Upside case
Bull case
$110+38.6%
SQM would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
16
analysts
5 bullish · 3 bearish · 16 covering SQM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
8
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$91
+14.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$53 – $110
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.8B
SQM price targets
Three scenarios for where SQM stock could go
Current
~$80
Confidence
38 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $80
Bear
$53
Base
$84
Bull
$110
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$84+5.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing SQM — at roughly 13x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$53-33.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push SQM down roughly 34% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.
SQM · NYSEBasic MaterialsChemicals - SpecialtyDecember year-end
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile is a Chilean chemical company that produces specialty fertilizers, lithium, iodine, and industrial chemicals from its unique mineral deposits. It generates revenue primarily from lithium production — which has become its largest segment — along with specialty plant nutrients, iodine derivatives, and potassium products. The company's key advantage is its ownership of some of the world's richest lithium brine deposits in the Atacama Desert, giving it low-cost production and strategic control over critical battery materials.
Market Cap
$22.8B
Revenue TTM
$5.3B
Net Income TTM
$817M
Net Margin
15.4%
SQM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-10.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.31/$0.52
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.63/$0.69
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.64/$0.75
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.28/$1.78
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.31/$0.52 | -40.4% | $1.0B/$1.2B | -15.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.63/$0.69 | -9.4% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -4.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.64/$0.75 | -14.7% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +5.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.28/$1.78 | -28.1% | $1.8B/$1.7B | +3.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.0B
+12.3% YoY
FY2
$6.9B
+15.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.20
+46.6% YoY
FY2
$4.66
+10.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 20.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SQM beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SQM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Lithium and Derivatives
50.0%
+2.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Asia and others Country
63.0%
+5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Lithium and Derivatives is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.1% YoY.
Asia and others Country is the largest reported region at 63.0%, up 5.0% YoY.
SQM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $48 — implies -40.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
40.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SQM
38.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+58% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
SQM
38.7x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+64% premium
vs SQM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
38.7x
vs
5Y Average
18.1x
+114% premium
Forward PE
12.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-36%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
38.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+58%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+64%
5Y Avg
18.1x
+114%
PEG Ratio
1.43x
S&P 500
1.66x
-14%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+9%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+50%
5Y Avg
11.1x
+49%
Price/FCF
52.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+152%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+80%
5Y Avg
31.6x
+65%
Price/Sales
5.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+61%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+165%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+55%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
S&P 500
1.91%
-99%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-99%
5Y Avg
4.60%
-100%
| Metric | SQM | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg SQM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.1x | 18.8x-36% | 14.9x-19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 38.7x | 24.4x+58% | 23.6x+64% | 18.1x+114% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.43x | 1.66x-14% | 1.23x+16% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.5x | 15.2x | 11.0x+50% | 11.1x+49% |
| Price/FCF | 52.1x | 20.7x+152% | 29.0x+80% | 31.6x+65% |
| Price/Sales | 5.0x | 3.1x+61% | 1.9x+165% | 3.2x+55% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.02% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 4.60% |
SQM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSQM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SQM generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 20.3% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+18.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
34.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.87
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.8× FCF
~2.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
286M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSQM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Strategic Constraints
Downgraded to hold due to long-term capped growth and strategic constraints from the Codelco JV.
Medium
Valuation Risk
Projected revenue and EPS growth may not justify current valuations, with a wide target range ($95-$221.91) indicating uncertainty.
Medium
Lithium Market Dynamics
Evolving demand from electric vehicle and energy storage markets introduces volatility and competitive pressures.
Lower
Cost Advantage
SQM maintains a leading position as a low-cost lithium producer, mitigating some operational risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SQM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong lithium market position
SQM is highlighted as a potential undervalued lithium stock, indicating a strong position in the growing lithium market.
Positive analyst price target
Analysts project a 12-month target range up to $221.91, implying significant upside potential from the current price.
Attractive valuation metrics
SQM's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 16.97 and 20.45 suggest the stock is reasonably valued relative to earnings.
Leadership and governance updates
Recent board appointments, such as Hernán Büchi Buc as Vice Chairman, signal strong governance and strategic direction.
Solid quarterly performance
First-quarter 2026 results reported sales in the US, indicating robust financial performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SQM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$79.69
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$31.90
+149.8% from the low
52-Week High
$98.00
-18.7% from the high
1 Month
-3.59%
3 Month
+6.21%
YTD
+14.3%
1 Year
+140.7%
3Y CAGR
+3.5%
5Y CAGR
+13.4%
10Y CAGR
+12.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SQM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.1x
vs 12.7x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.3%
vs +3.6% median
+239% above peer median
Net Margin
15.4%
vs 0.9% median
+1621% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SQM SQM Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. | $22.8B | 12.1x | +12.3% | 15.4% | Hold | +14.2% |
ALB ALB Albemarle Corporation | $18.9B | 13.2x | +5.7% | -4.2% | Hold | +30.8% |
LAC LAC Lithium Americas Corp. | $976M | — | +10.0% | — | Hold | +60.2% |
SGM SGML Sigma Lithium Corporation | $1.5B | 12.2x | -12.0% | -42.2% | Buy | +31.9% |
MOS MOS The Mosaic Company | $7.3B | 27.8x | +3.6% | 6.0% | Hold | +22.3% |
NTR NTR Nutrien Ltd. | $30.2B | 11.0x | +3.6% | 8.6% | Buy | +30.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SQM Dividend and Capital Return
SQM does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
Payout Ratio
0.7%
How SQM Splits Its Return
Div 0.02%
Dividend 0.02%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-75.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-31.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
286M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.02 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.12 | -43.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $0.21 | -95.8% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2023 | $5.12 | -34.5% | 0.0% | 8.6% |
| 2022 | $7.81 | +295.7% | 0.0% | 9.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsSQM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $91, implying +14.2% from the current price of $80. The bear case scenario is $53 and the bull case is $110.
02What is the SQM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SQM is $91 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $106 (+33.0% from today), and the low-end target is $53 (-33.5%). The base case model target is $84.
03Is Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) stock overvalued in 2026?
SQM trades at 12.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SQM in 2026 are: (1) Strategic Constraints — Downgraded to hold due to long-term capped growth and strategic constraints from the Codelco JV. (2) Valuation Risk — Projected revenue and EPS growth may not justify current valuations, with a wide target range ($95-$221. (3) Lithium Market Dynamics — Evolving demand from electric vehicle and energy storage markets introduces volatility and competitive pressures. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SQM will report consensus revenue of $6.0B (+12.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.20 (+46.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.9B in revenue.
06When does Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SQM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. generate?
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.3%. SQM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).