Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing SQM more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
16
analysts
5 bullish · 3 bearish · 16 covering SQM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
8
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$76
-19.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.3B
SQM price targets
Three scenarios for where SQM stock could go
Current
~$93
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.
SQM · NYSEBasic MaterialsChemicals - SpecialtyDecember year-end
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile is a Chilean chemical company that produces specialty fertilizers, lithium, iodine, and industrial chemicals from its unique mineral deposits. It generates revenue primarily from lithium production — which has become its largest segment — along with specialty plant nutrients, iodine derivatives, and potassium products. The company's key advantage is its ownership of some of the world's richest lithium brine deposits in the Atacama Desert, giving it low-cost production and strategic control over critical battery materials.
Market Cap
$13.3B
Revenue TTM
$4.3B
Net Income TTM
$524M
Net Margin
12.1%
SQM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-9.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.63
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.31/$0.52
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.63/$0.69
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.64/$0.75
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.48/$0.63 | -23.8% | $1.0B/$1.1B | -7.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.31/$0.52 | -40.4% | $1.0B/$1.2B | -15.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.63/$0.69 | -9.4% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -4.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.64/$0.75 | -14.7% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +5.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.0B
+16.3% YoY
FY2
$4.6B
-9.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.08
+122.4% YoY
FY2
$3.63
-11.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$66M
FCF Margin: 1.5%
Next Earnings
May 26, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.36
Expected Revenue
$1.7B
SQM beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SQM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $4.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Lithium and Derivatives
49.5%
-72.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Asia and others Country
60.6%
-66.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Lithium and Derivatives is the largest disclosed segment at 49.5% of FY 2024 revenue, down 72.5% YoY.
Asia and others Country is the largest reported region at 60.6%, down 66.9% YoY.
SQM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $63 — implies -31.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
31.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SQM
-65.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
361% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
SQM
-65.8x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
387% discount
vs SQM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-65.8x
vs
5Y Average
29.5x
323% discount
Forward PE
15.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-20%
Basic Materials
15.4x
-0%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-65.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-361%
Basic Materials
22.9x
-387%
5Y Avg
29.5x
-323%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Basic Materials
1.22x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+3%
Basic Materials
11.4x
+37%
5Y Avg
17.7x
-12%
Price/FCF
44.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
+107%
Basic Materials
27.5x
+60%
5Y Avg
27.2x
+62%
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-6%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+50%
5Y Avg
3.8x
-22%
Dividend Yield
0.25%
S&P 500
1.88%
-87%
Basic Materials
1.37%
-82%
5Y Avg
4.94%
-95%
| Metric | SQM | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg SQM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.3x | 19.1x-20% | 15.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | -65.8x | 25.2x-361% | 22.9x-387% | 29.5x-323% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.22x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.7x | 15.3x | 11.4x+37% | 17.7x-12% |
| Price/FCF | 44.1x | 21.3x+107% | 27.5x+60% | 27.2x+62% |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 2.0x+50% | 3.8x-22% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.25% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 4.94% |
SQM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSQM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for SQM are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-9.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.84
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$66M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
52.4× FCF
~52.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
143M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSQM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Lithium Price Volatility
SQM's financial performance is heavily tied to lithium prices, which have experienced significant fluctuations. A prolonged period of low prices could negatively impact earnings and the company's ability to fund expansion projects.
High Risk
Chilean Government Strategy
The Chilean government's 'National Lithium Strategy' poses a significant risk, especially with the Salar de Atacama concession expiring in December 2030. Proposed terms could significantly affect margins for SQM.
High Risk
Production Ramp-Up Challenges
Expanding production capacity in new geographical areas presents risks such as technical difficulties, delays in reaching full capacity, and higher costs. These challenges could lead to lower-than-expected output.
Medium
Oversupply Concerns
Recent research highlights potential lithium market oversupply, which could lead to a less favorable risk-reward setup for producers like SQM. This could further pressure lithium prices and margins.
Medium
Interest Rate Environment
The current high-interest rate environment poses a challenge for SQM, a capital-intensive company. Increased borrowing costs could impact financial flexibility and profitability.
Medium
Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks
Expansion into new regions exposes SQM to different regulatory environments and potential geopolitical risks. Changes in regulations could slow growth and increase operational complexities.
Lower
Battery-Chemistry Disruption
Potential disruptions in battery chemistry could impact demand for SQM's products. This risk is particularly relevant as the electric vehicle market evolves.
Lower
Community and Social Risks
Community and social risks could slow growth for SQM, particularly in regions where local opposition to mining activities may arise. These factors could affect operational timelines and project approvals.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SQM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Lithium Market Outlook
The global lithium market is projected to grow by approximately 25% by 2026, driven by rising demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS). Early signs of a more balanced supply-demand dynamic are emerging, which is expected to lead to a tighter market and positive pricing trends.
SQM's Production Capacity Expansion
SQM is actively expanding its production capacity, with plans to reach 300,000 tons of lithium by 2030. This includes targets of 240,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate and 100,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide capacity by 2026.
Record Sales and Financial Turnaround
In 2025, SQM reported a significant turnaround, moving from a net loss in 2024 to a substantial net income, driven by record lithium sales volumes. This performance underscores the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities.
Diversified Portfolio for Stability
SQM's diversified portfolio, particularly its strong performance in the iodine business, provides a crucial buffer against the cyclical nature of lithium prices. The iodine segment significantly contributed to gross profit in 2025, enhancing overall financial stability.
Strategic Joint Ventures and Operations
The resolution of SQM's joint venture with Codelco could enhance market perception and provide access to additional lithium resources. Additionally, SQM's Australian operations are becoming increasingly important, with a significant portion of future lithium production expected from spodumene sources.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SQM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$93.46
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.36
+218.3% from the low
52-Week High
$95.56
-2.2% from the high
1 Month
+16.17%
3 Month
+30.75%
YTD
+34.0%
1 Year
+176.1%
3Y CAGR
+10.6%
5Y CAGR
+12.0%
10Y CAGR
+16.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SQM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.3x
vs 18.9x median
-19% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.3%
vs +2.3% median
+599% above peer median
Net Margin
12.1%
vs 1.7% median
+604% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SQM SQM Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. | $13.3B | 15.3x | +16.3% | 12.1% | Hold | -19.2% |
ALB ALB Albemarle Corporation | $22.7B | 21.7x | -13.1% | -5.0% | Hold | -0.9% |
LAC LAC Lithium Americas Corp. | $1.5B | — | — | — | Hold | +16.9% |
SGM SGML Sigma Lithium Corporation | $2.5B | 25.8x | +31.4% | -23.3% | Buy | -21.2% |
MOS MOS The Mosaic Company | $7.5B | 16.1x | +3.3% | 10.5% | Hold | +32.6% |
NTR NTR Nutrien Ltd. | $35.5B | 13.0x | +1.4% | 8.4% | Buy | +14.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SQM Dividend and Capital Return
SQM returns 0.3% total yield, led by a 0.25% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.25%
Payout Ratio
—
How SQM Splits Its Return
Div 0.25%
Dividend 0.25%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-75.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-31.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
143M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.12 | -43.8% | — | — |
| 2024 | $0.21 | -95.8% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2023 | $5.12 | -34.4% | 0.0% | 8.6% |
| 2022 | $7.81 | +295.4% | 0.0% | 9.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsSQM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $76, implying -19.2% from the current price of $93.
02What is the SQM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SQM is $76 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $91 (-2.6% from today), and the low-end target is $53 (-43.3%).
03Is Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) stock overvalued in 2026?
SQM trades at 15.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SQM in 2026 are: (1) Lithium Price Volatility — SQM's financial performance is heavily tied to lithium prices, which have experienced significant fluctuations. (2) Chilean Government Strategy — The Chilean government's 'National Lithium Strategy' poses a significant risk, especially with the Salar de Atacama concession expiring in December 2030. (3) Production Ramp-Up Challenges — Expanding production capacity in new geographical areas presents risks such as technical difficulties, delays in reaching full capacity, and higher costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SQM will report consensus revenue of $5.0B (+16.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.08 (+122.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.6B in revenue.
06When does Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) report its next earnings?
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-26. Consensus expects EPS of $1.36 and revenue of $1.7B. Over recent quarters, SQM has beaten EPS estimates 8% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. generate?
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) generated $66M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.5%. SQM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).