Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing SPIR more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
12
analysts
7 bullish · 1 bearish · 12 covering SPIR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
4
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$17
+4.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $541.0B
SPIR price targets
Three scenarios for where SPIR stock could go
Current
~$16
Confidence
26 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Spire Global, Inc.
SPIR · NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesDecember year-end
Spire Global operates a constellation of nanosatellites that collect Earth observation data — tracking maritime, aviation, and weather patterns. It generates revenue primarily through data-as-a-service subscriptions and analytics solutions sold to maritime, aviation, weather, and government clients. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary satellite constellation and unique data sets that provide real-time global coverage across multiple domains.
Market Cap
$541.0B
Revenue TTM
$72M
Net Income TTM
-$25.0B
Net Margin
-34960.3%
SPIR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
55%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q1 2025
EPS
$-0.83/$-0.92
Revenue
$22M/$20M
Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.63/$-0.68
Revenue
$24M/$23M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.33/$-0.33
Revenue
$21M/$22M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.39/$-0.49
Revenue
$16M/$15M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $-0.83/$-0.92 | +9.8% | $22M/$20M | +6.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $-0.63/$-0.68 | +7.4% | $24M/$23M | +5.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.33/$-0.33 | +0.0% | $21M/$22M | -1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.39/$-0.49 | +20.4% | $16M/$15M | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$64M
-9.9% YoY
FY2
$60M
-6.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.20
+74.0% YoY
FY2
$-0.08
+58.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$16.2B
FCF Margin: -22701.4%
Next Earnings
May 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.49
Expected Revenue
$15M
SPIR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SPIR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $80M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
45.8%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Americas is the largest reported region at 45.8%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
SPIR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $30 — implies +66.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
66.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SPIR
10.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
59% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
SPIR
10.2x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
60% discount
vs SPIR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.2x
vs
5Y Average
4.7x
+119% premium
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Industrials
20.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-59%
Industrials
25.7x
-60%
5Y Avg
4.7x
+119%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Industrials
1.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Industrials
13.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Industrials
21.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
7561.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+241772%
Industrials
1.6x
+476899%
5Y Avg
2.8x
+265541%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Industrials
1.27%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SPIR | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg SPIR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 20.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.2x | 25.1x-59% | 25.7x-60% | 4.7x+119% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 13.7x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 21.2x | — |
| Price/Sales | 7561.4x | 3.1x+241772% | 1.6x+476899% | 2.8x+265541% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.27% | — |
SPIR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSPIR Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for SPIR are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$72M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-35.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
40.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-121.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-34960.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.76
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$16.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-22701.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-47.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$24.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$16.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-88.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
32.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSPIR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Negative Free Cash Flow
Spire Global has reported negative free cash flow, indicating ongoing cash management challenges. While there have been improvements, the company continues to generate cash deficits, which could constrain operational flexibility and investment capacity.
High Risk
Revenue Decline
The company reported a significant year-over-year revenue decline in its fourth quarter, despite a sequential increase. This drop signals potential weakness in top-line growth and may impact future earnings.
High Risk
Capital Requirements
Spire Global may need additional capital to support business growth. Raising funds on unfavorable terms could dilute existing shareholders, increase debt leverage, and heighten insolvency risk.
Medium
Customer Concentration
The company relies on a few key clients for a substantial portion of its revenue. Concentration risk could materialize if any of these customers reduce or terminate contracts.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Spire faces intense competition in the satellite industry, with rapid technological changes and new service solutions from rivals. Pricing pressure and potential loss of market share could erode margins.
Medium
Regulatory Complexity
Operating in a complex regulatory environment exposes the company to compliance risks. Changes in regulations could increase costs or restrict operations.
Medium
Execution Risk
Scaling high-margin areas and achieving projected revenue growth, especially with a back-half weighted growth profile, carries execution risks. Delays or failures could impact financial performance.
Lower
Stock Volatility
As a small-cap stock, SPIR is subject to higher volatility. Market swings could lead to significant price fluctuations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SPIR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Analyst Buy Consensus
A majority of analysts covering Spire Global hold a "Buy" rating, with several issuing "Strong Buy" recommendations. In the last 20 days, Canaccord Genuity and Stifel both issued "Strong Buy" ratings, reflecting a unified bullish stance.
Strong Recent Momentum
The stock has surged 49.31% in a short period and achieved an 84.9% price growth over the last year, with a 129.4% year‑to‑date performance. Short‑term moving averages remain above long‑term averages, confirming bullish trends.
Strategic Shift to Space Services
Spire Global has divested its maritime business and is now focusing on high‑growth space services and defense intelligence. The company secured a multi‑year, eight‑figure space services deal, signaling accelerated top‑line growth.
Strong Cash Position
Spire Global maintains a cash balance exceeding $100 million, bolstered by the divestiture of its maritime business which eliminated debt and strengthened the balance sheet.
Subscription‑Based Revenue
The company operates on a subscription model, providing a robust recurring revenue stream anchored by multi‑year space services agreements.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SPIR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$16.46
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$6.60
+149.4% from the low
52-Week High
$23.59
-30.2% from the high
1 Month
+6.40%
3 Month
+69.69%
YTD
+110.8%
1 Year
+77.8%
3Y CAGR
+49.0%
5Y CAGR
-27.0%
10Y CAGR
-14.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SPIR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
-9.9%
vs +17.4% median
-157% below peer median
Net Margin
-34960.3%
vs -80.2% median
-43480% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPI SPIR Spire Global, Inc. | $541.0B | — | -9.9% | -34960.3% | Buy | +4.8% |
AST ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | $18.7B | — | +54.1% | -482.2% | Buy | +62.3% |
MNT MNTS Momentus Inc. | $3M | — | -63.8% | -3445.3% | — | — |
BKS BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. | $1.1B | — | +16.6% | -65.9% | Buy | -36.0% |
SAT SATL Satellogic Inc. | $939M | — | +46.6% | -19.4% | Sell | -21.4% |
PL PL Planet Labs PBC | $10.8B | — | +17.4% | -80.2% | Buy | -31.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsSPIR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $17, implying +4.8% from the current price of $16.
02What is the SPIR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SPIR is $17 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $22 (+33.7% from today), and the low-end target is $9 (-45.3%).
03Is Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for SPIR is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SPIR in 2026 are: (1) Negative Free Cash Flow — Spire Global has reported negative free cash flow, indicating ongoing cash management challenges. (2) Revenue Decline — The company reported a significant year-over-year revenue decline in its fourth quarter, despite a sequential increase. (3) Capital Requirements — Spire Global may need additional capital to support business growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Spire Global, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SPIR will report consensus revenue of $64M (-9.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.20 (+74.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $60M in revenue.
06When does Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) report its next earnings?
Spire Global, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-13. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.49 and revenue of $15M. Over recent quarters, SPIR has beaten EPS estimates 73% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Spire Global, Inc. generate?
Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) had a free cash outflow of $16.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22701.4%. SPIR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).