Upside case
Bull case
$481+52.6%
HD would need investors to value it at roughly 32x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
62
analysts
38 bullish · 4 bearish · 62 covering HD
Strong Buy
1
Buy
37
Hold
20
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$408
+29.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$291 – $481
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
62
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $313.3B
HD price targets
Three scenarios for where HD stock could go
Current
~$315
Confidence
71 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $315
Bear
$291
Base
$350
Bull
$481
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$350+11.1%
This is close to how the market is already pricing HD — at roughly 23x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$291-7.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push HD down roughly 8% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Home Depot, Inc.
HD · NYSEConsumer CyclicalHome ImprovementFebruary year-end
The Home Depot is the world's largest home improvement retailer selling building materials, tools, appliances, and garden products. It generates revenue primarily from retail store sales — about 90% of total revenue — with the remainder from professional contractor services and installation offerings. Its competitive advantage lies in massive scale, extensive store network, and strong brand recognition that creates a one-stop-shop moat for DIY homeowners and professional contractors alike.
Market Cap
$313.3B
Revenue TTM
$164.7B
Net Income TTM
$14.2B
Net Margin
8.6%
HD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$3.56/$3.60
Revenue
$39.9B/$39.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$4.68/$4.72
Revenue
$45.3B/$45.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.74/$3.83
Revenue
$41.4B/$41.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.72/$2.53
Revenue
$38.2B/$38.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $3.56/$3.60 | -1.1% | $39.9B/$39.3B | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.68/$4.72 | -0.8% | $45.3B/$45.4B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.74/$3.83 | -2.3% | $41.4B/$41.2B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.72/$2.53 | +7.5% | $38.2B/$38.1B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$170.7B
+3.6% YoY
FY2
$176.6B
+3.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.94
+5.2% YoY
FY2
$15.81
+5.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.6B
FCF Margin: 7.7%
Next Earnings
May 19, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.42
Expected Revenue
$41.6B
HD beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
HD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $159.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Major Product Line - Building Materials
33.1%
+0.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
92.2%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Major Product Line - Building Materials is the largest disclosed segment at 33.1% of FY 2024 revenue, up 0.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 92.2%, up 4.9% YoY.
HD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $442 — implies +36.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
36.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HD
22.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
12% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
HD
22.2x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+15% premium
vs HD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.2x
vs
5Y Average
24.1x
8% discount
Forward PE
21.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+10%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+39%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-12%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+15%
5Y Avg
24.1x
-8%
PEG Ratio
6.20x
S&P 500
1.72x
+261%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+581%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-10%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+21%
5Y Avg
16.3x
-16%
Price/FCF
24.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
+18%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+70%
5Y Avg
26.2x
-5%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+166%
5Y Avg
2.4x
-20%
Dividend Yield
2.91%
S&P 500
1.87%
+56%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
+31%
5Y Avg
2.23%
+31%
| Metric | HD | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg HD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.0x | 19.1x | 15.1x+39% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.2x | 25.1x-12% | 19.3x+15% | 24.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 6.20x | 1.72x+261% | 0.91x+581% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7x | 15.2x-10% | 11.3x+21% | 16.3x-16% |
| Price/FCF | 24.8x | 21.1x+18% | 14.6x+70% | 26.2x |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 0.7x+166% | 2.4x-20% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.91% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 2.23% |
HD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHD Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HD 32.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$164.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.20
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
32.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$17.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.4× FCF
~1.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
110.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (32.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$9.18
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
64.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
997M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageHD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Housing Market Sensitivity
Home Depot’s revenue is tightly linked to the health of the housing market. A slowdown in new construction, existing home sales, or falling home prices can sharply cut demand for its products and services.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
The retailer’s complex supply chain is vulnerable to natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, global health crises, trade disputes, and logistical challenges. Stockouts, delayed deliveries, and higher costs can erode margins and customer satisfaction.
Medium
Intense Competition
Home Depot competes with Lowe’s, Menards, Amazon, and Walmart. Aggressive pricing, promotions, and expanded online offerings by rivals can erode market share and compress profitability.
Medium
Interest Rate Volatility
Rising rates discourage home buying and refinancing, limiting homeowners’ ability to finance renovations and reducing demand for Home Depot’s products.
Lower
Cybersecurity Threats
As a large retailer with significant online sales, Home Depot faces data breaches and cyberattacks that could result in financial losses, reputational damage, and regulatory penalties.
Lower
Stock Overvaluation
Some analysts argue that Home Depot’s valuation may be too high, exposing investors to potential downside if the market corrects.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
World’s Largest Home Improvement Retailer
Home Depot dominates the sector as the world’s largest home improvement retailer, leveraging economies of scale and strong brand equity to maintain a wide economic moat. Its operational excellence and well‑defined merchandising strategy have consistently driven robust returns, positioning it well for continued growth.
HVAC Expansion via Mingledorff Acquisition
The acquisition of Mingledorff’s Inc. broadens Home Depot’s total addressable market into HVAC, a high‑margin segment. This strategic move enhances product breadth and captures additional revenue streams beyond traditional DIY offerings.
Lower Interest Rates as Housing Tailwind
A potential shift toward lower interest rates is expected to stimulate the housing market, boosting demand for home improvement projects. This macro tailwind supports Home Depot’s sales growth as home values rise and existing home sales expand.
Strategic Growth: Automation, AI, and Acquisitions
Home Depot is investing in supply‑chain automation and AI‑powered customer tools to improve efficiency and customer experience. Acquisitions of GMS and SRS Distribution expand its specialty building products and roofing trade presence, while plans to open new stores and grow online channels further drive revenue.
Dividend Growth and Payout Sustainability
The company offers a meaningful dividend yield and has increased its dividend for 16 consecutive years, underscoring financial strength. A sustainable payout ratio supports ongoing dividend growth, appealing to income‑focused investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$315.22
52W Range Position
4%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$310.42
+1.5% from the low
52-Week High
$426.75
-26.1% from the high
1 Month
-3.50%
3 Month
-17.56%
YTD
-8.8%
1 Year
-12.9%
3Y CAGR
+2.9%
5Y CAGR
-1.0%
10Y CAGR
+8.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.0x
vs 17.9x median
+17% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.6%
vs +4.0% median
-9% below peer median
Net Margin
8.6%
vs 4.3% median
+101% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HD HD The Home Depot, Inc. | $313.3B | 21.0x | +3.6% | 8.6% | Buy | +29.5% |
LOW LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. | $126.1B | 17.9x | +5.4% | 7.7% | Buy | +28.0% |
TSC TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $17.2B | 15.3x | +4.0% | 6.9% | Buy | +72.3% |
FND FND Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | $5.2B | 24.4x | +5.5% | 4.3% | Hold | +30.8% |
BLD BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $8.2B | 13.2x | -3.3% | 2.0% | Buy | +47.4% |
MNR MNRO Monro, Inc. | $514M | 31.8x | -4.1% | -1.1% | Hold | +133.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HD Dividend and Capital Return
HD returns 2.9% total yield, led by a 2.91% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.91%
Payout Ratio
64.7%
How HD Splits Its Return
Div 2.91%
Dividend 2.91%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$9.18
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.6%
5Y Div CAGR
8.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
997M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.33 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $9.20 | +2.2% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 2024 | $9.00 | +7.7% | 0.2% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $8.36 | +10.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% |
| 2022 | $7.60 | +15.2% | 2.0% | 4.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsHD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 62 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $408, implying +29.5% from the current price of $315. The bear case scenario is $291 and the bull case is $481.
02What is the HD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HD is $408 based on 62 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $454 (+44.0% from today), and the low-end target is $320 (+1.5%). The base case model target is $350.
03Is The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) stock overvalued in 2026?
HD trades at 21.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HD in 2026 are: (1) Housing Market Sensitivity — Home Depot’s revenue is tightly linked to the health of the housing market. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — The retailer’s complex supply chain is vulnerable to natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, global health crises, trade disputes, and logistical challenges. (3) Intense Competition — Home Depot competes with Lowe’s, Menards, Amazon, and Walmart. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Home Depot, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HD will report consensus revenue of $170.7B (+3.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.94 (+5.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $176.6B in revenue.
06When does The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) report its next earnings?
The Home Depot, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-19. Consensus expects EPS of $3.42 and revenue of $41.6B. Over recent quarters, HD has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does The Home Depot, Inc. generate?
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) generated $12.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.7%. HD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).