Upside case
Bull case
$336+51.4%
LOW would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
31 bullish · 1 bearish · 51 covering LOW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$279
+25.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$161 – $336
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $124.5B
LOW price targets
Three scenarios for where LOW stock could go
Current
~$222
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $222
Bear
$161
Base
$255
Bull
$336
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$255+14.9%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$161-27.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push LOW down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lowe's Companies, Inc.
LOW · NYSEConsumer CyclicalHome ImprovementJanuary year-end
Lowe's is a major home improvement retailer that sells products for construction, maintenance, repair, remodeling, and decorating through its physical stores and online channels. It generates revenue primarily from retail sales of national brand-name merchandise and private label products — with professional customers representing a growing segment — along with installation services and extended protection plans. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive store network, strong brand recognition, and scale advantages in procurement and distribution.
Market Cap
$124.5B
Revenue TTM
$88.4B
Net Income TTM
$6.6B
Net Margin
7.5%
LOW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.33/$4.24
Revenue
$24.0B/$23.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.06/$2.97
Revenue
$20.8B/$20.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.98/$1.94
Revenue
$20.6B/$20.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.03/$2.97
Revenue
$23.1B/$23.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.33/$4.24 | +2.1% | $24.0B/$23.9B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.06/$2.97 | +3.0% | $20.8B/$20.8B | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.98/$1.94 | +2.1% | $20.6B/$20.3B | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.03/$2.97 | +2.0% | $23.1B/$23.0B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$92.4B
+4.5% YoY
FY2
$96.3B
+4.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.66
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$13.69
+8.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.6B
FCF Margin: 8.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LOW beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LOW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $84.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Decor
37.5%
+2.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
99.9%
+3.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Home Decor is the largest disclosed segment at 37.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 99.9%, up 3.0% YoY.
LOW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $299 — implies +34.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
34.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LOW
18.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
23% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
LOW
18.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
11% discount
vs LOW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.7x
vs
5Y Average
20.0x
6% discount
Forward PE
17.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-5%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-23%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-11%
5Y Avg
20.0x
-6%
PEG Ratio
2.11x
S&P 500
1.66x
+27%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+129%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-9%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+14%
5Y Avg
13.6x
+3%
Price/FCF
16.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
-21%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+5%
5Y Avg
19.7x
-17%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-53%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+107%
5Y Avg
1.6x
-10%
Dividend Yield
2.12%
S&P 500
1.91%
+11%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-2%
5Y Avg
1.71%
+24%
| Metric | LOW | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg LOW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.8x | 18.8x | 16.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.7x | 24.4x-23% | 21.2x-11% | 20.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.11x | 1.66x+27% | 0.92x+129% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.9x | 15.2x | 12.2x+14% | 13.6x |
| Price/FCF | 16.3x | 20.7x-21% | 15.6x | 19.7x-17% |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-53% | 0.7x+107% | 1.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.12% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.71% |
LOW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLOW Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
LOW generates $7.6B in free cash flow at a 8.6% margin — 26.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$88.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.86
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
26.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$982M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$43.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.7× FCF
~5.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.3%
Dividend
2.1%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$211M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
39.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
561M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLOW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Housing market downturn
Challenging housing market conditions are negatively impacting Lowe's performance, with softening demand for home improvement products.
High Risk
Margin pressure
Inflation is pressuring Lowe's margins, leading to reduced profitability despite strong sales growth.
Medium
Market shock sensitivity
Lowe's has historically underperformed the S&P 500 during systemic shocks, with an average drawdown of -18% compared to -16% for the broader market.
Medium
Earnings outlook cut
Investor sentiment turned cautious after Lowe's reduced its GAAP EPS outlook, despite beating Q1 estimates.
Lower
Limited upside potential
Analysts see limited upside for Lowe's stock due to macroeconomic headwinds in the housing sector.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LOW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Pro customer focus
Lowe's offers specialized services and resources for professional customers, including Pro offers, credit, and business tools.
Exclusive product offerings
Lowe's is the exclusive retailer for unique products like the Lowe's Katrina Cottage, providing easy construction and affordability.
Strong profitability and cash flow
The company demonstrates robust profitability and cash flow generation, supporting its financial stability.
Diverse product and service portfolio
Lowe's provides a wide range of products, from appliances to home décor, along with installation services, enhancing customer convenience.
Digital and in-store integration
Features like virtual mylowes cards and digital wallet integration streamline shopping and list management for customers.
Institutional ownership confidence
Top institutional holders like Vanguard (10.2%) signal strong confidence in Lowe's long-term prospects.
Resilience in extreme conditions
Modeling shows Lowe's ability to perform under crisis-level pressure, highlighting operational resilience.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LOW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$222.10
52W Range Position
21%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$203.45
+9.2% from the low
52-Week High
$293.06
-24.2% from the high
1 Month
+1.87%
3 Month
-3.88%
YTD
-10.0%
1 Year
+5.3%
3Y CAGR
+1.0%
5Y CAGR
+3.5%
10Y CAGR
+10.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LOW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.8x
vs 18.8x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.5%
vs +4.2% median
+7% above peer median
Net Margin
7.5%
vs 6.9% median
+9% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LOW LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. | $124.5B | 17.8x | +4.5% | 7.5% | Buy | +25.7% |
HD HD The Home Depot, Inc. | $333.0B | 22.4x | +4.2% | 8.4% | Buy | +11.9% |
TSC TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $15.9B | 14.3x | +5.4% | 6.9% | Buy | +75.3% |
FND FND Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. | $5.7B | 27.7x | +8.0% | 4.3% | Hold | +19.1% |
BLD BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $8.9B | 18.8x | +0.2% | 2.0% | Buy | +32.0% |
MAS MAS Masco Corporation | $15.0B | 17.4x | +0.5% | 10.9% | Buy | +11.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LOW Dividend and Capital Return
LOW returns 2.3% total yield, led by a 2.12% dividend, raised 41 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
2.12%
Payout Ratio
39.6%
How LOW Splits Its Return
Div 2.12%
Dividend 2.12%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
41Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.3%
5Y Div CAGR
15.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$211M
Estimated Shares Retired
950.0K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
561M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.65 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.70 | +4.4% | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $4.50 | +4.7% | 2.7% | 4.5% |
| 2023 | $4.30 | +16.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% |
| 2022 | $3.70 | +32.1% | 10.7% | 12.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsLOW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $279, implying +25.7% from the current price of $222. The bear case scenario is $161 and the bull case is $336.
02What is the LOW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LOW is $279 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $325 (+46.3% from today), and the low-end target is $232 (+4.5%). The base case model target is $255.
03Is Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) stock overvalued in 2026?
LOW trades at 17.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LOW in 2026 are: (1) Housing market downturn — Challenging housing market conditions are negatively impacting Lowe's performance, with softening demand for home improvement products. (2) Margin pressure — Inflation is pressuring Lowe's margins, leading to reduced profitability despite strong sales growth. (3) Market shock sensitivity — Lowe's has historically underperformed the S&P 500 during systemic shocks, with an average drawdown of -18% compared to -16% for the broader market. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lowe's Companies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LOW will report consensus revenue of $92.4B (+4.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.66 (+6.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $96.3B in revenue.
06When does Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LOW is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Lowe's Companies, Inc. generate?
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) generated $7.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.6%. LOW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($211M TTM).