Upside case
Bull case
$61+194.7%
HRL would need investors to value it at roughly 42x earnings — about 27x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
29
analysts
6 bullish · 7 bearish · 29 covering HRL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
16
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$27
+31.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$19 – $61
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.4B
HRL price targets
Three scenarios for where HRL stock could go
Current
~$21
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $21
Bear
$19
Base
$27
Bull
$61
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$27+30.0%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$19-7.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push HRL down roughly 8% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Hormel Foods Corporation
HRL · NYSEConsumer DefensivePackaged FoodsOctober year-end
Hormel Foods is a diversified food company that produces and markets branded meat, nut, and packaged food products. It generates revenue primarily through its refrigerated foods segment (~60% of sales) and grocery products segment (~30%), with the remainder from its Jennie-O turkey and international operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of iconic, century-old brands like SPAM and Skippy that command strong consumer loyalty and pricing power.
Market Cap
$11.4B
Revenue TTM
$12.1B
Net Income TTM
$489M
Net Margin
4.0%
HRL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.34
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.40
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.32/$0.30
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.34/$0.32
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.35/$0.34 | +2.4% | $2.9B/$2.9B | -0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.35/$0.40 | -12.8% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.32/$0.30 | +6.1% | $3.2B/$3.2B | -1.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.34/$0.32 | +6.3% | $3.0B/$3.1B | -1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.3B
+1.4% YoY
FY2
$12.5B
+1.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.08
+21.0% YoY
FY2
$1.13
+5.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$578M
FCF Margin: 4.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HRL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HRL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Retail Segment
61.6%
+1.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
94.5%
+1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Retail Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 61.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 1.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 94.5%, up 1.4% YoY.
HRL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $16 — implies -26.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
26.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HRL
23.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
6% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
HRL
23.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+21% premium
vs HRL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.8x
vs
5Y Average
24.3x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
14.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-26%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-6%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+21%
5Y Avg
24.3x
-2%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-9%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+21%
5Y Avg
16.5x
-16%
Price/FCF
21.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-0%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
+35%
5Y Avg
24.8x
-14%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-70%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+11%
5Y Avg
1.6x
-42%
Dividend Yield
5.56%
S&P 500
1.88%
+196%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
+103%
5Y Avg
3.25%
+71%
| Metric | HRL | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg HRL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.1x | 19.1x-26% | 14.6x | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.8x | 25.2x | 19.6x+21% | 24.3x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.8x | 15.3x | 11.4x+21% | 16.5x-16% |
| Price/FCF | 21.3x | 21.3x | 15.7x+35% | 24.8x-14% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-70% | 0.8x+11% | 1.6x-42% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.56% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 3.25% |
HRL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHRL Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
HRL returns 5.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
15.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.89
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$578M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$671M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.8× FCF
~3.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
5.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.15
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
132.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
550M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHRL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Hormel's complex supply chain is vulnerable to disruptions from natural disasters, disease outbreaks like avian influenza, or geopolitical events. Such disruptions can significantly affect production volume and increase costs.
High Risk
Input Cost Inflation
Rising costs for raw materials, commodities, and logistics pose a major risk to Hormel's profit margins. If these costs cannot be fully passed on to consumers through price increases, the company's profitability could be severely impacted.
High Risk
Consumer Demand and Trade-Down
Weakening consumer demand and a shift towards lower-priced alternatives or private label brands can significantly reduce Hormel's sales volume and profitability. This trend is particularly concerning in a competitive market.
Medium
Margin Pressure
Hormel faces ongoing margin pressure as input cost inflation outpaces price increases, especially in a market with strong competition from private label products. This could lead to squeezed profit margins.
Medium
IT System Vulnerabilities
The company's reliance on IT systems exposes it to risks from cyberattacks, outages, and implementation errors. Such vulnerabilities could lead to operational inefficiencies and damage to Hormel's reputation.
Medium
Manufacturing and Product Quality
Risks associated with manufacturing processes, including potential product recalls and maintaining product quality, are inherent in the food industry. Any significant issues could adversely affect Hormel's financial performance.
Lower
Climate Change
Physical risks from climate change, such as rising sea levels and water scarcity, can impact Hormel's operations and infrastructure. Additionally, transition risks related to regulations on refrigerants and fuels pose further challenges.
Lower
Economic and Political Environment
Changes in economic and political conditions, including inflation and trade policies, can create uncertainty for Hormel's operations. Such fluctuations may affect the company's overall financial health.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HRL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strategic Transformation
Hormel is actively transitioning from a traditional commodity processor to a branded food company through its 'Invest, Transform, Grow' initiative. This involves reshaping its portfolio to focus on higher-quality branded products, aiming for increased efficiency and better earnings mix.
Diversified Revenue Streams
The company has enhanced its product portfolio beyond traditional meat offerings, diversifying its revenue. In fiscal 2024, a significant portion of sales is expected from U.S. retail (62%) and U.S. foodservice (32%).
Resilient Financials and Dividend
Hormel demonstrates resilience with a solid revenue base and focus on profitability. It boasts a strong dividend yield, appealing to income-focused investors, and has a long history of increasing its dividend for over 59-60 years.
Earnings Recovery and Margin Improvement
While current earnings may be depressed due to factors like higher raw material and logistics costs, the bull case suggests that recovery is not fully reflected in the stock price. The company's restructuring efforts and focus on operational efficiency are expected to improve margins.
Undervaluation Potential
Some analyses suggest that Hormel could be undervalued, with a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis indicating a fair value price higher than its current trading price. The stock is trading below its 52-week high, suggesting potential for price appreciation.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
While many analysts hold a 'Hold' rating, there are no 'Sell' or 'Strong Sell' ratings, indicating that the market does not view Hormel as fundamentally broken. Some analysts are bullish, seeing potential for the stock to become a steady compounder with improved execution and earnings recovery.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HRL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$20.70
52W Range Position
3%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$20.32
+1.9% from the low
52-Week High
$31.86
-35.0% from the high
1 Month
-5.31%
3 Month
-16.97%
YTD
-11.5%
1 Year
-29.0%
3Y CAGR
-20.1%
5Y CAGR
-15.3%
10Y CAGR
-6.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HRL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.1x
vs 9.8x median
+43% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.4%
vs +2.7% median
-48% below peer median
Net Margin
4.0%
vs 5.5% median
-26% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $11.4B | 14.1x | +1.4% | 4.0% | Hold | +31.6% |
TSN TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | $24.2B | 17.5x | +2.2% | 0.8% | Buy | +3.2% |
SFD SFD Smithfield Foods, Inc. | $10.3B | 9.8x | -1.1% | 6.5% | Buy | +22.3% |
PPC PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $7.4B | 8.3x | +3.6% | 4.8% | Hold | +47.0% |
LW LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | $6.0B | 15.6x | +11.4% | 6.9% | Hold | +14.7% |
CPB CPB Campbell Soup Company | $6.2B | 9.6x | +2.7% | 5.5% | Hold | +23.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HRL Dividend and Capital Return
HRL returns 5.5% total yield, led by a 5.50% dividend, raised 34 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
5.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
5.50%
Payout Ratio
1.3%
How HRL Splits Its Return
Div 5.50%
Dividend 5.50%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.15
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
34Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.7%
5Y Div CAGR
4.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
550M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.16 | +2.7% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| 2024 | $1.13 | +2.7% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| 2023 | $1.10 | +5.8% | 0.1% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $1.04 | +6.1% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsHRL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $27, implying +31.6% from the current price of $21. The bear case scenario is $19 and the bull case is $61.
02What is the HRL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HRL is $27 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+44.9% from today), and the low-end target is $25 (+20.8%). The base case model target is $27.
03Is Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) stock overvalued in 2026?
HRL trades at 14.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HRL in 2026 are: (1) Supply Chain Disruptions — Hormel's complex supply chain is vulnerable to disruptions from natural disasters, disease outbreaks like avian influenza, or geopolitical events. (2) Input Cost Inflation — Rising costs for raw materials, commodities, and logistics pose a major risk to Hormel's profit margins. (3) Consumer Demand and Trade-Down — Weakening consumer demand and a shift towards lower-priced alternatives or private label brands can significantly reduce Hormel's sales volume and profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Hormel Foods Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HRL will report consensus revenue of $12.3B (+1.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.08 (+21.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.5B in revenue.
06When does Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HRL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Hormel Foods Corporation generate?
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) generated $578M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.8%. HRL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).