Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing QXO more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
QXO, Inc. (QXO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
7
analysts
7 bullish · 0 bearish · 7 covering QXO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$29
+65.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
7
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
54.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.9B
QXO price targets
Three scenarios for where QXO stock could go
Current
~$18
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
QXO, Inc.
QXO · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
QXO is a business software and consulting firm that provides enterprise resource planning, accounting, and IT managed services to small and medium-sized businesses. It generates revenue through software licensing and subscriptions — primarily from its ERP and business management platforms — supplemented by consulting, training, and technical support services. The company's moat comes from its deep industry specialization in manufacturing and distribution sectors, where it offers integrated solutions that combine software with specialized consulting expertise.
Market Cap
$12.9B
Revenue TTM
$8.6B
Net Income TTM
-$515M
Net Margin
-6.0%
QXO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-93.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.11/$0.04
Revenue
$1.9B/$2.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.14/$0.12
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.02/$0.02
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.12/$-0.10
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.11/$0.04 | +175.0% | $1.9B/$2.8B | -31.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.14/$0.12 | +16.7% | $2.7B/$2.2B | +24.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.02/$0.02 | +1.9% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.12/$-0.10 | -24.8% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.3B
+20.9% YoY
FY2
$12.5B
+20.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.46
+32.8% YoY
FY2
$-0.30
+35.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$196M
FCF Margin: 2.3%
Next Earnings
August 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.11
Expected Revenue
$3.3B
QXO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
QXO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
QXO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $4 — implies -77.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
77.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
QXO
-28.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
215% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
QXO
-28.2x
vs
Technology
29.0x
197% discount
vs QXO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-28.2x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
54.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+192%
Technology
22.3x
+147%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-28.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-215%
Technology
29.0x
-197%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
41.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+169%
Technology
16.6x
+146%
5Y Avg
38.1x
+8%
Price/FCF
70.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+240%
Technology
19.2x
+266%
5Y Avg
70.5x
-0%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Technology
2.4x
-23%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+9%
Dividend Yield
0.96%
S&P 500
1.91%
-50%
Technology
1.11%
-13%
5Y Avg
0.29%
+232%
| Metric | QXO | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg QXO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 54.9x | 18.8x+192% | 22.3x+147% | — |
| Trailing PE | -28.2x | 24.4x-215% | 29.0x-197% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 41.0x | 15.2x+169% | 16.6x+146% | 38.1x |
| Price/FCF | 70.3x | 20.7x+240% | 19.2x+266% | 70.5x |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 2.4x-23% | 1.7x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.29% |
QXO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolQXO Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for QXO are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15209.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-4.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-6.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.69
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$196M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-3.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.8× FCF
~10.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-5.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.0%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.17
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
725M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageQXO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Integration risks
QXO's aggressive acquisition strategy, including the $17-billion TopBuild deal, poses significant integration challenges that could disrupt operations and profitability.
High Risk
Debt burden
The company's acquisition spree may lead to a substantial increase in debt, raising concerns about financial stability and leverage ratios.
Medium
Competitive pressure
Investors may favor rivals like IBP due to QXO's high-risk growth approach, potentially impacting market share and valuation.
Medium
Disclosed risk factors
QXO's recent earnings report highlights 50 risk factors, indicating a wide range of potential challenges that could affect performance.
Lower
Execution uncertainty
The potential for massive EBITDA growth is accompanied by execution risks, including operational and strategic missteps.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why QXO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Industry consolidation strategy
Brad Jacobs plans to consolidate the $800 billion U.S. building products distribution industry through acquisitions and technology, leveraging his proven M&A playbook.
Investor confidence growth
QXO's stock price has appreciated by approximately 86.51% due to increasing investor confidence in the company's strategy and performance.
Detailed financial projections
Kairos Research emphasizes detailed financial projections, margin targets, and IRR scenarios that support the bullish thesis on QXO.
Investor Q&A insights
The May 11 Investor Q&A materially upgraded several key assumptions, covering the TopBuild rationale, integration plan, technology roadmap, and financial model.
Technology roadmap potential
QXO's technology roadmap is a key component of their strategy, contributing to the bullish outlook on the company's future growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
QXO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$17.76
52W Range Position
23%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$14.75
+20.4% from the low
52-Week High
$27.61
-35.7% from the high
1 Month
+6.35%
3 Month
-11.77%
YTD
-9.9%
1 Year
-21.1%
3Y CAGR
-55.0%
5Y CAGR
-49.1%
10Y CAGR
-16.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
QXO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
54.9x
vs 18.8x median
+192% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+20.9%
vs +4.2% median
+398% above peer median
Net Margin
-6.0%
vs 7.6% median
-179% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QXO QXO QXO, Inc. | $12.9B | 54.9x | +20.9% | -6.0% | Buy | +65.1% |
IBP IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $5.9B | 21.5x | +7.2% | 8.6% | Hold | +15.7% |
BLD BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $8.9B | 18.8x | +0.2% | 2.0% | Buy | +32.0% |
POO POOL Pool Corporation | $7.3B | 18.0x | +3.4% | 7.6% | Buy | +38.2% |
HD HD The Home Depot, Inc. | $333.0B | 22.4x | +4.2% | 8.4% | Buy | +11.9% |
LOW LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. | $124.5B | 17.8x | +4.5% | 7.5% | Buy | +25.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
QXO Dividend and Capital Return
QXO returns 1.0% total yield, led by a 0.96% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.96%
Payout Ratio
—
How QXO Splits Its Return
Div 0.96%
Dividend 0.96%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.17
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
725M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $26.19 | +1536.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021 | $4.80 | -33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020 | $7.20 | +1700.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019 | $0.40 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsQXO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is QXO, Inc. (QXO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
QXO, Inc. (QXO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 7 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $29, implying +65.1% from the current price of $18.
02What is the QXO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for QXO is $29 based on 7 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $32 (+80.2% from today), and the low-end target is $26 (+46.4%).
03Is QXO, Inc. (QXO) stock overvalued in 2026?
QXO trades at 54.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for QXO, Inc. (QXO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for QXO in 2026 are: (1) Integration risks — QXO's aggressive acquisition strategy, including the $17-billion TopBuild deal, poses significant integration challenges that could disrupt operations and profitability. (2) Debt burden — The company's acquisition spree may lead to a substantial increase in debt, raising concerns about financial stability and leverage ratios. (3) Competitive pressure — Investors may favor rivals like IBP due to QXO's high-risk growth approach, potentially impacting market share and valuation. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is QXO, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates QXO will report consensus revenue of $10.3B (+20.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.46 (+32.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.5B in revenue.
06When does QXO, Inc. (QXO) report its next earnings?
QXO, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-13. Consensus expects EPS of $0.11 and revenue of $3.3B. Over recent quarters, QXO has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does QXO, Inc. generate?
QXO, Inc. (QXO) generated $196M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.3%. QXO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).