high
1 Month
+9.96%
3 Month
-13.70%
YTD
-11.5%
1 Year
+36.1%
3Y CAGR
+29.7%
5Y CAGR
+13.5%
10Y CAGR
+8.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UAL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.7x
vs 14.6x median
-27% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.6%
vs +8.4% median
+26% above peer median
Net Margin
6.1%
vs 0.7% median
+763% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UAL UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $32.5B | 10.7x | +10.6% | 6.1% | Buy | +36.1% |
DAL DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | $47.9B | 13.6x | +6.6% | 7.9% | Buy | +12.5% |
AAL AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | $8.5B | — | +8.4% | 0.4% | Buy | +22.9% |
LUV LUV Southwest Airlines Co. | $20.4B | 15.6x | +10.1% | 2.8% | Hold | +20.2% |
ALK ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. | $4.6B | — | +18.4% | 0.7% | Buy | +65.4% |
JBL JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation | $1.9B | — | +5.4% | -7.8% | Hold | +22.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UAL Dividend and Capital Return
UAL returns 2.0% annually — null% through dividends and 2.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$637M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
325M
At 2.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | $2.15 | — | 0.8% | 18.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsUAL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $136, implying +36.1% from the current price of $100.
02What is the UAL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UAL is $136 based on 47 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $150 (+50.0% from today), and the low-end target is $112 (+12.0%). The base case model target is $160.
03Is United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) stock overvalued in 2026?
UAL trades at 10.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UAL in 2026 are: (1) Fuel Price Volatility — Aircraft fuel is a major operating expense for United Airlines, and its price is subject to significant fluctuations. (2) Economic Sensitivity & Recessions — The airline industry is highly cyclical and vulnerable to economic downturns. (3) Debt & Financing — United Airlines carries a substantial amount of long‑term debt, primarily for capital expenditures and aircraft acquisitions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UAL will report consensus revenue of $66.9B (+10.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.07 (+7.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $72.7B in revenue.
06When does United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UAL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does United Airlines Holdings, Inc. generate?
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) generated $3.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.3%. UAL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($637M TTM).