Upside case
Bull case
$78+67.1%
MKC would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
30
analysts
11 bullish · 2 bearish · 30 covering MKC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
17
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$69
+47.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$37 – $78
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.8B
MKC price targets
Three scenarios for where MKC stock could go
Current
~$47
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $47
Bear
$37
Base
$59
Bull
$78
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$59+26.8%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$37-20.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push MKC down roughly 20% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
McCormick & Company, Incorporated
MKC · NYSEConsumer DefensivePackaged FoodsNovember year-end
McCormick & Company is a global leader in flavor, manufacturing and distributing spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products. It generates revenue through two main segments: Consumer (~60% of sales) selling branded products to retail customers, and Flavor Solutions (~40%) providing customized flavor systems to food manufacturers and foodservice operators. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive portfolio of iconic brands—including McCormick, Frank's RedHot, and Old Bay—coupled with deep flavor expertise and global manufacturing scale.
Market Cap
$11.8B
Revenue TTM
$6.8B
Net Income TTM
$789M
Net Margin
11.5%
MKC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.69/$0.65
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.85/$0.83
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.86/$0.88
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.66/$0.59
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.69/$0.65 | +6.2% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85/$0.83 | +2.5% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.86/$0.88 | -1.8% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.66/$0.59 | +11.1% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +4.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.3B
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$7.9B
+7.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.29
+12.2% YoY
FY2
$3.54
+7.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$879M
FCF Margin: 12.8%
Next Earnings
June 25, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.71
Expected Revenue
$1.9B
MKC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MKC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Consumer
57.8%
+2.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
71.2%
+1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Consumer is the largest disclosed segment at 57.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.6% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 71.2%, up 1.4% YoY.
MKC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $67 — implies +44.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
44.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MKC
15.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
35% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
MKC
15.9x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
16% discount
vs MKC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.9x
vs
5Y Average
28.0x
43% discount
Forward PE
15.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-20%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+6%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-35%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
-16%
5Y Avg
28.0x
-43%
PEG Ratio
15.07x
S&P 500
1.66x
+808%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
+685%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-22%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+7%
5Y Avg
21.1x
-44%
Price/FCF
16.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-23%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+4%
5Y Avg
35.3x
-55%
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-44%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+96%
5Y Avg
3.1x
-45%
Dividend Yield
3.85%
S&P 500
1.91%
+101%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
+26%
5Y Avg
2.10%
+84%
| Metric | MKC | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg MKC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.1x | 18.8x-20% | 14.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.9x | 24.4x-35% | 18.9x-16% | 28.0x-43% |
| PEG Ratio | 15.07x | 1.66x+808% | 1.92x+685% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9x | 15.2x-22% | 11.1x | 21.1x-44% |
| Price/FCF | 16.0x | 20.7x-23% | 15.3x | 35.3x-55% |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.1x-44% | 0.9x+96% | 3.1x-45% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.85% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 2.10% |
MKC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMKC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MKC generates $879M in free cash flow at a 12.8% margin — returns 4.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.93
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$879M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$96M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.4× FCF
~4.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
3.8%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$35M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.79
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
61.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
254M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMKC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Cost pressures
McCormick faces higher tariffs and cost pressures, expecting a $50 million tariff impact in 2026.
Medium
Segment-specific softness
The company is navigating segment-specific softness despite resilient demand and strong brands.
Medium
Regulatory risks
McCormick disclosed 41 risk factors in its earnings report, indicating potential regulatory and operational challenges.
Lower
Market competition
As a global leader in flavor, McCormick operates in a competitive market across 150 countries.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MKC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Global flavor leader
McCormick operates in 150 countries with a dominant position in spices and flavor products, supported by a strong retail and customer strategy.
Iconic brand portfolio
The company's well-known brands have leading market share and are kitchen staples, driving consistent demand.
Dividend growth history
McCormick has over 30 years of dividend growth, appealing to income-focused investors.
Valuation compression opportunity
Recent stock depreciation (~13.8%) due to valuation compression may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Diverse product offerings
McCormick's extensive range includes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and premium collections, catering to various consumer needs.
Strong financial metrics
The company maintains solid trailing and forward P/E ratios (25.39 and 24.04, respectively), indicating stable earnings potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MKC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$46.64
52W Range Position
5%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$44.82
+4.1% from the low
52-Week High
$78.16
-40.3% from the high
1 Month
-0.13%
3 Month
-15.29%
YTD
-30.7%
1 Year
-36.3%
3Y CAGR
-20.5%
5Y CAGR
-11.5%
10Y CAGR
-0.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MKC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.1x
vs 12.8x median
+17% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.1%
vs +2.6% median
+172% above peer median
Net Margin
11.5%
vs -1.5% median
+853% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MKC MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $11.8B | 15.1x | +7.1% | 11.5% | Hold | +47.4% |
SJM SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $11.8B | 12.3x | +3.0% | -1.5% | Buy | +8.5% |
CHD CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | $22.7B | 25.5x | +4.3% | 11.8% | Buy | +9.8% |
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $13.3B | 16.3x | +2.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -2.7% |
THS THS TreeHouse Foods, Inc. | $1.5B | 12.8x | +2.6% | -7.2% | Hold | +26.1% |
KHC KHC The Kraft Heinz Company | $27.1B | 11.1x | 0.0% | -23.0% | Hold | -1.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MKC Dividend and Capital Return
MKC returns 4.1% total yield, led by a 3.85% dividend, raised 42 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
3.85%
Payout Ratio
61.2%
How MKC Splits Its Return
Div 3.85%
Dividend 3.85%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.79
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
42Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.9%
5Y Div CAGR
7.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$35M
Estimated Shares Retired
746.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
254M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.83 | +7.0% | 0.2% | 2.8% |
| 2024 | $1.71 | +7.5% | 0.3% | 2.4% |
| 2023 | $1.59 | +6.0% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $1.50 | +7.9% | 0.2% | 1.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsMKC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $69, implying +47.4% from the current price of $47. The bear case scenario is $37 and the bull case is $78.
02What is the MKC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MKC is $69 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $85 (+82.2% from today), and the low-end target is $51 (+9.3%). The base case model target is $59.
03Is McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) stock overvalued in 2026?
MKC trades at 15.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MKC in 2026 are: (1) Cost pressures — McCormick faces higher tariffs and cost pressures, expecting a $50 million tariff impact in 2026. (2) Segment-specific softness — The company is navigating segment-specific softness despite resilient demand and strong brands. (3) Regulatory risks — McCormick disclosed 41 risk factors in its earnings report, indicating potential regulatory and operational challenges. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is McCormick & Company, Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MKC will report consensus revenue of $7.3B (+7.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.29 (+12.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.9B in revenue.
06When does McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) report its next earnings?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-06-25. Consensus expects EPS of $0.71 and revenue of $1.9B. Over recent quarters, MKC has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does McCormick & Company, Incorporated generate?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) generated $879M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.8%. MKC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.8% yield) and share repurchases ($35M TTM).