Upside case
Bull case
$312+38.6%
LOW would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
31 bullish · 1 bearish · 51 covering LOW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$288
+28.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$148 – $312
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $126.1B
LOW price targets
Three scenarios for where LOW stock could go
Current
~$225
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $225
Bear
$148
Base
$248
Bull
$312
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$248+10.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing LOW — at roughly 20x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$148-34.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push LOW down roughly 34% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lowe's Companies, Inc.
LOW · NYSEConsumer CyclicalHome ImprovementJanuary year-end
Lowe's is a major home improvement retailer that sells products for construction, maintenance, repair, remodeling, and decorating through its physical stores and online channels. It generates revenue primarily from retail sales of national brand-name merchandise and private label products — with professional customers representing a growing segment — along with installation services and extended protection plans. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive store network, strong brand recognition, and scale advantages in procurement and distribution.
Market Cap
$126.1B
Revenue TTM
$86.3B
Net Income TTM
$6.7B
Net Margin
7.7%
LOW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.92/$2.88
Revenue
$20.9B/$20.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$4.33/$4.24
Revenue
$24.0B/$23.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.06/$2.97
Revenue
$20.8B/$20.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.98/$1.94
Revenue
$20.6B/$20.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.92/$2.88 | +1.4% | $20.9B/$20.9B | -0.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.33/$4.24 | +2.1% | $24.0B/$23.9B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.06/$2.97 | +3.0% | $20.8B/$20.8B | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.98/$1.94 | +2.1% | $20.6B/$20.3B | +1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$90.9B
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$91.7B
+0.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.45
+4.8% YoY
FY2
$13.06
+4.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.7B
FCF Margin: 8.9%
Next Earnings
May 20, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.96
Expected Revenue
$22.9B
LOW beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LOW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $83.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Decor
36.9%
-3.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
-3.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Home Decor is the largest disclosed segment at 36.9% of FY 2024 revenue, down 3.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, down 3.1% YoY.
LOW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $285 — implies +22.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
22.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LOW
19.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
24% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
LOW
19.0x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
In line with benchmark
vs LOW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.0x
vs
5Y Average
20.0x
5% discount
Forward PE
17.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-6%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+18%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-24%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
-1%
5Y Avg
20.0x
-5%
PEG Ratio
2.14x
S&P 500
1.72x
+25%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+135%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-28%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
-3%
5Y Avg
12.9x
-15%
Price/FCF
16.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
-22%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+13%
5Y Avg
19.7x
-16%
Price/Sales
1.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-53%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+104%
5Y Avg
1.6x
-9%
Dividend Yield
2.09%
S&P 500
1.87%
+12%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
-6%
5Y Avg
1.71%
+22%
| Metric | LOW | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg LOW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.9x | 19.1x | 15.1x+18% | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.0x | 25.1x-24% | 19.3x | 20.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.14x | 1.72x+25% | 0.91x+135% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9x | 15.2x-28% | 11.3x | 12.9x-15% |
| Price/FCF | 16.5x | 21.1x-22% | 14.6x+13% | 19.7x-16% |
| Price/Sales | 1.5x | 3.1x-53% | 0.7x+104% | 1.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.09% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 1.71% |
LOW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLOW Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LOW generates $7.7B in free cash flow at a 8.9% margin — 76.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$86.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.88
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
76.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$982M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.8× FCF
~0.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.3%
Dividend
2.1%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$211M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
39.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
560M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLOW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Low Liquidity
Penny stocks typically trade under $5 per share and often have very low daily volumes. This limited liquidity can make it difficult or impossible to buy or sell shares at desired prices, potentially forcing investors to accept unfavorable prices or hold positions indefinitely.
High Risk
Price Volatility
Because of low trading activity and speculative nature, these securities can experience sharp price swings in short periods. Large fluctuations can occur without any fundamental change, exposing investors to sudden losses or gains that are hard to predict.
High Risk
Fraud & Manipulation
Low‑priced securities are prime targets for pump‑and‑dump schemes, where promoters inflate prices with misleading statements before selling. Investors may be lured into buying at artificially high levels, only to see the price collapse once the scheme ends.
Medium
Lack of Public Information
Many issuers of low‑priced stocks are not required to file regular SEC reports, limiting transparency. The scarcity of reliable data increases the risk of misinformed decisions and makes it harder to assess a company’s true financial health.
Medium
Margin Trading Risks
Purchasing these securities on margin amplifies exposure, as losses can exceed the initial investment. Investors who use leverage face the danger of margin calls and forced liquidations at unfavorable prices.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LOW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strategic Acquisitions in Professional Market
Lowe’s has acquired Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group to strengthen its foothold in the professional contractor segment. These moves are designed to capture high‑volume builders and reduce reliance on the cyclical DIY consumer, with projected revenue additions in the coming years.
Digital Omnichannel Expansion
The company is rolling out new omnichannel sales platforms and mobile apps, boosting its digital channels and services. This focus on digital tools is expected to improve operational efficiency and enhance customer engagement across its retail footprint.
Strong Financial Health & Dividend Growth
Lowe’s holds an investment‑grade BBB+ rating, robust cash flow, and a consistent history of dividend growth, with a 10‑year dividend CAGR of 16%. Its dividend payout ratio is considered healthy and sustainable, supporting shareholder returns.
Operational Efficiency & Margin Expansion
Lowe’s is driving operational productivity through AI and supply‑chain optimization, which is anticipated to lead to margin expansion. The company has demonstrated strong net income margins, positioning it for continued profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LOW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$225.24
52W Range Position
18%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$210.33
+7.1% from the low
52-Week High
$293.06
-23.1% from the high
1 Month
-4.23%
3 Month
-18.06%
YTD
-8.8%
1 Year
+0.0%
3Y CAGR
+3.1%
5Y CAGR
+2.4%
10Y CAGR
+11.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LOW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.9x
vs 16.5x median
+8% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.4%
vs +3.6% median
+47% above peer median
Net Margin
7.7%
vs 6.9% median
+12% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LOW LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. | $126.1B | 17.9x | +5.4% | 7.7% | Buy | +28.0% |
HD HD The Home Depot, Inc. | $313.3B | 21.0x | +3.6% | 8.6% | Buy | +29.5% |
TSC TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $17.2B | 15.3x | +4.0% | 6.9% | Buy | +72.3% |
FND FND Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | $5.2B | 24.4x | +5.5% | 4.3% | Hold | +30.8% |
BLD BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $8.2B | 13.2x | -3.3% | 2.0% | Buy | +47.4% |
MAS MAS Masco Corporation | $14.2B | 16.5x | -1.1% | 10.9% | Buy | +17.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LOW Dividend and Capital Return
LOW returns 2.3% total yield, led by a 2.09% dividend, raised 26 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
2.09%
Payout Ratio
39.6%
How LOW Splits Its Return
Div 2.09%
Dividend 2.09%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
26Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.3%
5Y Div CAGR
15.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$211M
Estimated Shares Retired
936.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
560M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.70 | +4.4% | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $4.50 | +4.7% | 2.7% | 4.5% |
| 2023 | $4.30 | +16.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% |
| 2022 | $3.70 | +32.1% | 10.7% | 12.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsLOW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $288, implying +28.0% from the current price of $225. The bear case scenario is $148 and the bull case is $312.
02What is the LOW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LOW is $288 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $325 (+44.3% from today), and the low-end target is $230 (+2.1%). The base case model target is $248.
03Is Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) stock overvalued in 2026?
LOW trades at 17.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LOW in 2026 are: (1) Low Liquidity — Penny stocks typically trade under $5 per share and often have very low daily volumes. (2) Price Volatility — Because of low trading activity and speculative nature, these securities can experience sharp price swings in short periods. (3) Fraud & Manipulation — Low‑priced securities are prime targets for pump‑and‑dump schemes, where promoters inflate prices with misleading statements before selling. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lowe's Companies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LOW will report consensus revenue of $90.9B (+5.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.45 (+4.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $91.7B in revenue.
06When does Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) report its next earnings?
Lowe's Companies, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-20. Consensus expects EPS of $2.96 and revenue of $22.9B. Over recent quarters, LOW has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Lowe's Companies, Inc. generate?
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) generated $7.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.9%. LOW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($211M TTM).