Upside case
Bull case
$324-0.1%
The bull case prices PEN at 65x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering PEN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$372
+14.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $324
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
65.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.7B
PEN price targets
Three scenarios for where PEN stock could go
Current
~$324
Confidence
75 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $324
Base
$458
Bull
$324
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$458+41.2%
At 92x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Penumbra, Inc.
PEN · NYSEHealthcareMedical - DevicesDecember year-end
Penumbra is a medical device company specializing in minimally invasive neurovascular and peripheral vascular therapies. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its proprietary thrombectomy systems—which remove blood clots—and embolization devices, with neurovascular products representing the largest segment. The company's competitive advantage lies in its innovative aspiration-based technology platform that offers differentiated clinical outcomes in stroke treatment and other vascular conditions.
Market Cap
$12.7B
Revenue TTM
$1.5B
Net Income TTM
$171M
Net Margin
11.8%
PEN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+25.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.83/$0.66
Revenue
$324M/$327M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.86/$0.81
Revenue
$339M/$341M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.97/$0.93
Revenue
$355M/$341M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.18/$1.11
Revenue
$385M/$362M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.83/$0.66 | +25.8% | $324M/$327M | -1.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.86/$0.81 | +6.2% | $339M/$341M | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.97/$0.93 | +4.4% | $355M/$341M | +4.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.18/$1.11 | +6.3% | $385M/$362M | +6.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.6B
+17.1% YoY
FY2
$1.9B
+17.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.29
+17.2% YoY
FY2
$6.38
+20.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$213M
FCF Margin: 14.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PEN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
PEN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
77.8%
+21.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 77.8%, up 21.0% YoY.
PEN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $637 — implies +95.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
95.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PEN
71.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+184% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
PEN
71.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+224% premium
vs PEN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
71.7x
vs
5Y Average
88.6x
19% discount
Forward PE
65.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+241%
Healthcare
19.0x
+242%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
71.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
+184%
Healthcare
22.1x
+224%
5Y Avg
88.6x
-19%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
61.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
+305%
Healthcare
14.1x
+337%
5Y Avg
78.9x
-22%
Price/FCF
72.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+242%
Healthcare
18.7x
+291%
5Y Avg
84.4x
-14%
Price/Sales
9.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+190%
Healthcare
2.8x
+219%
5Y Avg
10.1x
-10%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | PEN | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg PEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 65.1x | 19.1x+241% | 19.0x+242% | — |
| Trailing PE | 71.7x | 25.2x+184% | 22.1x+224% | 88.6x-19% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 61.8x | 15.3x+305% | 14.1x+337% | 78.9x-22% |
| Price/FCF | 72.9x | 21.3x+242% | 18.7x+291% | 84.4x-14% |
| Price/Sales | 9.1x | 3.1x+190% | 2.8x+219% | 10.1x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
PEN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPEN Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PEN generates $213M in free cash flow at a 14.6% margin — 11.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+17.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.33
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$213M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$187M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$33M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
39M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePEN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Mediocre Free Cash Flow Margin
Penumbra has demonstrated a subpar average free cash flow margin of 1.9% over the last five years. This limited cash profitability restricts the company's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities and return capital to shareholders.
High Risk
Inefficient Growth Initiatives
The company's five-year average Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) was negative 2.4%, indicating that past growth initiatives have not generated positive returns. This inefficiency in expanding the business poses a significant risk to future profitability.
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
Penumbra's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 72.1, significantly higher than the industry median of 25.2. This 'Ultra Expensive' valuation grade raises concerns about the sustainability of its stock price amid potential market corrections.
Medium
Limited Distribution Channels
As a smaller player in the medical device industry, Penumbra struggles to establish trust with customers due to the complex and regulated nature of healthcare. This limitation in distribution channels could hinder its market penetration and growth.
Medium
Product Approval Delays
Delays in obtaining approvals for new products can significantly impact Penumbra's growth trajectory. Such setbacks may prevent the company from capitalizing on market opportunities and expanding its product offerings.
Medium
Reimbursement Landscape
A less favorable reimbursement environment could limit physician engagement and slow down the acquisition of new customers. This risk is particularly pertinent in the healthcare sector, where reimbursement policies directly affect sales.
Lower
Operational Performance Risks
Penumbra's ability to manage integration and maintain product margins is under pressure, especially amid competitive challenges and uncertainties surrounding clinical trials. These operational risks could affect overall performance but are less immediate than other factors.
Lower
Market Headwinds
While revenue growth is anticipated, Penumbra may face market headwinds that could impact its performance. These external factors could arise from economic conditions or shifts in the healthcare landscape.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PEN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Undervalued Stock
PENN Entertainment is currently trading at a discount to its GF Value™ estimate, indicating potential undervaluation. Its current P/E ratio is below its 5-year median, suggesting an attractive entry point for investors.
Improving Interactive Segment
Recent Q1 results show significant improvement in the Interactive segment, with losses narrowing considerably year-over-year. The company has provided guidance for 2026, projecting breakeven interactive EBITDA.
Strong Retail Performance and Project Growth
Physical casino projects are expected to generate strong cash-on-cash returns, contributing to incremental annual cash flow. Recent Q1 results also showed revenue increases in the Midwest and West regions, driven by project ramp-ups.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The consensus analyst rating for PENN Entertainment is 'Buy,' with an average price target indicating a potential increase in stock price over the next year. This positive sentiment reflects confidence in the company's future performance.
Insider Buying
Recent insider buying activity indicates positive sentiment from company leadership, suggesting that those closest to the company believe in its future prospects.
Strategic Focus on Organic Growth
PENN is focusing on organic cross-sell opportunities, reinforced by investments in owned technology and an in-house iCasino content studio. This strategic realignment aims to target profitability in iCasino and Canadian markets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PEN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$324.19
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$221.26
+46.5% from the low
52-Week High
$362.41
-10.5% from the high
1 Month
-1.72%
3 Month
-4.94%
YTD
+4.8%
1 Year
+11.0%
3Y CAGR
+1.4%
5Y CAGR
+3.4%
10Y CAGR
+19.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PEN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
65.1x
vs 19.3x median
+237% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+17.1%
vs +9.9% median
+72% above peer median
Net Margin
11.8%
vs 12.9% median
-9% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PEN PEN Penumbra, Inc. | $12.7B | 65.1x | +17.1% | 11.8% | Hold | +14.7% |
ISR ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | $160.4B | 43.7x | +14.2% | 28.2% | Buy | +37.8% |
NVC NVCR NovoCure Limited | $1.9B | — | +6.5% | -25.7% | Buy | +103.1% |
NVS NVST Envista Holdings Corp | $4.5B | 19.2x | +6.9% | 2.4% | Hold | -0.2% |
INV INVA Innoviva, Inc. | $1.9B | 11.8x | +11.8% | 118.9% | Buy | +67.3% |
SYK SYK Stryker Corporation | $112.0B | 19.5x | +9.9% | 12.9% | Buy | +38.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsPEN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $372, implying +14.7% from the current price of $324.
02What is the PEN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PEN is $372 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $388 (+19.7% from today), and the low-end target is $349 (+7.7%). The base case model target is $458.
03Is Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) stock overvalued in 2026?
PEN trades at 65.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PEN in 2026 are: (1) Mediocre Free Cash Flow Margin — Penumbra has demonstrated a subpar average free cash flow margin of 1. (2) Inefficient Growth Initiatives — The company's five-year average Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) was negative 2. (3) Valuation Concerns — Penumbra's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 72. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Penumbra, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PEN will report consensus revenue of $1.6B (+17.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.29 (+17.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.9B in revenue.
06When does Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PEN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Penumbra, Inc. generate?
Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) generated $213M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.6%. PEN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).