Upside case
Bull case
$216-0.6%
The bull case prices SBAC at 29x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
28 bullish · 0 bearish · 42 covering SBAC
Strong Buy
1
Buy
27
Hold
14
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$230
+5.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$75 – $216
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
29.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.1B
SBAC price targets
Three scenarios for where SBAC stock could go
Current
~$217
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $217
Bear
$75
Base
$232
Bull
$216
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$232+6.7%
This is close to how the market is already pricing SBAC — at roughly 31x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$75-65.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 19x multiple contraction could push SBAC down roughly 65% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
SBA Communications Corporation
SBAC · NASDAQReal EstateREIT - SpecialtyDecember year-end
SBA Communications is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates wireless communications infrastructure—primarily cell towers—across the Americas and South Africa. It generates revenue almost entirely from leasing antenna space on its towers to wireless carriers under long-term contracts, with site development services contributing a smaller portion. The company's moat stems from its strategic tower locations, high barriers to entry for new tower construction, and the essential nature of its infrastructure to wireless networks.
Market Cap
$23.1B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.0B
Net Margin
35.7%
SBAC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-9.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.09/$3.12
Revenue
$699M/$701M
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.32/$3.04
Revenue
$732M/$726M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.47/$3.89
Revenue
$720M/$726M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.74/$1.78
Revenue
$703M/$696M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.09/$3.12 | -33.0% | $699M/$701M | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.32/$3.04 | +9.2% | $732M/$726M | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.47/$3.89 | -10.8% | $720M/$726M | -0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.74/$1.78 | -2.2% | $703M/$696M | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.9B
+3.0% YoY
FY2
$3.1B
+4.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.49
-1.0% YoY
FY2
$10.46
+10.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 35.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SBAC beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SBAC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Domestic Site Leasing Revenue
66.3%
+0.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Domestic Site Leasing Revenue
72.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Domestic Site Leasing Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 66.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.2% YoY.
Domestic Site Leasing Revenue is the largest reported region at 72.6%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
SBAC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $279 — implies +27.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
27.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SBAC
22.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
12% discount
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
SBAC
22.2x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
8% discount
vs SBAC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.2x
vs
5Y Average
70.5x
69% discount
Forward PE
29.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+53%
Real Estate
26.4x
+11%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-12%
Real Estate
24.1x
-8%
5Y Avg
70.5x
-69%
PEG Ratio
0.19x
S&P 500
1.72x
-89%
Real Estate
1.25x
-85%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+35%
Real Estate
16.7x
+23%
5Y Avg
26.7x
-23%
Price/FCF
21.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+3%
Real Estate
15.4x
+40%
5Y Avg
26.0x
-17%
Price/Sales
8.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+162%
Real Estate
3.0x
+175%
5Y Avg
11.2x
-27%
Dividend Yield
2.05%
S&P 500
1.87%
+10%
Real Estate
4.66%
-56%
5Y Avg
1.43%
+43%
| Metric | SBAC | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg SBAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 29.2x | 19.1x+53% | 26.4x+11% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.2x | 25.1x-12% | 24.1x | 70.5x-69% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.19x | 1.72x-89% | 1.25x-85% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.5x | 15.2x+35% | 16.7x+23% | 26.7x-23% |
| Price/FCF | 21.6x | 21.1x | 15.4x+40% | 26.0x-17% |
| Price/Sales | 8.2x | 3.1x+162% | 3.0x+175% | 11.2x-27% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.05% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 1.43% |
SBAC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSBAC Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
SBAC pays 4.2% total shareholder yield with 47.6% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
63.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
47.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
35.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.59
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
47.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$432M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.9B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
14.6× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.2%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$498M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
45.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
106M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageSBAC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Debt and Financing
SBA Communications carries a significant debt load of approximately $12.6 billion as of Q2 2025. Upcoming refinancing at potentially higher interest rates poses a risk to debt service obligations and net income, raising concerns about financial stability with an Altman Z-score of 0.6.
High Risk
Carrier Consolidation and Churn
SBA's reliance on a concentrated customer base of major mobile carriers exposes it to risks from customer churn and industry consolidation. This can pressure lease negotiations and reduce demand for co-location, significantly impacting revenue.
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital and debt servicing for SBA Communications. This could adversely affect net income and cash flows, leading to potential financial strain.
Medium
Regulatory Delays
Zoning delays, spectrum policy shifts, and license renewals can extend build timelines for SBA Communications. Such delays can hinder operational efficiency and impact revenue growth.
Medium
Technological Displacement
Emerging technologies such as WiFi, DAS, and small cells could serve as substitutes for traditional macro site communications. This technological displacement poses a risk to SBA's existing business model and future growth.
Medium
Execution on Acquisitions
The successful execution of acquisitions and build-to-suit portfolios is critical for SBA's growth strategy. Any failure in this area could hinder expansion efforts and negatively impact financial performance.
Lower
International Operations
SBA's exposure to Latin America introduces foreign currency translation volatility that can affect reported results. Additionally, power reliability and operational expenses in emerging markets may pose challenges.
Lower
Shareholder Rights and Ownership Changes
The issuance of equity securities could trigger future ownership changes, potentially impacting the company's ability to utilize Net Operating Losses (NOLs). This could have long-term implications for shareholder value.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SBAC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Asset Base and Revenue
SBA Communications owns and operates approximately 45,000 wireless towers, with over 17,000 located in the U.S. This extensive portfolio generates billions in recurring leasing revenue and is supported by long-term carrier contracts.
Potential Takeover Interest
Reports of potential acquisition interest from infrastructure funds have significantly boosted SBA's stock price. This M&A speculation indicates strong market interest and could lead to a recalibration of the company's valuation.
Underlying Cash Flow and Hard Asset Value
The demand for wireless data is inelastic, underpinning the intrinsic value of SBA's tower assets. These assets are essential infrastructure that modern society relies on, enhancing the company's long-term growth prospects.
Robust Financial Performance
SBA has demonstrated strong profitability metrics, including impressive EBIT and EBITDA margins. The company has also reported significant year-over-year net income growth, reflecting its solid financial health.
Strategic Adjustments for Growth
SBA has made strategic adjustments that have positively impacted its cash flow and strengthened its balance sheet. These changes provide a solid foundation for future growth and operational efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SBAC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$217.38
52W Range Position
66%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$162.41
+33.8% from the low
52-Week High
$245.16
-11.3% from the high
1 Month
+2.33%
3 Month
+20.43%
YTD
+12.9%
1 Year
-10.2%
3Y CAGR
-3.2%
5Y CAGR
-5.9%
10Y CAGR
+8.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SBAC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
29.2x
vs 35.1x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.0%
vs +3.6% median
-16% below peer median
Net Margin
35.7%
vs 25.1% median
+42% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SBA SBAC SBA Communications Corporation | $23.1B | 29.2x | +3.0% | 35.7% | Buy | +5.9% |
AMT AMT American Tower Corporation | $83.0B | 27.2x | +3.6% | 26.6% | Buy | +21.5% |
CCI CCI Crown Castle Inc. | $38.9B | 43.0x | -18.0% | 25.1% | Buy | +18.3% |
UNI UNIT Uniti Group Inc. | $2.7B | — | +52.5% | 56.8% | Hold | -4.3% |
LUM LUMN Lumen Technologies, Inc. | $9.5B | — | -8.5% | -14.3% | Hold | -23.3% |
CCO CCOI Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. | $905M | — | +4.5% | -17.9% | Hold | +52.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SBAC Dividend and Capital Return
SBAC returns 4.2% annually — 2.05% through dividends and 2.2% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
2.05%
Payout Ratio
45.5%
How SBAC Splits Its Return
Div 2.05%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 2.05%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.1%
5Y Div CAGR
19.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$498M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
106M
At 2.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.44 | +13.3% | 2.4% | 4.7% |
| 2024 | $3.92 | +15.3% | 0.9% | 2.8% |
| 2023 | $3.40 | +19.7% | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $2.84 | +22.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsSBAC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $230, implying +5.9% from the current price of $217. The bear case scenario is $75 and the bull case is $216.
02What is the SBAC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SBAC is $230 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $260 (+19.6% from today), and the low-end target is $205 (-5.7%). The base case model target is $232.
03Is SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) stock overvalued in 2026?
SBAC trades at 29.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SBAC in 2026 are: (1) Debt and Financing — SBA Communications carries a significant debt load of approximately $12. (2) Carrier Consolidation and Churn — SBA's reliance on a concentrated customer base of major mobile carriers exposes it to risks from customer churn and industry consolidation. (3) Interest Rate Sensitivity — Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital and debt servicing for SBA Communications. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is SBA Communications Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SBAC will report consensus revenue of $2.9B (+3.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.49 (-1.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.1B in revenue.
06When does SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SBAC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does SBA Communications Corporation generate?
SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 35.7%. SBAC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($498M TTM).