Upside case
Bull case
$267+33.9%
RSG would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 35 covering RSG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
15
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$240
+20.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$149 – $267
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $61.8B
RSG price targets
Three scenarios for where RSG stock could go
Current
~$200
Confidence
73 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $200
Bear
$149
Base
$233
Bull
$267
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$233+16.6%
At 32x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$149-25.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push RSG down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Republic Services, Inc.
RSG · NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementDecember year-end
Republic Services is a leading non-hazardous solid waste management company that provides collection, recycling, and disposal services across the United States. It generates revenue primarily from collection services (about 70% of revenue) and landfill operations (roughly 20%), with recycling and other services making up the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive network of landfills and transfer stations—which create significant barriers to entry through high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles—and its long-term contracts with municipalities and commercial customers.
Market Cap
$61.8B
Revenue TTM
$16.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
12.9%
RSG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.58/$1.53
Revenue
$4.0B/$4.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.77/$1.77
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.90/$1.83
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.76/$1.62
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.58/$1.53 | +3.3% | $4.0B/$4.0B | -0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.77/$1.77 | +0.0% | $4.2B/$4.3B | -0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.90/$1.83 | +3.8% | $4.2B/$4.2B | -0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.76/$1.62 | +8.6% | $4.1B/$4.2B | -1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.4B
+4.6% YoY
FY2
$18.4B
+5.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.31
+5.7% YoY
FY2
$7.99
+9.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.4B
FCF Margin: 14.5%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.64
Expected Revenue
$4.1B
RSG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RSG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $25.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Collection Service Line
44.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CANADA
100.0%
+3.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Collection Service Line is the largest disclosed segment at 44.7% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CANADA is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 3.3% YoY.
RSG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $226 — implies +9.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
9.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RSG
29.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+16% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
RSG
29.2x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+13% premium
vs RSG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.2x
vs
5Y Average
30.8x
5% discount
Forward PE
27.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+45%
Industrials
20.8x
+33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+16%
Industrials
25.9x
+13%
5Y Avg
30.8x
-5%
PEG Ratio
1.64x
S&P 500
1.75x
-6%
Industrials
1.59x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-22%
Industrials
13.9x
-15%
5Y Avg
14.5x
-18%
Price/FCF
25.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
+20%
Industrials
20.6x
+24%
5Y Avg
27.6x
-7%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+19%
Industrials
1.6x
+134%
5Y Avg
3.7x
+1%
Dividend Yield
1.18%
S&P 500
1.88%
-37%
Industrials
1.24%
-4%
5Y Avg
1.22%
-3%
| Metric | RSG | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg RSG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.6x | 19.1x+45% | 20.8x+33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.2x | 25.2x+16% | 25.9x+13% | 30.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.64x | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9x | 15.3x-22% | 13.9x-15% | 14.5x-18% |
| Price/FCF | 25.7x | 21.3x+20% | 20.6x+24% | 27.6x |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+19% | 1.6x+134% | 3.7x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.18% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.22% |
RSG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRSG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RSG generates $2.4B in free cash flow at a 14.5% margin — 13.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.91
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$76M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$520M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$870M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.37
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
312M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRSG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Liquidity Constraints (Current Ratio <1)
Republic Services reported a current ratio of 0.58 at the end of 2024 and 0.64 at the end of 2025, well below the generally accepted threshold of 1.0. This short‑term liquidity shortfall could limit the company's ability to meet obligations, increase borrowing costs, or force asset sales.
Medium
Recycling Commodity Price Volatility
The recycling segment’s profitability is tied to commodity prices, which fell more than 25% between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025. A sustained decline could turn recycling operations into a loss‑leader and depress overall earnings.
Medium
Acquisition Overpayment Risk
Republic Services pursues growth through acquisitions, exposing it to the risk of paying premiums that strain cash flow, raise debt levels, and dilute existing shareholders. Overpaying could impair balance‑sheet strength and earnings per share.
Medium
Technology & Cybersecurity Exposure
Increasing reliance on AI and digital platforms raises the risk of system failures or a significant cyber‑security breach. Such events could disrupt operations, damage customer relationships, and generate legal liabilities.
Medium
Rising Operational Costs & Inflation
Operating expenses rose from $8.2 million in 2022 to $8.9 million in 2023 and are projected to increase 4.6% YoY in 2024, driven by inflation, higher labor wages, and material costs. These cost pressures may erode profit margins if not offset by pricing power.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RSG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Performance & Free Cash Flow
Republic Services has consistently posted strong AEBITDA margins and generated significant free cash flow. Revenue, net income, and operating income have all risen year-over-year, underscoring its ability to grow earnings even in competitive markets.
Strategic Expansion in Recycling & Renewable Energy
The company is investing in polymer centers for advanced plastics recycling and partnering on renewable natural gas projects. These initiatives position Republic Services to capture growth in the environmental solutions sector.
Dividend Sustainability & 23-Year Growth
Republic Services has increased its dividend for 23 consecutive years and maintains a low dividend cash payout ratio, indicating a sustainable and growing dividend stream.
Market Leadership & Extensive Infrastructure
As the second-largest waste‑management company by revenue, Republic Services owns a vast network of landfills, transfer stations, and recycling centers, giving it a strong competitive moat.
Consistent Revenue Growth in Competitive Markets
The company has demonstrated year-over-year revenue growth even amid market competition, reflecting resilient demand for its waste‑management services.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RSG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$199.69
52W Range Position
0%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$199.59
+0.1% from the low
52-Week High
$258.75
-22.8% from the high
1 Month
-9.59%
3 Month
-9.21%
YTD
-5.0%
1 Year
-20.4%
3Y CAGR
+11.0%
5Y CAGR
+12.5%
10Y CAGR
+15.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RSG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.6x
vs 31.0x median
-11% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.6%
vs +5.8% median
-21% below peer median
Net Margin
12.9%
vs 6.5% median
+98% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RSG RSG Republic Services, Inc. | $61.8B | 27.6x | +4.6% | 12.9% | Buy | +20.1% |
WM WM Waste Management, Inc. | $88.9B | 26.9x | +7.3% | 11.0% | Buy | +14.7% |
CWS CWST Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | $5.3B | 63.3x | +16.9% | 0.4% | Buy | +40.7% |
WCN WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | $39.1B | 27.9x | +5.8% | 11.0% | Buy | +33.0% |
CLH CLH Clean Harbors, Inc. | $15.4B | 34.1x | +5.4% | 6.5% | Buy | +3.9% |
NVR NVRI Enviri Corporation | $1.6B | — | -2.0% | -7.6% | Buy | +29.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RSG Dividend and Capital Return
RSG returns 2.6% annually — 1.18% through dividends and 1.4% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
1.18%
Payout Ratio
34.5%
How RSG Splits Its Return
Div 1.18%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 1.18%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.37
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.4%
5Y Div CAGR
7.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$870M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
312M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.36 | +43.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | $1.65 | -19.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | $2.06 | +7.9% | 0.5% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $1.91 | +7.9% | 0.5% | 1.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsRSG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $240, implying +20.1% from the current price of $200. The bear case scenario is $149 and the bull case is $267.
02What is the RSG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RSG is $240 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $255 (+27.7% from today), and the low-end target is $220 (+10.2%). The base case model target is $233.
03Is Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) stock overvalued in 2026?
RSG trades at 27.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RSG in 2026 are: (1) Liquidity Constraints (Current Ratio <1) — Republic Services reported a current ratio of 0. (2) Recycling Commodity Price Volatility — The recycling segment’s profitability is tied to commodity prices, which fell more than 25% between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025. (3) Acquisition Overpayment Risk — Republic Services pursues growth through acquisitions, exposing it to the risk of paying premiums that strain cash flow, raise debt levels, and dilute existing shareholders. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Republic Services, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RSG will report consensus revenue of $17.4B (+4.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.31 (+5.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.4B in revenue.
06When does Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) report its next earnings?
Republic Services, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.64 and revenue of $4.1B. Over recent quarters, RSG has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Republic Services, Inc. generate?
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) generated $2.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.5%. RSG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($870M TTM).