Upside case
Bull case
$222+44.4%
WCN would need investors to value it at roughly 40x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
26 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering WCN
Strong Buy
1
Buy
25
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$204
+33.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$72 – $222
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $39.1B
WCN price targets
Three scenarios for where WCN stock could go
Current
~$153
Confidence
73 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $153
Bear
$72
Base
$195
Bull
$222
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$195+27.3%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$72-52.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push WCN down roughly 53% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Waste Connections, Inc.
WCN · NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementDecember year-end
Waste Connections is a North American waste management company that provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services. It generates revenue primarily from collection services (~60% of revenue) and landfill disposal (~25%), with additional income from transfer stations and specialized oil & gas waste services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its exclusive landfill assets—which are difficult to permit and replicate—and its focus on secondary markets with less competition.
Market Cap
$39.1B
Revenue TTM
$9.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
11.0%
WCN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.29/$1.25
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.44/$1.38
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.29/$1.28
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.23/$1.19
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.29/$1.25 | +3.2% | $2.4B/$2.5B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.44/$1.38 | +4.3% | $2.5B/$2.4B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.29/$1.28 | +0.8% | $2.4B/$2.4B | -1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.23/$1.19 | +3.4% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.2B
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$11.0B
+8.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.98
+20.5% YoY
FY2
$5.32
+6.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 23.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WCN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WCN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Solid Waste Collection
71.3%
+6.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Southern
22.5%
+8.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Solid Waste Collection is the largest disclosed segment at 71.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.6% YoY.
Southern is the largest reported region at 22.5%, up 8.2% YoY.
WCN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $181 — implies +12.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
12.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WCN
36.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+46% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
WCN
36.7x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+42% premium
vs WCN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
36.7x
vs
5Y Average
52.6x
30% discount
Forward PE
27.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+46%
Industrials
20.8x
+34%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
36.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
+46%
Industrials
25.9x
+42%
5Y Avg
52.6x
-30%
PEG Ratio
0.92x
S&P 500
1.75x
-47%
Industrials
1.59x
-42%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+7%
Industrials
13.9x
+18%
5Y Avg
20.7x
-21%
Price/FCF
31.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+48%
Industrials
20.6x
+53%
5Y Avg
34.9x
-10%
Price/Sales
4.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+31%
Industrials
1.6x
+159%
5Y Avg
5.0x
-18%
Dividend Yield
0.86%
S&P 500
1.88%
-54%
Industrials
1.24%
-30%
5Y Avg
0.69%
+24%
| Metric | WCN | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg WCN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.9x | 19.1x+46% | 20.8x+34% | — |
| Trailing PE | 36.7x | 25.2x+46% | 25.9x+42% | 52.6x-30% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.92x | 1.75x-47% | 1.59x-42% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.4x | 15.3x | 13.9x+18% | 20.7x-21% |
| Price/FCF | 31.5x | 21.3x+48% | 20.6x+53% | 34.9x |
| Price/Sales | 4.1x | 3.1x+31% | 1.6x+159% | 5.0x-18% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.86% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.69% |
WCN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWCN Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
WCN generates $2.2B in free cash flow at a 23.1% margin — returns 2.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.14
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$46M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.2× FCF
~4.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$514M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.32
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
31.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
255M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWCN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory and Political Hurdles
Operational challenges at Chiquita Canyon landfill led to increased costs and extended timelines, illustrating how regulatory changes can impose compliance costs. Unexpected changes to landfill or recycling regulations could further raise operating expenses and delay projects.
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in recycled material prices (OCC and RIN) and volatile diesel/CNG fuel prices can erode operating margins. Higher fuel and transportation costs directly reduce reported earnings.
High Risk
Liquidity Risk
Waste Connections has experienced a sustained decline in its current ratio, indicating growing reliance on cash flows and external financing. This trend heightens liquidity risk, especially during periods of high acquisition activity or unexpected operational pressures.
High Risk
Operational Costs
Rising fuel and labor costs pose significant risks to operational efficiency and margin sustainability. Unexpected inflation in these areas could squeeze margins unless fully offset by pricing actions.
Medium
Volume Fluctuations
A greater-than-expected decline in construction and industrial units could reduce waste volume in special waste and intermodal segments, impacting revenues and earnings. Macroeconomic uncertainties and strategic decisions to shed low-quality volumes have also contributed to a decline in solid waste volumes.
Medium
Environmental Risks
Unpredictable Elevated Temperature Landfill (ETLF) events present financial and operational risks, especially with ongoing landfill acquisitions. The company faces potential penalties or cleanup liabilities for environmental releases and must comply with evolving environmental protection frameworks.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
Increasing dependence on technology, including AI, makes Waste Connections vulnerable to cyber attacks. Such incidents could disrupt customer service, damage reputation, and lead to litigation, adversely affecting financial results.
Medium
Competitive Pressures
Competitive pricing and potential volume fluctuations due to housing market instability challenge profitability. Competitors may lower prices to gain market share or secure municipal contracts, increasing pressure on margins.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WCN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Financial Performance & Earnings Growth
Waste Connections has consistently exceeded earnings expectations, reflecting effective management and robust financial health. Revenue reached $9.467 billion in 2025, a 6.14% year‑over‑year increase, and analysts project continued profitability improvements and margin expansion for 2026.
Strategic Acquisitions Fuel Revenue
The company’s M&A strategy has added significant top‑line growth: acquisitions contributed $410.9 million in 2023, $529 million in 2024, and $377 million in 2025. With a strong balance sheet and a sizable pipeline, Waste Connections is positioned for continued revenue expansion through acquisitions.
Pricing Power & Margin Expansion
Waste Connections enjoys strong pricing power, a hallmark of its wide economic moat, allowing it to defend profit margins even in challenging economic conditions. The firm has demonstrated year‑over‑year increases in underlying solid waste margins, underscoring its ability to expand profitability.
Dividend & Shareholder Returns
The company offers a solid dividend yield, providing investors with a steady income stream. Waste Connections has a history of rewarding shareholders through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder value.
Undervaluation Relative to Peers
Analyses suggest Waste Connections trades at a discount to its fair value estimate and to comparable peers. This valuation discount is considered unwarranted given the company’s strong fundamentals and growth prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WCN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$153.48
52W Range Position
0%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$153.31
+0.1% from the low
52-Week High
$199.00
-22.9% from the high
1 Month
-7.26%
3 Month
-9.29%
YTD
-11.9%
1 Year
-22.6%
3Y CAGR
+2.6%
5Y CAGR
+4.5%
10Y CAGR
+12.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WCN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.9x
vs 34.1x median
-18% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.8%
vs +6.3% median
-8% below peer median
Net Margin
11.0%
vs 6.5% median
+68% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WCN WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | $39.1B | 27.9x | +5.8% | 11.0% | Buy | +33.0% |
WM WM Waste Management, Inc. | $88.9B | 26.9x | +7.3% | 11.0% | Buy | +14.7% |
RSG RSG Republic Services, Inc. | $61.8B | 27.6x | +4.6% | 12.9% | Buy | +20.1% |
CWS CWST Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | $5.3B | 63.3x | +16.9% | 0.4% | Buy | +40.7% |
CLH CLH Clean Harbors, Inc. | $15.4B | 34.1x | +5.4% | 6.5% | Buy | +3.9% |
CEV CEVA CEVA, Inc. | $832M | 69.2x | +6.3% | -10.5% | Buy | -15.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WCN Dividend and Capital Return
WCN returns capital mainly through $514M/year in buybacks (1.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.84% dividend — combining for 2.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
0.84%
Payout Ratio
31.4%
How WCN Splits Its Return
Div 0.84%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 0.84%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.32
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.1%
5Y Div CAGR
11.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$514M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
255M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.29 | +10.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $1.17 | +11.4% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2023 | $1.05 | +11.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2022 | $0.95 | +11.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsWCN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $204, implying +33.0% from the current price of $153. The bear case scenario is $72 and the bull case is $222.
02What is the WCN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WCN is $204 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $218 (+42.0% from today), and the low-end target is $180 (+17.3%). The base case model target is $195.
03Is Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) stock overvalued in 2026?
WCN trades at 27.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WCN in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory and Political Hurdles — Operational challenges at Chiquita Canyon landfill led to increased costs and extended timelines, illustrating how regulatory changes can impose compliance costs. (2) Commodity Price Volatility — Fluctuations in recycled material prices (OCC and RIN) and volatile diesel/CNG fuel prices can erode operating margins. (3) Liquidity Risk — Waste Connections has experienced a sustained decline in its current ratio, indicating growing reliance on cash flows and external financing. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Waste Connections, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WCN will report consensus revenue of $10.2B (+5.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.98 (+20.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.0B in revenue.
06When does Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WCN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Waste Connections, Inc. generate?
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.1%. WCN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($514M TTM).