Upside case
Bull case
$316+143.1%
RMBS would need investors to value it at roughly 107x earnings — about 63x more generous than today's 44x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Rambus Inc. (RMBS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
14
analysts
11 bullish · 0 bearish · 14 covering RMBS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$136
+4.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $316
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
44.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.1B
RMBS price targets
Three scenarios for where RMBS stock could go
Current
~$130
Confidence
36 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $130
Base
$225
Bull
$316
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$225+72.7%
At 76x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rambus Inc.
RMBS · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Rambus is a semiconductor technology company that designs and licenses memory interface chips and security IP solutions. It generates revenue through semiconductor product sales — primarily DDR memory interface chips — and licensing its extensive patent portfolio covering memory architecture and high-speed interfaces. The company's key advantage is its foundational memory technology patents, which create a licensing moat in the semiconductor industry.
Market Cap
$14.1B
Revenue TTM
$721M
Net Income TTM
$230M
Net Margin
31.9%
RMBS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.60/$0.61
Revenue
$172M/$176M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.63/$0.63
Revenue
$179M/$176M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.68/$0.68
Revenue
$190M/$188M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.63/$0.61
Revenue
$180M/$180M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.60/$0.61 | -1.6% | $172M/$176M | -2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.63/$0.63 | +0.0% | $179M/$176M | +1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.68/$0.68 | +0.0% | $190M/$188M | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.63/$0.61 | +3.3% | $180M/$180M | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$876M
+21.5% YoY
FY2
$1.1B
+22.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.83
+34.8% YoY
FY2
$3.64
+29.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$335M
FCF Margin: 46.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
RMBS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
RMBS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $708M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product Revenue
49.1%
+40.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF
46.5%
+66.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 49.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 40.9% YoY.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF is the largest reported region at 46.5%, up 66.7% YoY.
RMBS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $120 — implies +7.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
7.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RMBS
61.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+144% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
RMBS
61.6x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+124% premium
vs RMBS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
61.6x
vs
5Y Average
70.5x
13% discount
Forward PE
44.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+131%
Technology
21.7x
+103%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
61.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+144%
Technology
27.5x
+124%
5Y Avg
70.5x
-13%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
47.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+214%
Technology
17.4x
+175%
5Y Avg
37.9x
+26%
Price/FCF
42.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+98%
Technology
19.8x
+113%
5Y Avg
27.8x
+52%
Price/Sales
19.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+535%
Technology
2.4x
+723%
5Y Avg
12.0x
+66%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | RMBS | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg RMBS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 44.0x | 19.1x+131% | 21.7x+103% | — |
| Trailing PE | 61.6x | 25.2x+144% | 27.5x+124% | 70.5x-13% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.9x | 15.3x+214% | 17.4x+175% | 37.9x+26% |
| Price/FCF | 42.2x | 21.3x+98% | 19.8x+113% | 27.8x+52% |
| Price/Sales | 19.9x | 3.1x+535% | 2.4x+723% | 12.0x+66% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
RMBS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRMBS Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
RMBS generates $335M in free cash flow at a 46.5% margin — 17.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$721M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+19.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
77.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
35.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
31.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$335M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
46.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$183M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$139M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$7M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
108M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRMBS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility
Rambus has historically experienced significant drawdowns during market crises, with an average decline of -29% across 15 major systemic shocks, compared to the S&P 500's -16%. Notably, during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, RMBS saw a staggering -76% drawdown.
High Risk
Legal and Regulatory Scrutiny
Rambus is currently under investigation by the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division, responding to a subpoena from a U.S. federal grand jury. This ongoing legal scrutiny could result in prolonged challenges, operational disruptions, financial penalties, and reputational damage.
Medium
Supply Chain Issues
Increasing DRAM shortages pose a significant risk to Rambus, potentially impacting growth. While there is positive acceleration in x86 demand driven by AI, severe memory shortages could hinder the company's performance without the benefit of higher pricing.
Medium
Cash Flow and Earnings
Despite reporting strong profitability, Rambus faces concerns regarding cash-flow weakness in 2025, with projections indicating a near-total collapse in free cash flow despite strong accounting profits. This raises persistent cash-conversion concerns.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Rambus's P/E ratio is significantly higher than industry averages, with one analysis showing a P/E of 54.71 compared to the industry median of 37.55. This valuation gap presents a risk if market sentiment or growth expectations cool.
Lower
Insider Selling
In the past three months, insiders have sold a significant amount of shares without any reported insider buying. This trend may indicate a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects amidst ongoing legal challenges.
Lower
Revenue Misses and Guidance Uncertainty
Recent earnings reports have shown revenue misses against analyst expectations, contributing to stock price declines. Additionally, guidance uncertainty due to supply chain issues adds to the risk profile.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RMBS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
AI and Data Center Demand
The increasing need for higher memory bandwidth, efficient data movement, and scalable connectivity in AI inference and agentic workloads directly benefits Rambus. The company's solutions are integral to the entire AI memory stack.
Product Roadmap and Innovation
Rambus has a product roadmap that continues to expand, with recent launches of new server memory chipsets and strong performance in DDR5 and HBM4 solutions. This innovation positions the company to capture significant market share in the evolving tech landscape.
Financial Performance and Growth
Rambus has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 15% year-over-year product revenue increase in Q1 2026 and record revenue and earnings in 2025. Analysts expect earnings to grow significantly in the coming years, with some projecting substantial EPS increases by 2027 and 2028.
Institutional Support
Institutional investors have shown consistent buying interest, suggesting a potential floor for the stock price. This backing from large investors indicates confidence in Rambus's long-term growth prospects.
Reinvestment for Growth
The company's focus on reinvesting profits for growth, rather than paying dividends, aligns with a growth stock strategy. This approach is expected to enhance future performance and shareholder value.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RMBS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$130.04
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$49.29
+163.8% from the low
52-Week High
$161.80
-19.6% from the high
1 Month
+41.01%
3 Month
+21.42%
YTD
+31.0%
1 Year
+159.2%
3Y CAGR
+38.9%
5Y CAGR
+46.9%
10Y CAGR
+27.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RMBS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
44.0x
vs 69.2x median
-36% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+21.5%
vs +6.3% median
+241% above peer median
Net Margin
31.9%
vs -8.3% median
+486% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMB RMBS Rambus Inc. | $14.1B | 44.0x | +21.5% | 31.9% | Buy | +4.3% |
SSN SSNC SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | $16.8B | 10.1x | +6.1% | 12.6% | Buy | +35.5% |
IPG IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation | $4.3B | 62.8x | -0.6% | 2.8% | Buy | +48.8% |
CEV CEVA CEVA, Inc. | $832M | 69.2x | +6.3% | -10.5% | Buy | -15.4% |
SLA SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $7.1B | 80.0x | +16.7% | -8.3% | Buy | -2.3% |
SIT SITM SiTime Corporation | $16.5B | 121.2x | +33.2% | -13.1% | Buy | -30.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RMBS Dividend and Capital Return
RMBS does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$7M
Estimated Shares Retired
54.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
108M
FAQ
7 questionsRMBS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rambus Inc. (RMBS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rambus Inc. (RMBS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $136, implying +4.3% from the current price of $130.
02What is the RMBS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RMBS is $136 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $172 (+32.3% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (-30.8%). The base case model target is $225.
03Is Rambus Inc. (RMBS) stock overvalued in 2026?
RMBS trades at 44.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Rambus Inc. (RMBS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RMBS in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility — Rambus has historically experienced significant drawdowns during market crises, with an average decline of -29% across 15 major systemic shocks, compared to the S&P 500's -16%. (2) Legal and Regulatory Scrutiny — Rambus is currently under investigation by the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division, responding to a subpoena from a U. (3) Supply Chain Issues — Increasing DRAM shortages pose a significant risk to Rambus, potentially impacting growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rambus Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RMBS will report consensus revenue of $876M (+21.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.83 (+34.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.1B in revenue.
06When does Rambus Inc. (RMBS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for RMBS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Rambus Inc. generate?
Rambus Inc. (RMBS) generated $335M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 46.5%. RMBS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($7M TTM).