Upside case
Bull case
$58+134.9%
TOST would need investors to value it at roughly 43x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Toast, Inc. (TOST) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
30
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 30 covering TOST
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
14
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$36
+46.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$28 – $58
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.3B
TOST price targets
Three scenarios for where TOST stock could go
Current
~$25
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $25
Bear
$28
Base
$44
Bull
$58
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$44+78.3%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$28+12.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TOST down roughly 12% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Toast, Inc.
TOST · NYSETechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Toast is a cloud-based restaurant management platform that provides point-of-sale systems, payment processing, and operational software to eateries. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its software platform (about 25% of revenue) and payment processing fees from restaurant transactions (roughly 70% of revenue). The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated ecosystem—combining hardware, software, and payments—which creates high switching costs for restaurants once they adopt the full Toast system.
Market Cap
$14.3B
Revenue TTM
$6.4B
Net Income TTM
$412M
Net Margin
6.4%
TOST Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+44.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.24/$0.23
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.25/$0.24
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.23/$0.24
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.29/$0.27
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.24/$0.23 | +6.6% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.25/$0.24 | +4.4% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.23/$0.24 | -3.8% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.29/$0.27 | +6.2% | $1.6B/$1.6B | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.5B
+16.1% YoY
FY2
$8.6B
+15.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.89
+30.7% YoY
FY2
$0.99
+10.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$654M
FCF Margin: 10.1%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.32
Expected Revenue
$1.9B
TOST beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TOST Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Technology Service
84.3%
+24.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Technology Service is the largest disclosed segment at 84.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 24.3% YoY.
TOST Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $29 — implies +17.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
17.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TOST
44.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+80% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TOST
44.0x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+52% premium
vs TOST 5Y Avg P/E
Today
44.0x
vs
5Y Average
63.4x
31% discount
Forward PE
18.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-2%
Technology
22.3x
-17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
44.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+80%
Technology
29.0x
+52%
5Y Avg
63.4x
-31%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
34.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+130%
Technology
16.6x
+110%
5Y Avg
54.4x
-36%
Price/FCF
23.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+14%
Technology
19.2x
+22%
5Y Avg
70.2x
-66%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-25%
Technology
2.4x
-5%
5Y Avg
4.8x
-52%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TOST | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TOST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.5x | 18.8x | 22.3x-17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 44.0x | 24.4x+80% | 29.0x+52% | 63.4x-31% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.9x | 15.2x+130% | 16.6x+110% | 54.4x-36% |
| Price/FCF | 23.5x | 20.7x+14% | 19.2x+22% | 70.2x-66% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-25% | 2.4x | 4.8x-52% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
TOST trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTOST Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TOST generates $654M in free cash flow at a 10.1% margin — 30.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+23.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.68
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$654M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
30.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
20.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$107M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
580M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTOST Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Competitive pressures
Toast operates in a highly competitive and rapidly changing environment, which could threaten its market dominance and growth trajectory.
Medium
Valuation concerns
Despite a significant pullback from its 52-week high, Toast's valuation may still be at risk if growth expectations are not met.
Medium
Execution risks
Toast's ability to maintain its growth and improve operations is subject to execution risks, which could impact financial performance.
Lower
Market sentiment
The stock's performance could be influenced by broader market sentiment, despite strong analyst price targets and bullish projections.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TOST Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Vertical integration advantage
Toast's vertically integrated platform enhances efficiency and provides a comprehensive solution for restaurant operations.
Post-pandemic turnaround
The company has demonstrated a strong recovery post-pandemic, showcasing resilience and growth potential.
Recurring revenue strength
Toast benefits from a robust recurring revenue model, driven by its SaaS-based offerings and restaurant subscriptions.
AI-driven insights
Leveraging AI, Toast provides actionable insights to restaurants, helping them optimize operations and increase sales.
Rapid restaurant adoption
Toast is experiencing swift adoption among restaurants, indicating strong market demand and scalability.
Margin expansion potential
The company is poised for margin expansion due to operational efficiencies and scaling benefits.
Enhanced guest experience
Toast's platform improves the guest experience through features like order customization and seamless payment options.
Revenue growth trajectory
Toast has achieved significant revenue growth, with reported figures like $1.34 billion, highlighting its market traction.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TOST Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$24.66
52W Range Position
9%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.26
+10.8% from the low
52-Week High
$49.66
-50.3% from the high
1 Month
+8.92%
3 Month
-11.45%
YTD
-27.5%
1 Year
-42.1%
3Y CAGR
+4.5%
5Y CAGR
-17.0%
10Y CAGR
-8.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TOST vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.5x
vs 19.3x median
-4% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.1%
vs +15.3% median
+5% above peer median
Net Margin
6.4%
vs -5.2% median
+224% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TOS TOST Toast, Inc. | $14.3B | 18.5x | +16.1% | 6.4% | Buy | +46.2% |
PAX PAX Patria Investments Limited | $1.8B | 8.3x | +9.0% | 22.3% | Buy | +58.3% |
PAR PAR PAR Technology Corporation | $631M | 26.4x | +15.3% | -16.0% | Buy | +22.6% |
RSK RSKD Riskified Ltd. | $762M | 20.4x | +11.5% | -5.2% | Buy | +16.2% |
LSP LSPD Lightspeed Commerce Inc. | $1.3B | 19.3x | +15.7% | -11.8% | Buy | +23.0% |
FOU FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc. | $2.7B | 6.2x | +16.6% | 2.3% | Buy | +71.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TOST Dividend and Capital Return
TOST returns 0.7% annually — null% through dividends and 0.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$107M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
580M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsTOST Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Toast, Inc. (TOST) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $36, implying +46.2% from the current price of $25. The bear case scenario is $28 and the bull case is $58.
02What is the TOST stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TOST is $36 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $45 (+82.5% from today), and the low-end target is $28 (+13.5%). The base case model target is $44.
03Is Toast, Inc. (TOST) stock overvalued in 2026?
TOST trades at 18.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Toast, Inc. (TOST) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TOST in 2026 are: (1) Competitive pressures — Toast operates in a highly competitive and rapidly changing environment, which could threaten its market dominance and growth trajectory. (2) Valuation concerns — Despite a significant pullback from its 52-week high, Toast's valuation may still be at risk if growth expectations are not met. (3) Execution risks — Toast's ability to maintain its growth and improve operations is subject to execution risks, which could impact financial performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Toast, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TOST will report consensus revenue of $7.5B (+16.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.89 (+30.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.6B in revenue.
06When does Toast, Inc. (TOST) report its next earnings?
Toast, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $0.32 and revenue of $1.9B. Over recent quarters, TOST has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Toast, Inc. generate?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) generated $654M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.1%. TOST returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($107M TTM).