Upside case
Bull case
$256+66.0%
WCN would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 29x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
26 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering WCN
Strong Buy
1
Buy
25
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$206
+33.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$122 – $256
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
28.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $39.2B
WCN price targets
Three scenarios for where WCN stock could go
Current
~$154
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $154
Bear
$122
Base
$194
Bull
$256
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$194+26.0%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$122-20.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push WCN down roughly 21% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Waste Connections, Inc.
WCN · NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementDecember year-end
Waste Connections is a North American waste management company that provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services. It generates revenue primarily from collection services (~60% of revenue) and landfill disposal (~25%), with additional income from transfer stations and specialized oil & gas waste services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its exclusive landfill assets—which are difficult to permit and replicate—and its focus on secondary markets with less competition.
Market Cap
$39.2B
Revenue TTM
$9.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
11.0%
WCN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.29/$1.25
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.44/$1.38
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.29/$1.28
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.23/$1.19
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.29/$1.25 | +3.2% | $2.4B/$2.5B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.44/$1.38 | +4.3% | $2.5B/$2.4B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.29/$1.28 | +0.8% | $2.4B/$2.4B | -1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.23/$1.19 | +3.4% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.2B
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$10.6B
+4.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.83
+16.7% YoY
FY2
$5.19
+7.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 23.1%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.36
Expected Revenue
$2.5B
WCN beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WCN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Solid Waste Collection
71.3%
+6.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Southern
22.5%
+8.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Solid Waste Collection is the largest disclosed segment at 71.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.6% YoY.
Southern is the largest reported region at 22.5%, up 8.2% YoY.
WCN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $142 — implies -7.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
7.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WCN
36.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+51% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
WCN
36.8x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+44% premium
vs WCN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
36.8x
vs
5Y Average
52.6x
30% discount
Forward PE
28.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+52%
Industrials
21.2x
+35%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
36.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+51%
Industrials
25.6x
+44%
5Y Avg
52.6x
-30%
PEG Ratio
0.92x
S&P 500
1.66x
-44%
Industrials
1.65x
-44%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+8%
Industrials
13.9x
+18%
5Y Avg
20.7x
-21%
Price/FCF
31.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+53%
Industrials
20.0x
+58%
5Y Avg
34.9x
-9%
Price/Sales
4.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+34%
Industrials
1.6x
+164%
5Y Avg
5.0x
-18%
Dividend Yield
0.86%
S&P 500
1.91%
-55%
Industrials
1.21%
-29%
5Y Avg
0.69%
+24%
| Metric | WCN | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg WCN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 28.5x | 18.8x+52% | 21.2x+35% | — |
| Trailing PE | 36.8x | 24.4x+51% | 25.6x+44% | 52.6x-30% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.92x | 1.66x-44% | 1.65x-44% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.4x | 15.2x | 13.9x+18% | 20.7x-21% |
| Price/FCF | 31.6x | 20.7x+53% | 20.0x+58% | 34.9x |
| Price/Sales | 4.1x | 3.1x+34% | 1.6x+164% | 5.0x-18% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.86% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.69% |
WCN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWCN Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
WCN generates $2.2B in free cash flow at a 23.1% margin — returns 2.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.14
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$46M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.2× FCF
~4.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$514M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.32
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
31.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
255M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWCN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
EPS Projection Risk
Projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $4.97, but the confidence score is only 73/100, indicating uncertainty in estimates.
High Risk
Revenue Guidance Risk
2026 revenue guidance ranges between US$9.90b and US$9.95b, with tight margins that may limit upside potential.
Medium
Market Concentration Risk
Operates in exclusive and secondary markets, which may limit growth opportunities compared to broader markets.
Lower
Acquisition Dependency
Growth is driven by accretive acquisitions, which carry integration and execution risks.
Medium
Waste Management Challenges
Faces operational challenges in waste management, as highlighted by issues in Lusaka, which could reflect broader industry risks.
High Risk
Economic Sensitivity
Waste services are cyclical and may underperform in economic downturns due to reduced industrial and commercial activity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WCN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Underserved rural focus
Waste Connections operates in underserved rural regions, leveraging pricing power and service quality to create a defensible niche.
Strong financial metrics
Waste Connections' trailing and forward P/E ratios indicate strong earnings potential, with shares trading at $167.23 as of January 29th.
Bullish investor sentiment
Multiple bullish theses highlight Waste Connections as a compelling investment, with analysts emphasizing its growth prospects.
Waste management efficiency
The company's focus on efficient waste management and recycling contributes to cost reductions and environmental sustainability.
Monopolistic positioning
Waste Connections' strategic positioning in less competitive markets enhances its pricing power and long-term stability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WCN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$153.97
52W Range Position
16%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$146.89
+4.8% from the low
52-Week High
$191.91
-19.8% from the high
1 Month
-3.11%
3 Month
-5.95%
YTD
-11.6%
1 Year
-17.7%
3Y CAGR
+4.0%
5Y CAGR
+5.4%
10Y CAGR
+12.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WCN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
28.5x
vs 33.5x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.5%
vs +6.9% median
-20% below peer median
Net Margin
11.0%
vs 6.5% median
+68% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WCN WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | $39.2B | 28.5x | +5.5% | 11.0% | Buy | +33.5% |
WM WM Waste Management, Inc. | $86.6B | 26.2x | +6.9% | 11.0% | Buy | +20.5% |
RSG RSG Republic Services, Inc. | $63.1B | 28.1x | +5.0% | 13.0% | Buy | +16.8% |
CWS CWST Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | $5.4B | 64.2x | +10.0% | 0.4% | Buy | +29.1% |
CLH CLH Clean Harbors, Inc. | $15.4B | 33.5x | +7.3% | 6.5% | Buy | +5.1% |
CEV CEVA CEVA, Inc. | $1.4B | 94.2x | +3.6% | -10.5% | Buy | -8.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WCN Dividend and Capital Return
WCN returns capital mainly through $514M/year in buybacks (1.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.86% dividend — combining for 2.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
0.86%
Payout Ratio
31.4%
How WCN Splits Its Return
Div 0.86%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 0.86%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.32
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.1%
5Y Div CAGR
11.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$514M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
255M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.29 | +10.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $1.17 | +11.4% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2023 | $1.05 | +11.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2022 | $0.95 | +11.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsWCN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $206, implying +33.5% from the current price of $154. The bear case scenario is $122 and the bull case is $256.
02What is the WCN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WCN is $206 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $218 (+41.6% from today), and the low-end target is $180 (+16.9%). The base case model target is $194.
03Is Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) stock overvalued in 2026?
WCN trades at 28.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WCN in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Guidance Risk — 2026 revenue guidance ranges between US$9. (2) Economic Sensitivity — Waste services are cyclical and may underperform in economic downturns due to reduced industrial and commercial activity. (3) EPS Projection Risk — Projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $4. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Waste Connections, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WCN will report consensus revenue of $10.2B (+5.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.83 (+16.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.6B in revenue.
06When does Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) report its next earnings?
Waste Connections, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $1.36 and revenue of $2.5B. Over recent quarters, WCN has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Waste Connections, Inc. generate?
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.1%. WCN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($514M TTM).