Upside case
Bull case
$317+54.5%
RSG would need investors to value it at roughly 43x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
19 bullish · 0 bearish · 35 covering RSG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
16
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$239
+16.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$151 – $317
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
28.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $63.1B
RSG price targets
Three scenarios for where RSG stock could go
Current
~$205
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $205
Bear
$151
Base
$240
Bull
$317
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$240+17.3%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$151-26.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push RSG down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Republic Services, Inc.
RSG · NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementDecember year-end
Republic Services is a leading non-hazardous solid waste management company that provides collection, recycling, and disposal services across the United States. It generates revenue primarily from collection services (about 70% of revenue) and landfill operations (roughly 20%), with recycling and other services making up the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive network of landfills and transfer stations—which create significant barriers to entry through high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles—and its long-term contracts with municipalities and commercial customers.
Market Cap
$63.1B
Revenue TTM
$16.7B
Net Income TTM
$2.2B
Net Margin
13.0%
RSG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.77/$1.77
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.90/$1.83
Revenue
$4.2B/$4.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.76/$1.62
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.70/$1.64
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.77/$1.77 | +0.0% | $4.2B/$4.3B | -0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.90/$1.83 | +3.8% | $4.2B/$4.2B | -0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.76/$1.62 | +8.6% | $4.1B/$4.2B | -1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.70/$1.64 | +3.7% | $4.1B/$4.1B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.5B
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$18.3B
+4.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.33
+4.5% YoY
FY2
$7.84
+7.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 15.5%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.81
Expected Revenue
$4.4B
RSG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RSG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $25.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Collection Service Line
44.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CANADA
100.0%
+3.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Collection Service Line is the largest disclosed segment at 44.7% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CANADA is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 3.3% YoY.
RSG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $262 — implies +27.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
27.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RSG
29.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+22% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
RSG
29.9x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+17% premium
vs RSG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.9x
vs
5Y Average
30.8x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
28.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+50%
Industrials
21.2x
+33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+22%
Industrials
25.6x
+17%
5Y Avg
30.8x
-3%
PEG Ratio
1.68x
S&P 500
1.66x
+1%
Industrials
1.65x
+2%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-20%
Industrials
13.9x
-13%
5Y Avg
14.5x
-16%
Price/FCF
26.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+26%
Industrials
20.0x
+31%
5Y Avg
27.6x
-5%
Price/Sales
3.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+23%
Industrials
1.6x
+143%
5Y Avg
3.7x
+3%
Dividend Yield
1.15%
S&P 500
1.91%
-40%
Industrials
1.21%
-5%
5Y Avg
1.22%
-6%
| Metric | RSG | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg RSG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 28.1x | 18.8x+50% | 21.2x+33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.9x | 24.4x+22% | 25.6x+17% | 30.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.68x | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1x | 15.2x-20% | 13.9x-13% | 14.5x-16% |
| Price/FCF | 26.2x | 20.7x+26% | 20.0x+31% | 27.6x |
| Price/Sales | 3.8x | 3.1x+23% | 1.6x+143% | 3.7x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.15% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.22% |
RSG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRSG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RSG generates $2.6B in free cash flow at a 15.5% margin — 13.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.02
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$76M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$520M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$870M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.37
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
308M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRSG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Financial Performance
Mixed Q1 2026 financial results with volume headwinds, despite higher net income and EPS.
High Risk
Market Sentiment
Stock has lost about 5% since 1/31/2026 due to bearish factors.
Medium
Margin Pressures
Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded, but underlying volume challenges pose risks.
Lower
Valuation
DCF model suggests fair value at $228.56, slightly above current market price.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RSG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong financial performance
Republic Services reported year-on-year increases in revenue, net income, and earnings per share, with optimistic 2026 revenue guidance.
Share repurchase program
The company completed a $1.34 billion share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its financial health.
Growth in sustainability initiatives
Republic Services is advancing its sustainability and operational efficiency efforts, positioning itself as a leader in waste management.
Technology and AI advancements
The company highlighted progress in technology and AI during its Q1 2026 results, indicating potential for future efficiency gains.
Institutional investor confidence
Bill Gates's Cascade Investment significantly increased its stake in Republic Services, reflecting strong institutional belief in the company.
Sector leadership
Republic Services has emerged as a leader in the waste management sector, leveraging strategic investments to navigate economic uncertainty.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RSG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$204.94
52W Range Position
16%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$196.41
+4.3% from the low
52-Week High
$251.17
-18.4% from the high
1 Month
-4.47%
3 Month
-7.68%
YTD
-2.5%
1 Year
-17.5%
3Y CAGR
+12.0%
5Y CAGR
+14.0%
10Y CAGR
+15.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RSG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
28.1x
vs 31.0x median
-9% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.0%
vs +6.9% median
-28% below peer median
Net Margin
13.0%
vs 6.5% median
+99% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RSG RSG Republic Services, Inc. | $63.1B | 28.1x | +5.0% | 13.0% | Buy | +16.8% |
WM WM Waste Management, Inc. | $86.6B | 26.2x | +6.9% | 11.0% | Buy | +20.5% |
CWS CWST Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | $5.4B | 64.2x | +10.0% | 0.4% | Buy | +29.1% |
WCN WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | $39.2B | 28.5x | +5.5% | 11.0% | Buy | +33.5% |
CLH CLH Clean Harbors, Inc. | $15.4B | 33.5x | +7.3% | 6.5% | Buy | +5.1% |
NVR NVRI Enviri Corporation | $1.8B | — | +0.6% | -7.5% | Hold | +1.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RSG Dividend and Capital Return
RSG returns 2.5% annually — 1.15% through dividends and 1.4% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
1.15%
Payout Ratio
34.5%
How RSG Splits Its Return
Div 1.15%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 1.15%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.37
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.4%
5Y Div CAGR
7.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$870M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
308M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.88 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.36 | +43.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | $1.65 | -19.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | $2.06 | +7.9% | 0.5% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $1.91 | +7.9% | 0.5% | 1.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsRSG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $239, implying +16.8% from the current price of $205. The bear case scenario is $151 and the bull case is $317.
02What is the RSG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RSG is $239 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $255 (+24.4% from today), and the low-end target is $223 (+8.8%). The base case model target is $240.
03Is Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) stock overvalued in 2026?
RSG trades at 28.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RSG in 2026 are: (1) Market Sentiment — Stock has lost about 5% since 1/31/2026 due to bearish factors. (2) Financial Performance — Mixed Q1 2026 financial results with volume headwinds, despite higher net income and EPS. (3) Margin Pressures — Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded, but underlying volume challenges pose risks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Republic Services, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RSG will report consensus revenue of $17.5B (+5.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.33 (+4.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.3B in revenue.
06When does Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) report its next earnings?
Republic Services, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.81 and revenue of $4.4B. Over recent quarters, RSG has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Republic Services, Inc. generate?
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.5%. RSG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($870M TTM).