Upside case
Bull case
$320+45.0%
WM would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
19 bullish · 0 bearish · 35 covering WM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
16
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$253
+14.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$193 – $320
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $88.9B
WM price targets
Three scenarios for where WM stock could go
Current
~$221
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $221
Bear
$193
Base
$296
Bull
$320
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$296+34.4%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$193-12.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push WM down roughly 12% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Waste Management, Inc.
WM · NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementDecember year-end
Waste Management is North America's largest comprehensive waste services provider, operating collection, recycling, and disposal infrastructure across residential, commercial, and industrial markets. It generates revenue primarily from collection services (~70% of revenue) and landfill disposal fees (~20%), supplemented by recycling processing and energy generation from landfill gas. The company's competitive moat stems from its vast, irreplaceable network of permitted landfills and transfer stations—a capital-intensive, regulated infrastructure that creates significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$88.9B
Revenue TTM
$25.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.8B
Net Margin
11.0%
WM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.92/$1.89
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.98/$2.01
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.93/$1.95
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.81/$1.75
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.92/$1.89 | +1.6% | $6.4B/$6.4B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.98/$2.01 | -1.5% | $6.4B/$6.5B | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.93/$1.95 | -1.0% | $6.3B/$6.4B | -1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.81/$1.75 | +3.4% | $6.2B/$6.3B | -0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$27.3B
+7.3% YoY
FY2
$29.9B
+9.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.04
+16.3% YoY
FY2
$9.00
+12.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.3B
FCF Margin: 12.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WM beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
WM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $30.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Commercial
21.5%
+21.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
C [A]
100.0%
+13.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Commercial is the largest disclosed segment at 21.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 21.4% YoY.
C [A] is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 13.5% YoY.
WM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $210 — implies -8.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WM
32.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+30% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
WM
32.9x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+27% premium
vs WM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.9x
vs
5Y Average
32.4x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
26.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+41%
Industrials
20.8x
+29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
+30%
Industrials
25.9x
+27%
5Y Avg
32.4x
+2%
PEG Ratio
2.40x
S&P 500
1.75x
+37%
Industrials
1.59x
+51%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-2%
Industrials
13.9x
+8%
5Y Avg
15.3x
-2%
Price/FCF
31.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+48%
Industrials
20.6x
+53%
5Y Avg
34.3x
-8%
Price/Sales
3.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+13%
Industrials
1.6x
+122%
5Y Avg
3.6x
-2%
Dividend Yield
1.50%
S&P 500
1.88%
-20%
Industrials
1.24%
+21%
5Y Avg
1.52%
-1%
| Metric | WM | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg WM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.9x | 19.1x+41% | 20.8x+29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.9x | 25.2x+30% | 25.9x+27% | 32.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.40x | 1.75x+37% | 1.59x+51% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.9x | 15.3x | 13.9x | 15.3x |
| Price/FCF | 31.6x | 21.3x+48% | 20.6x+53% | 34.3x |
| Price/Sales | 3.5x | 3.1x+13% | 1.6x+122% | 3.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.50% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.52% |
WM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
WM generates $3.3B in free cash flow at a 12.9% margin — 10.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.91
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$201M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$22.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.9× FCF
~6.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.5%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
49.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
403M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageWM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in the prices and demand for recyclables such as paper, glass, and metal, as well as energy products like biogas and electricity, can materially affect revenue and cash flows. In 2025 a decline in recyclable commodity prices led to a revenue drop, while a price rise in 2024 boosted earnings.
High Risk
Debt Levels
WM carries a substantial amount of debt, creating a significant financial risk if the company cannot meet obligations through free cash flow or by raising capital. High leverage limits flexibility for growth and can increase borrowing costs.
High Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Persistently higher interest rates raise capital costs, strain cash flow, and complicate debt repayment. Rising rates can erode profitability and increase the cost of future financing.
High Risk
Large Project Execution
The multi‑billion dollar Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) program is complex and must deliver projected returns to justify the capital outlay. Failure to meet performance targets could result in cost overruns and reduced shareholder value.
High Risk
Environmental Liabilities
WM faces potential liabilities from environmental damage, including contamination of air, water, or soil. Such liabilities can lead to costly remediation, regulatory penalties, and reputational harm.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
The company is vulnerable to cyber threats such as hacking, malware, and phishing attacks, which could compromise data integrity and disrupt transactions. A successful breach could result in financial loss and operational downtime.
Medium
Climate Physical Risks
Climate change can trigger severe weather events that disrupt operations, damage infrastructure, and increase operational costs. Physical risks such as flooding or extreme heat can impair waste processing and transportation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Economic Moat & Pricing Power
Waste Management enjoys a nearly unassailable moat due to high barriers for new landfills—permits, regulation, and financing are difficult to obtain. Many contracts include automatic inflation pass‑throughs, protecting margins, and the Stericycle acquisition has added a medical waste disposal stream, diversifying revenue.
Consistent Growth & Strong Margins
The company projects a 6% CAGR in revenue and 11% CAGR in operating income over the next three years, supported by healthy gross and operating margins. Its return on invested capital (ROIC) remains robust, underscoring disciplined profitability.
Free Cash Flow & Shareholder Returns
WM consistently generates strong free cash flow, a significant portion of which is returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. The firm has a long history of dividend increases, making it attractive to income‑focused investors.
Strategic Acquisitions & Operational Efficiency
Beyond Stericycle, WM has a track record of tuck‑in acquisitions that enhance market position and operational efficiency. Investments in technology and automation are expected to drive improved margins and future earnings.
Market Position & Dividend Appeal
WM’s dominant market position and disciplined capital allocation make it a stable, growth‑friendly stock. Its dividend policy and buyback program provide a reliable income stream for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$220.52
52W Range Position
49%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$194.11
+13.6% from the low
52-Week High
$248.13
-11.1% from the high
1 Month
-5.68%
3 Month
-2.76%
YTD
+1.0%
1 Year
-5.8%
3Y CAGR
+9.3%
5Y CAGR
+9.3%
10Y CAGR
+13.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.9x
vs 34.1x median
-21% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.3%
vs +5.8% median
+26% above peer median
Net Margin
11.0%
vs 6.5% median
+68% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WM WM Waste Management, Inc. | $88.9B | 26.9x | +7.3% | 11.0% | Buy | +14.7% |
RSG RSG Republic Services, Inc. | $61.8B | 27.6x | +4.6% | 12.9% | Buy | +20.1% |
CWS CWST Casella Waste Systems, Inc. | $5.3B | 63.3x | +16.9% | 0.4% | Buy | +40.7% |
WCN WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | $39.1B | 27.9x | +5.8% | 11.0% | Buy | +33.0% |
CLH CLH Clean Harbors, Inc. | $15.4B | 34.1x | +5.4% | 6.5% | Buy | +3.9% |
CEC CECO CECO Environmental Corp. | $3.1B | 51.7x | +28.2% | 2.1% | Buy | -0.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WM Dividend and Capital Return
WM returns 1.5% total yield, led by a 1.50% dividend, raised 24 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.50%
Payout Ratio
49.3%
How WM Splits Its Return
Div 1.50%
Dividend 1.50%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
24Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.3%
5Y Div CAGR
8.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
403M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.94 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.30 | +10.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| 2024 | $3.00 | +7.1% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 2023 | $2.80 | +7.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% |
| 2022 | $2.60 | +13.0% | 2.3% | 4.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsWM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Waste Management, Inc. (WM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $253, implying +14.7% from the current price of $221. The bear case scenario is $193 and the bull case is $320.
02What is the WM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WM is $253 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $264 (+19.7% from today), and the low-end target is $238 (+7.9%). The base case model target is $296.
03Is Waste Management, Inc. (WM) stock overvalued in 2026?
WM trades at 26.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Waste Management, Inc. (WM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WM in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Fluctuations in the prices and demand for recyclables such as paper, glass, and metal, as well as energy products like biogas and electricity, can materially affect revenue and cash flows. (2) Debt Levels — WM carries a substantial amount of debt, creating a significant financial risk if the company cannot meet obligations through free cash flow or by raising capital. (3) Interest Rate Risk — Persistently higher interest rates raise capital costs, strain cash flow, and complicate debt repayment. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Waste Management, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WM will report consensus revenue of $27.3B (+7.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.04 (+16.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.9B in revenue.
06When does Waste Management, Inc. (WM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Waste Management, Inc. generate?
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) generated $3.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.9%. WM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).