Upside case
Bull case
$498+49.0%
HD would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
62
analysts
38 bullish · 4 bearish · 62 covering HD
Strong Buy
1
Buy
37
Hold
20
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$374
+11.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$238 – $498
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
62
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $333.0B
HD price targets
Three scenarios for where HD stock could go
Current
~$334
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $334
Bear
$238
Base
$378
Bull
$498
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$378+13.1%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$238-28.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push HD down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Home Depot, Inc.
HD · NYSEConsumer CyclicalHome ImprovementFebruary year-end
The Home Depot is the world's largest home improvement retailer selling building materials, tools, appliances, and garden products. It generates revenue primarily from retail store sales — about 90% of total revenue — with the remainder from professional contractor services and installation offerings. Its competitive advantage lies in massive scale, extensive store network, and strong brand recognition that creates a one-stop-shop moat for DIY homeowners and professional contractors alike.
Market Cap
$333.0B
Revenue TTM
$166.6B
Net Income TTM
$14.0B
Net Margin
8.4%
HD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.68/$4.72
Revenue
$45.3B/$45.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.74/$3.83
Revenue
$41.4B/$41.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.72/$2.53
Revenue
$38.2B/$38.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.43/$3.41
Revenue
$41.8B/$41.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.68/$4.72 | -0.8% | $45.3B/$45.4B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.74/$3.83 | -2.3% | $41.4B/$41.2B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.72/$2.53 | +7.5% | $38.2B/$38.1B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.43/$3.41 | +0.6% | $41.8B/$41.6B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$173.6B
+4.2% YoY
FY2
$179.3B
+3.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$15.05
+7.0% YoY
FY2
$16.09
+6.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$14.3B
FCF Margin: 8.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HD beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
HD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $156.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Appliances
8.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
92.4%
+3.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Appliances is the largest disclosed segment at 8.9% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 92.4%, up 3.5% YoY.
HD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Premium mostly justified
Fair value est. $286 — implies -14.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
14.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HD
23.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
HD
23.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+11% premium
vs HD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.5x
vs
5Y Average
24.0x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
22.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+19%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+37%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-4%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+11%
5Y Avg
24.0x
-2%
PEG Ratio
6.58x
S&P 500
1.66x
+296%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+612%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+8%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+35%
5Y Avg
16.7x
-1%
Price/FCF
26.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+27%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+69%
5Y Avg
26.1x
+1%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-35%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+190%
5Y Avg
2.4x
-14%
Dividend Yield
2.75%
S&P 500
1.91%
+44%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+26%
5Y Avg
2.24%
+23%
| Metric | HD | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg HD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.4x | 18.8x+19% | 16.3x+37% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.5x | 24.4x | 21.2x+11% | 24.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 6.58x | 1.66x+296% | 0.92x+612% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.4x | 15.2x | 12.2x+35% | 16.7x |
| Price/FCF | 26.3x | 20.7x+27% | 15.6x+69% | 26.1x |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-35% | 0.7x+190% | 2.4x-14% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.75% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 2.24% |
HD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHD Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HD generates $14.3B in free cash flow at a 8.6% margin — 21.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$166.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.07
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$14.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
21.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$64.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.5× FCF
~4.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
113.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (21.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$9.18
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
64.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
996M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageHD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Weak consumer spending
Higher interest rates or an economic downturn could hinder sales for home improvement projects.
High Risk
Housing market pressure
Softening housing demand and market conditions are negatively impacting Home Depot's performance.
Medium
Lack of growth catalysts
Resilient shares but weak demand and cautious management guidance limit upside potential.
Medium
Pro customer risks
Dependence on Pro customers exposes Home Depot to cyclical demand fluctuations.
Lower
Competitive automation trends
Emerging smart home solutions (e.g., Google Home) may shift consumer spending away from traditional DIY.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong Return on Equity
HD boasts a massive 141.03% Return on Equity (ROE), highlighting its ability to generate profits from shareholder investments.
Reaffirmed Guidance
Home Depot reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, signaling confidence in its financial outlook despite lower net income year over year.
Quarterly Dividend
The company announced a quarterly dividend of US$2.33 per share, appealing to income-focused investors.
Wide Moat
HD is described as having a wide moat, indicating a sustainable competitive advantage in its industry.
Hyper-Growth Potential
The bull case emphasizes HD as a profitable, hyper-growth company, attracting investors seeking long-term growth.
Market Position
Home Depot's strong market position and brand recognition contribute to its bullish investment case.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$334.28
52W Range Position
33%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$289.10
+15.6% from the low
52-Week High
$426.75
-21.7% from the high
1 Month
+11.50%
3 Month
+1.01%
YTD
-3.3%
1 Year
-3.7%
3Y CAGR
+3.5%
5Y CAGR
+2.0%
10Y CAGR
+10.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.4x
vs 18.8x median
+19% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.2%
vs +4.5% median
-7% below peer median
Net Margin
8.4%
vs 4.3% median
+97% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HD HD The Home Depot, Inc. | $333.0B | 22.4x | +4.2% | 8.4% | Buy | +11.9% |
LOW LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. | $124.5B | 17.8x | +4.5% | 7.5% | Buy | +25.7% |
TSC TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $15.9B | 14.3x | +5.4% | 6.9% | Buy | +75.3% |
FND FND Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | $5.7B | 27.7x | +8.0% | 4.3% | Hold | +19.1% |
BLD BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $8.9B | 18.8x | +0.2% | 2.0% | Buy | +32.0% |
MNR MNRO Monro, Inc. | $467M | 28.5x | +1.1% | 0.2% | Hold | +80.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HD Dividend and Capital Return
HD returns 2.7% total yield, led by a 2.75% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.75%
Payout Ratio
64.7%
How HD Splits Its Return
Div 2.75%
Dividend 2.75%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$9.18
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.6%
5Y Div CAGR
8.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
996M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.66 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $9.20 | +2.2% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 2024 | $9.00 | +7.7% | 0.2% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $8.36 | +10.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% |
| 2022 | $7.60 | +15.2% | 2.1% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsHD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 62 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $374, implying +11.9% from the current price of $334. The bear case scenario is $238 and the bull case is $498.
02What is the HD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HD is $374 based on 62 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $435 (+30.1% from today), and the low-end target is $320 (-4.3%). The base case model target is $378.
03Is The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) stock overvalued in 2026?
HD trades at 22.4x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals premium mostly justified. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HD in 2026 are: (1) Weak consumer spending — Higher interest rates or an economic downturn could hinder sales for home improvement projects. (2) Housing market pressure — Softening housing demand and market conditions are negatively impacting Home Depot's performance. (3) Lack of growth catalysts — Resilient shares but weak demand and cautious management guidance limit upside potential. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Home Depot, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HD will report consensus revenue of $173.6B (+4.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $15.05 (+7.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $179.3B in revenue.
06When does The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Home Depot, Inc. generate?
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) generated $14.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.6%. HD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).