Upside case
Bull case
$1023+116.4%
TMO would need investors to value it at roughly 41x earnings — about 22x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
38 bullish · 0 bearish · 42 covering TMO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
38
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$655
+38.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$392 – $1023
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $175.8B
TMO price targets
Three scenarios for where TMO stock could go
Current
~$473
Confidence
68 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $473
Bear
$392
Base
$597
Bull
$1023
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$597+26.3%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$392-17.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push TMO down roughly 17% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
TMO · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchDecember year-end
Thermo Fisher Scientific is a global provider of scientific instruments, reagents, consumables, software, and services for research, analysis, discovery, and diagnostics across life sciences, healthcare, and industrial markets. It generates revenue primarily through four segments: life sciences solutions (~40%), analytical instruments (~25%), specialty diagnostics (~15%), and laboratory products & biopharma services (~20%). The company's moat lies in its massive scale, integrated ecosystem of complementary products and services, and entrenched customer relationships across academic, government, pharmaceutical, and industrial laboratories worldwide.
Market Cap
$175.8B
Revenue TTM
$45.2B
Net Income TTM
$6.9B
Net Margin
15.2%
TMO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.36/$5.23
Revenue
$10.9B/$10.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.79/$5.50
Revenue
$11.1B/$10.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.57/$6.45
Revenue
$12.2B/$11.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.44/$5.25
Revenue
$11.0B/$10.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.36/$5.23 | +2.5% | $10.9B/$10.7B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.79/$5.50 | +5.3% | $11.1B/$10.9B | +1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.57/$6.45 | +1.9% | $12.2B/$11.9B | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.44/$5.25 | +3.6% | $11.0B/$10.9B | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$47.1B
+4.1% YoY
FY2
$48.8B
+3.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$21.50
+16.9% YoY
FY2
$22.40
+4.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.7B
FCF Margin: 14.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TMO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TMO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $44.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Consumables
41.9%
+6.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
51.7%
+2.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Consumables is the largest disclosed segment at 41.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 51.7%, up 2.4% YoY.
TMO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $472 — implies +0.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
0.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TMO
26.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+6% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
TMO
26.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+20% premium
vs TMO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.7x
vs
5Y Average
32.8x
19% discount
Forward PE
19.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-0%
Healthcare
19.0x
0%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
+6%
Healthcare
22.1x
+20%
5Y Avg
32.8x
-19%
PEG Ratio
12.62x
S&P 500
1.75x
+623%
Healthcare
1.52x
+730%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+24%
Healthcare
14.1x
+34%
5Y Avg
21.8x
-13%
Price/FCF
27.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+31%
Healthcare
18.7x
+50%
5Y Avg
32.2x
-13%
Price/Sales
3.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+26%
Healthcare
2.8x
+38%
5Y Avg
5.2x
-24%
Dividend Yield
0.36%
S&P 500
1.88%
-81%
Healthcare
1.40%
-75%
5Y Avg
0.24%
+49%
| Metric | TMO | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg TMO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.0x | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.7x | 25.2x | 22.1x+20% | 32.8x-19% |
| PEG Ratio | 12.62x | 1.75x+623% | 1.52x+730% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.0x | 15.3x+24% | 14.1x+34% | 21.8x-13% |
| Price/FCF | 27.9x | 21.3x+31% | 18.7x+50% | 32.2x-13% |
| Price/Sales | 3.9x | 3.1x+26% | 2.8x+38% | 5.2x-24% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.36% | 1.88% | 1.40% | 0.24% |
TMO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTMO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TMO generates $6.7B in free cash flow at a 14.9% margin — returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$45.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$18.39
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$6.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$31.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.6× FCF
~4.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.69
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
9.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
372M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTMO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Load & Interest Risk
T-Mobile carries a substantial debt load that limits financial flexibility and raises borrowing costs, particularly if interest rates rise. The debt burden is amplified by recent acquisitions and ongoing network upgrade investments, potentially constraining capital allocation for growth.
High Risk
M&A Integration Risk
The company’s aggressive M&A strategy exposes it to costly integration failures and operational complexities if new acquisitions are not assimilated successfully. Failed deals could hinder customer growth and expansion plans, eroding projected synergies.
High Risk
Capital Markets & Financing
Changes in credit market conditions, global financial instability, inflation, and monetary policy shifts can impair T-Mobile’s ability to raise debt on favorable terms, leading to higher borrowing costs or financing constraints. The company recently issued new senior notes to fund an asset acquisition, illustrating its reliance on debt markets.
Medium
Competitive Pricing Pressure
T-Mobile operates in a highly competitive wireless market, facing rivals AT&T and Verizon, as well as cable operators and MVNOs. This competition often triggers promotional activities and price wars, compressing service pricing and squeezing net margins.
Medium
Cybersecurity & Data Breaches
The company’s reliance on digital platforms and sensitive customer data makes it vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Past data breaches have resulted in significant financial penalties and heightened regulatory scrutiny, potentially damaging reputation and incurring additional costs.
Medium
Trade Tariff & Supply Chain
T-Mobile’s dependence on international suppliers for network equipment and devices exposes it to higher tariffs and trade restrictions. Such disruptions could increase costs, disrupt the supply chain, and necessitate price hikes to maintain profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TMO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
5G Leadership & Network Expansion
T‑Mobile’s standalone 5G network is positioned as a foundation for advanced AI workloads and future connectivity solutions, underscoring its role as a 5G leader in the U.S. market.
Strategic Partnerships with NVIDIA & Nokia
A recent collaboration with NVIDIA and Nokia leverages AI‑powered, edge‑based 5G infrastructure for physical AI applications, deepening T‑Mobile’s involvement in higher‑value connectivity and potential broadband expansion.
Shareholder Returns via Dividend
T‑Mobile has declared a cash dividend of $1.02 per share, signaling a commitment to disciplined capital returns and enhancing shareholder value.
Strong Customer Growth in Postpaid
The company has demonstrated industry‑leading performance in postpaid customer net additions, reinforcing its strong market position.
Projected Revenue & Earnings Growth to 2028
T‑Mobile’s narrative projects significant revenue and earnings growth through 2028, requiring consistent yearly revenue growth to sustain its expansion trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TMO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$472.95
52W Range Position
34%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$385.46
+22.7% from the low
52-Week High
$643.99
-26.6% from the high
1 Month
-3.12%
3 Month
-12.87%
YTD
-20.2%
1 Year
+16.2%
3Y CAGR
-4.5%
5Y CAGR
+0.1%
10Y CAGR
+12.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TMO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.0x
vs 20.7x median
-8% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.1%
vs +4.6% median
-12% below peer median
Net Margin
15.2%
vs 11.9% median
+27% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMO TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | $175.8B | 19.0x | +4.1% | 15.2% | Buy | +38.4% |
DHR DHR Danaher Corporation | $123.8B | 20.7x | +1.8% | 14.9% | Buy | +41.2% |
A A Agilent Technologies, Inc. | $33.3B | 19.7x | +4.6% | 18.3% | Buy | +41.0% |
WAT WAT Waters Corporation | $22.8B | 24.3x | +33.4% | 11.9% | Hold | +15.2% |
BIO BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. | $7.0B | 25.2x | -0.1% | 6.5% | Buy | +20.6% |
BRK BRKR Bruker Corporation | $6.4B | 20.0x | +10.4% | -0.8% | Buy | +23.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TMO Dividend and Capital Return
TMO returns capital mainly through $3.0B/year in buybacks (1.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.36% dividend — combining for 2.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 8 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.7%
Dividend Yield
0.36%
Payout Ratio
9.4%
How TMO Splits Its Return
Div 0.36%
Buyback 1.7%
Dividend 0.36%Buybacks 1.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.69
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.7%
5Y Div CAGR
14.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
372M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.47 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.72 | +10.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| 2024 | $1.56 | +11.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $1.40 | +16.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| 2022 | $1.20 | +15.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsTMO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $655, implying +38.4% from the current price of $473. The bear case scenario is $392 and the bull case is $1023.
02What is the TMO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TMO is $655 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $750 (+58.6% from today), and the low-end target is $600 (+26.9%). The base case model target is $597.
03Is Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) stock overvalued in 2026?
TMO trades at 19.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TMO in 2026 are: (1) Debt Load & Interest Risk — T-Mobile carries a substantial debt load that limits financial flexibility and raises borrowing costs, particularly if interest rates rise. (2) M&A Integration Risk — The company’s aggressive M&A strategy exposes it to costly integration failures and operational complexities if new acquisitions are not assimilated successfully. (3) Capital Markets & Financing — Changes in credit market conditions, global financial instability, inflation, and monetary policy shifts can impair T-Mobile’s ability to raise debt on favorable terms, leading to higher borrowing costs or financing constraints. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TMO will report consensus revenue of $47.1B (+4.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $21.50 (+16.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $48.8B in revenue.
06When does Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TMO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. generate?
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) generated $6.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.9%. TMO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($3.0B TTM).