Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing SJM more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
29
analysts
13 bullish · 2 bearish · 29 covering SJM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
14
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$113
+17.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.3B
SJM price targets
Three scenarios for where SJM stock could go
Current
~$97
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The J. M. Smucker Company
SJM · NYSEConsumer DefensivePackaged FoodsApril year-end
The J. M. Smucker Company is a leading manufacturer of branded packaged foods and beverages, primarily in coffee, pet food, and consumer staples. It generates revenue through three main segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods (~40% of sales), U.S. Retail Coffee (~35%), and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods (~25%) — which includes iconic brands like Jif, Smucker's, and Uncrustables. Its competitive advantage lies in a portfolio of deeply entrenched household brands with strong consumer loyalty and extensive retail distribution networks.
Market Cap
$10.3B
Revenue TTM
$8.9B
Net Income TTM
-$1.3B
Net Margin
-14.1%
SJM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.31/$2.24
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.90/$1.93
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.10/$2.10
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.38/$2.27
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.31/$2.24 | +3.1% | $2.1B/$2.2B | -1.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.90/$1.93 | -1.6% | $2.1B/$2.1B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.10/$2.10 | +0.0% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.38/$2.27 | +4.8% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.2B
+3.6% YoY
FY2
$9.6B
+4.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-3.59
+69.5% YoY
FY2
$-3.51
+2.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$971M
FCF Margin: 10.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SJM beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SJM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
U.S. Retail Coffee
32.2%
+3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
93.1%
+7.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
U.S. Retail Coffee is the largest disclosed segment at 32.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 93.1%, up 7.7% YoY.
SJM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $102 — implies +5.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SJM
-8.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
133% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
SJM
-8.4x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
143% discount
vs SJM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-8.4x
vs
5Y Average
18.8x
145% discount
Forward PE
10.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-44%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
-27%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-8.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-133%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
-143%
5Y Avg
18.8x
-145%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
—
5Y Avg
17.4x
—
Price/FCF
12.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
-41%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
-20%
5Y Avg
17.8x
-29%
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-62%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+40%
5Y Avg
1.7x
-31%
Dividend Yield
4.42%
S&P 500
1.88%
+135%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
+62%
5Y Avg
3.10%
+43%
| Metric | SJM | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg SJM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.7x | 19.1x-44% | 14.6x-27% | — |
| Trailing PE | -8.4x | 25.2x-133% | 19.6x-143% | 18.8x-145% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 11.4x | 17.4x |
| Price/FCF | 12.6x | 21.3x-41% | 15.7x-20% | 17.8x-29% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-62% | 0.8x+40% | 1.7x-31% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.42% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 3.10% |
SJM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSJM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
SJM generates $971M in free cash flow at a 10.9% margin — returns 4.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-8.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-14.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-11.77
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$971M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-3.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-7.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$70M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.9× FCF
~7.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-24.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.5%
Dividend
4.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.28
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
106M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSJM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial Performance Risks
SJM's stock has significantly declined due to continuous underperformance compared to competitors, raising concerns about its financial health. Historical downturns during major market events indicate that even stable stocks can suffer substantial losses, impacting investor sentiment and stock valuation.
High Risk
Strategic Acquisition Risks
The Hostess Brands acquisition has been criticized for potentially overpaying, leading to a bloated brand portfolio that may not complement existing products. This has resulted in impairments and investigations into whether SJM adequately disclosed the risks associated with the acquisition.
Medium
Operational Challenges
SJM's fiscal year 2026 guidance projects an 11% decline in Earnings Per Share (EPS), influenced by increased coffee pricing and reduced profitability in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment. Additionally, a 24% drop in EPS in the second quarter reflects ongoing challenges in managing costs and maintaining sales volume.
Medium
Market Sentiment Volatility
Despite a 'B' Value Score suggesting undervaluation, SJM's 'C' Growth Score and 'F' Momentum Score indicate potential volatility and sentiment-driven trading. Analysts have a consensus rating of 'Buy,' but 47% recommend holding, reflecting uncertainty in the stock's future performance.
Lower
Pet Food Segment Risks
The Pet Foods segment has faced a 13% decline in net sales due to lower volumes and pricing pressures. The focus on pet snacking exposes SJM to cyclical swings and macroeconomic factors, complicating its brand portfolio development.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SJM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Cash Flow Generation
SJM is characterized as a 'cash generating machine' with a solid free cash flow yield that supports dividends, share buybacks, and debt reduction. This financial strength is crucial for maintaining shareholder returns and investing in growth opportunities.
Consistent Dividend Yield
The company offers a reliable dividend with an annualized yield of approximately 4.6%. This consistent return to shareholders is a key attraction for income-focused investors.
Debt Reduction Strategy
SJM plans to significantly reduce its debt, aiming for leverage below 3x by the end of 2027. This proactive approach to managing debt will enhance financial stability and investor confidence.
Portfolio of Strong Brands
SJM owns well-recognized brands in key categories such as coffee, pet food, and spreads, which provide a solid foundation for growth. The strength of these brands positions the company well to capitalize on market opportunities.
Growth in Resilient Segments
Despite challenges in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment, other areas like coffee, frozen handhelds, spreads, and pet food are showing positive performance and profit growth. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with underperforming segments.
Focus on Innovation and Advertising
SJM continues to invest in advertising and innovation, exemplified by new products like Milk-Bone PB Bites. These efforts are aimed at driving growth and adapting to changing consumer preferences.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SJM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$96.83
52W Range Position
28%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$88.25
+9.7% from the low
52-Week High
$119.39
-18.9% from the high
1 Month
+1.69%
3 Month
-11.58%
YTD
+0.2%
1 Year
-14.7%
3Y CAGR
-14.9%
5Y CAGR
-6.8%
10Y CAGR
-2.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SJM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.7x
vs 12.8x median
-16% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.6%
vs +1.4% median
+155% above peer median
Net Margin
-14.1%
vs 4.0% median
-449% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SJM SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $10.3B | 10.7x | +3.6% | -14.1% | Hold | +17.1% |
CAG CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $6.7B | 8.3x | +0.7% | 0.1% | Hold | +24.7% |
CPB CPB Campbell Soup Company | $6.2B | 9.6x | +2.7% | 5.5% | Hold | +23.2% |
MKC MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $12.3B | 15.7x | +5.9% | 11.5% | Hold | +51.0% |
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $11.4B | 14.1x | +1.4% | 4.0% | Hold | +31.6% |
THS THS TreeHouse Foods, Inc. | $1.5B | 12.8x | +0.0% | -7.2% | Hold | -5.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SJM Dividend and Capital Return
SJM returns 4.5% total yield, led by a 4.43% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
4.43%
Payout Ratio
—
How SJM Splits Its Return
Div 4.43%
Dividend 4.43%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.28
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.7%
5Y Div CAGR
4.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3M
Estimated Shares Retired
34.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
106M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.36 | +1.9% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| 2024 | $4.28 | +2.9% | 3.1% | 6.8% |
| 2023 | $4.16 | +3.5% | 2.2% | 4.9% |
| 2022 | $4.02 | +6.3% | 1.8% | 4.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsSJM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $113, implying +17.1% from the current price of $97.
02What is the SJM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SJM is $113 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $125 (+29.1% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (+3.3%).
03Is The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) stock overvalued in 2026?
SJM trades at 10.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SJM in 2026 are: (1) Financial Performance Risks — SJM's stock has significantly declined due to continuous underperformance compared to competitors, raising concerns about its financial health. (2) Strategic Acquisition Risks — The Hostess Brands acquisition has been criticized for potentially overpaying, leading to a bloated brand portfolio that may not complement existing products. (3) Operational Challenges — SJM's fiscal year 2026 guidance projects an 11% decline in Earnings Per Share (EPS), influenced by increased coffee pricing and reduced profitability in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The J. M. Smucker Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SJM will report consensus revenue of $9.2B (+3.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $-3.59 (+69.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.6B in revenue.
06When does The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SJM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The J. M. Smucker Company generate?
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) generated $971M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.9%. SJM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.4% yield) and share repurchases ($3M TTM).