Upside case
Bull case
$62+120.1%
TOST would need investors to value it at roughly 50x earnings — about 27x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Toast, Inc. (TOST) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 29 covering TOST
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$40
+40.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $62
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.8B
TOST price targets
Three scenarios for where TOST stock could go
Current
~$28
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $28
Base
$73
Bull
$62
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$73+157.9%
At 59x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Toast, Inc.
TOST · NYSETechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Toast is a cloud-based restaurant management platform that provides point-of-sale systems, payment processing, and operational software to eateries. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its software platform (about 25% of revenue) and payment processing fees from restaurant transactions (roughly 70% of revenue). The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated ecosystem—combining hardware, software, and payments—which creates high switching costs for restaurants once they adopt the full Toast system.
Market Cap
$14.8B
Revenue TTM
$6.2B
Net Income TTM
$342M
Net Margin
5.6%
TOST Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+45.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.20/$0.18
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.24/$0.23
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.25/$0.24
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.23/$0.24
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.20/$0.18 | +11.3% | $1.3B/$1.3B | -0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.24/$0.23 | +6.6% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.25/$0.24 | +4.4% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.23/$0.24 | -3.8% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.8B
+26.8% YoY
FY2
$10.0B
+28.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.04
+84.8% YoY
FY2
$1.44
+38.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$608M
FCF Margin: 9.9%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.28
Expected Revenue
$1.6B
TOST beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TOST Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $4.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Technology Service
85.2%
+27.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Technology Service is the largest disclosed segment at 85.2% of FY 2024 revenue, up 27.1% YoY.
TOST Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $28 — implies -3.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
3.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TOST
50.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+100% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TOST
50.6x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+84% premium
vs TOST 5Y Avg P/E
Today
50.6x
vs
5Y Average
63.4x
20% discount
Forward PE
22.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+20%
Technology
21.7x
+5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
50.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+100%
Technology
27.5x
+84%
5Y Avg
63.4x
-20%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
36.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+138%
Technology
17.4x
+109%
5Y Avg
54.4x
-33%
Price/FCF
24.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+14%
Technology
19.8x
+23%
5Y Avg
70.2x
-65%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-23%
Technology
2.4x
-0%
5Y Avg
4.8x
-50%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TOST | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TOST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.8x | 19.1x+20% | 21.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | 50.6x | 25.2x+100% | 27.5x+84% | 63.4x-20% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.3x | 15.3x+138% | 17.4x+109% | 54.4x-33% |
| Price/FCF | 24.4x | 21.3x+14% | 19.8x+23% | 70.2x-65% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-23% | 2.4x | 4.8x-50% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
TOST trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTOST Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TOST generates $608M in free cash flow at a 9.9% margin — 30.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+24.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.56
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$608M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
30.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$107M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
607M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTOST Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Intense Competition
Toast operates in a highly competitive market with numerous players, including major competitors like Square, NCR Voyix, and Shift4. The need for continuous innovation to maintain market share, currently at 21.07% in the POS systems market, poses a significant risk to the company's growth and profitability.
High Risk
Restaurant Industry Volatility
Toast's business model is heavily reliant on the restaurant industry, which is sensitive to economic downturns and changing consumer preferences. A slowdown in restaurant spending can directly impact payment volumes and IT budgets, significantly affecting Toast's revenue.
High Risk
High Client Turnover
The restaurant industry experiences significant turnover, with a high failure rate for new establishments. This results in a high client turnover rate for Toast, necessitating constant customer acquisition to sustain growth.
Medium
Economic Sensitivity
Toast's performance is closely tied to the overall economy, as restaurants are particularly vulnerable to recessions. Economic downturns can lead to reduced consumer dining trends, directly impacting Toast's revenue.
Medium
Dependence on Restaurant Spending
Toast's growth is driven by recurring revenue and payment processing linked to restaurant activity. Any downturn in consumer dining trends or restaurant health can adversely affect Toast's financial performance.
Medium
AI Disruption Risk
While Toast views AI as an opportunity, there is a risk that competitors could leverage AI to rapidly catch up, potentially commoditizing the market and eroding Toast's competitive advantage.
Lower
Corporate Governance Issues
Provisions in Toast's charter documents and Delaware law may complicate acquisitions and limit stockholder attempts to replace management, which could impact stock price and investor confidence.
Lower
Operating Expenses Challenges
Toast faces challenges with increasing operating expenses, particularly in sales, marketing, and research and development. If not managed effectively, these rising costs could strain profit margins.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TOST Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance
Toast's revenue is projected to reach $6.15 billion in 2025, marking a 24% increase from 2024. Additionally, GAAP net income is expected to rise significantly to $342 million in 2025 from just $19 million in 2024, while free cash flow doubles to $608 million.
Rapid Customer Base Expansion
In 2025, Toast added a record 30,000 net new locations, bringing its total to approximately 164,000. The company's Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) has surpassed $2 billion, reflecting a robust 26% year-over-year growth.
Innovative Integrated Platform
Toast's integrated platform, which includes point-of-sale systems and online ordering, creates strong network effects and high switching costs for customers. This positions the company well against competitors and enhances customer retention.
Successful Market Expansion
Toast is expanding into new markets, including retail and international segments, with these areas growing faster than its core business. Notable agreements with large chains like Applebee's and Firehouse Subs highlight this successful expansion.
Investment in AI and Automation
The adoption of Toast IQ, an AI assistant, has been implemented in over half of its locations, leading to increased efficiency in automating workflows. This innovation is expected to drive further growth and operational improvements.
Positive Future Growth Outlook
Toast anticipates continued strong growth in 2026, with expectations of 20-22% growth in recurring gross profit and a significant increase in Adjusted EBITDA. The company maintains a long-term margin target of over 40%, indicating strong profitability potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TOST Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$28.31
52W Range Position
16%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$24.35
+16.3% from the low
52-Week High
$49.66
-43.0% from the high
1 Month
+4.77%
3 Month
+2.09%
YTD
-16.8%
1 Year
-19.6%
3Y CAGR
+13.5%
5Y CAGR
-14.7%
10Y CAGR
-7.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TOST vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.8x
vs 19.3x median
+18% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+26.8%
vs +20.9% median
+28% above peer median
Net Margin
5.6%
vs -13.6% median
+141% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TOS TOST Toast, Inc. | $14.8B | 22.8x | +26.8% | 5.6% | Buy | +40.4% |
PAX PAX Patria Investments Limited | $2.1B | 9.0x | +3.8% | — | Buy | +39.3% |
PAR PAR PAR Technology Corporation | $584M | 26.2x | +22.6% | -19.2% | Buy | +80.5% |
RSK RSKD Riskified Ltd. | $812M | 20.5x | +8.8% | -8.0% | Buy | +21.1% |
LSP LSPD Lightspeed Commerce Inc. | $1.3B | 19.3x | +20.9% | -58.0% | Buy | +30.6% |
FOU FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc. | $3.9B | 7.7x | +31.4% | 5.0% | Buy | +71.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TOST Dividend and Capital Return
TOST returns 0.7% annually — null% through dividends and 0.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$107M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
607M
At 0.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsTOST Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Toast, Inc. (TOST) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $40, implying +40.4% from the current price of $28.
02What is the TOST stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TOST is $40 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $51 (+80.1% from today), and the low-end target is $33 (+16.6%). The base case model target is $73.
03Is Toast, Inc. (TOST) stock overvalued in 2026?
TOST trades at 22.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Toast, Inc. (TOST) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TOST in 2026 are: (1) Intense Competition — Toast operates in a highly competitive market with numerous players, including major competitors like Square, NCR Voyix, and Shift4. (2) Restaurant Industry Volatility — Toast's business model is heavily reliant on the restaurant industry, which is sensitive to economic downturns and changing consumer preferences. (3) High Client Turnover — The restaurant industry experiences significant turnover, with a high failure rate for new establishments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Toast, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TOST will report consensus revenue of $7.8B (+26.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.04 (+84.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.0B in revenue.
06When does Toast, Inc. (TOST) report its next earnings?
Toast, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $1.6B. Over recent quarters, TOST has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Toast, Inc. generate?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) generated $608M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.9%. TOST returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($107M TTM).