Upside case
Bull case
$31-71.9%
The bull case prices SJM at 3x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
31
analysts
16 bullish · 2 bearish · 31 covering SJM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
13
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$120
+8.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$15 – $31
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.8B
SJM price targets
Three scenarios for where SJM stock could go
Current
~$111
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $111
Bear
$15
Base
$24
Bull
$31
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$24-78.7%
At 3x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$15-86.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push SJM down roughly 87% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The J. M. Smucker Company
SJM · NYSEConsumer DefensivePackaged FoodsApril year-end
The J. M. Smucker Company is a leading manufacturer of branded packaged foods and beverages, primarily in coffee, pet food, and consumer staples. It generates revenue through three main segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods (~40% of sales), U.S. Retail Coffee (~35%), and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods (~25%) — which includes iconic brands like Jif, Smucker's, and Uncrustables. Its competitive advantage lies in a portfolio of deeply entrenched household brands with strong consumer loyalty and extensive retail distribution networks.
Market Cap
$11.8B
Revenue TTM
$9.1B
Net Income TTM
-$139M
Net Margin
-1.5%
SJM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.90/$1.93
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.10/$2.10
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.38/$2.27
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.77/$2.64
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.90/$1.93 | -1.6% | $2.1B/$2.1B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.10/$2.10 | +0.0% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.38/$2.27 | +4.8% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.77/$2.64 | +4.9% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.3B
+3.0% YoY
FY2
$9.5B
+1.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.32
+201.4% YoY
FY2
$1.31
-0.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 12.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SJM beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SJM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $8.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
U.S. Retail Coffee
46.0%
+34.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
96.2%
+3.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
U.S. Retail Coffee is the largest disclosed segment at 46.0% of FY 2026 revenue, up 34.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 96.2%, up 3.9% YoY.
SJM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $81 — implies -26.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
26.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SJM
-85.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
449% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
SJM
-85.3x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
551% discount
vs SJM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-85.3x
vs
5Y Average
19.8x
531% discount
Forward PE
12.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
-35%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
-13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-85.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-449%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
-551%
5Y Avg
19.8x
-531%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
33.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+117%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+198%
5Y Avg
22.4x
+47%
Price/FCF
10.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
-51%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
-33%
5Y Avg
17.3x
-41%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-58%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+48%
5Y Avg
1.6x
-16%
Dividend Yield
3.93%
S&P 500
1.91%
+105%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
+28%
5Y Avg
3.44%
+14%
| Metric | SJM | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg SJM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.3x | 18.8x-35% | 14.2x-13% | — |
| Trailing PE | -85.3x | 24.4x-449% | 18.9x-551% | 19.8x-531% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.0x | 15.2x+117% | 11.1x+198% | 22.4x+47% |
| Price/FCF | 10.2x | 20.7x-51% | 15.3x-33% | 17.3x-41% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-58% | 0.9x+48% | 1.6x-16% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.93% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 3.44% |
SJM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSJM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
SJM generates $1.2B in free cash flow at a 12.8% margin — returns 4.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-1.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.30
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$59M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.1× FCF
~6.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-2.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.0%
Dividend
3.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$6M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.36
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
107M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSJM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Weak financial projections
The company reported worse fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter sales and fiscal 2026 profit projections, leading to a significant stock decline.
High Risk
Integration execution risk
The acquisition of Hostess Brands introduces substantial execution risk and financial strain, with future growth heavily dependent on successful integration.
High Risk
Gross margin pressure
Persistent cost inflation, unfavorable product mix, and soft volumes are creating headwinds for gross margins in fiscal 2026.
Medium
Revenue decline
Revenue is projected to face continued pressure with a year-over-year decline due to challenges in coffee, pet food, and contract manufacturing segments.
Medium
Earnings decline
Adjusted earnings for 2026Q1 are expected to decline by 15.4% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.
Lower
Divestiture impact
Financial results reflect divestitures of certain Sweet Baked Snacks value brands and the Voortman business, which may impact comparability and scale.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SJM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Dividend reinforcement
The company announced a quarterly dividend of US$1.10 per share, demonstrating its commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Sales growth
Recent quarterly results showed higher net sales of US$2,339.4 million, indicating potential revenue momentum.
Fair valuation
With a forward P/E ratio of 10.99, the stock appears attractively priced relative to earnings potential.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses have been published on Substack, highlighting positive sentiment among some investors.
Guidance adjustment
The company slightly narrowed its full-year net sales growth guidance to 3.5%-4.0%, providing more predictable targets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SJM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$110.86
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$88.25
+25.6% from the low
52-Week High
$119.39
-7.1% from the high
1 Month
+6.97%
3 Month
+9.33%
YTD
+14.7%
1 Year
+15.5%
3Y CAGR
-9.9%
5Y CAGR
-3.2%
10Y CAGR
-2.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SJM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.3x
vs 12.8x median
-4% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.0%
vs +2.6% median
+15% above peer median
Net Margin
-1.5%
vs 3.8% median
-140% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SJM SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $11.8B | 12.3x | +3.0% | -1.5% | Buy | +8.5% |
CAG CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $6.3B | 7.8x | +0.4% | 0.1% | Hold | +15.2% |
CPB CPB Campbell Soup Company | $6.3B | 9.7x | +2.7% | 6.1% | Hold | -2.3% |
MKC MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $11.8B | 15.1x | +7.1% | 11.5% | Hold | +47.4% |
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $13.3B | 16.3x | +2.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -2.7% |
THS THS TreeHouse Foods, Inc. | $1.5B | 12.8x | +2.6% | -7.2% | Hold | +26.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SJM Dividend and Capital Return
SJM returns 4.0% total yield, led by a 3.93% dividend, raised 28 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.93%
Payout Ratio
—
How SJM Splits Its Return
Div 3.93%
Dividend 3.93%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.36
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
28Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.7%
5Y Div CAGR
4.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$6M
Estimated Shares Retired
50.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
107M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.20 | — | 0.1% | 4.5% |
| 2025 | $4.36 | +1.9% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| 2024 | $4.28 | +2.9% | 3.1% | 6.8% |
| 2023 | $4.16 | +3.5% | 2.2% | 4.9% |
| 2022 | $4.02 | +6.3% | 1.8% | 4.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsSJM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $120, implying +8.5% from the current price of $111. The bear case scenario is $15 and the bull case is $31.
02What is the SJM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SJM is $120 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $137 (+23.6% from today), and the low-end target is $95 (-14.3%). The base case model target is $24.
03Is The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) stock overvalued in 2026?
SJM trades at 12.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SJM in 2026 are: (1) Weak financial projections — The company reported worse fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter sales and fiscal 2026 profit projections, leading to a significant stock decline. (2) Integration execution risk — The acquisition of Hostess Brands introduces substantial execution risk and financial strain, with future growth heavily dependent on successful integration. (3) Gross margin pressure — Persistent cost inflation, unfavorable product mix, and soft volumes are creating headwinds for gross margins in fiscal 2026. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The J. M. Smucker Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SJM will report consensus revenue of $9.3B (+3.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.32 (+201.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.5B in revenue.
06When does The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SJM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The J. M. Smucker Company generate?
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.8%. SJM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.9% yield) and share repurchases ($6M TTM).