Upside case
Bull case
$592+112.2%
TYL would need investors to value it at roughly 46x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 37 covering TYL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
12
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$438
+57.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$283 – $592
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.8B
TYL price targets
Three scenarios for where TYL stock could go
Current
~$279
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $279
Bear
$283
Base
$449
Bull
$592
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$449+61.0%
At 35x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$283+1.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TYL down roughly 1% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tyler Technologies, Inc.
TYL · NYSETechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
Tyler Technologies is a software company that provides integrated information management solutions exclusively for the public sector — including government agencies, courts, schools, and utilities. It generates revenue primarily through enterprise software licensing and maintenance fees (roughly 70% of revenue), appraisal and tax software services (about 20%), and digital government services through its NIC segment (around 10%). The company's key competitive advantage is its deep specialization in public sector workflows — creating high switching costs through mission-critical, integrated systems that span entire government operations.
Market Cap
$11.8B
Revenue TTM
$2.4B
Net Income TTM
$316M
Net Margin
13.3%
TYL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.91/$2.77
Revenue
$596M/$588M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.97/$2.86
Revenue
$596M/$594M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.64/$2.71
Revenue
$575M/$591M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.09/$3.01
Revenue
$614M/$609M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.91/$2.77 | +5.1% | $596M/$588M | +1.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.97/$2.86 | +3.8% | $596M/$594M | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.64/$2.71 | -2.6% | $575M/$591M | -2.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.09/$3.01 | +2.7% | $614M/$609M | +0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.6B
+8.3% YoY
FY2
$2.8B
+8.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.82
+34.3% YoY
FY2
$10.82
+10.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$688M
FCF Margin: 28.9%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.23
Expected Revenue
$649M
TYL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TYL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $746M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Maintenance
59.7%
-3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Maintenance is the largest disclosed segment at 59.7% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.8% YoY.
TYL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $210 — implies -24.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
24.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TYL
38.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+58% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TYL
38.7x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+34% premium
vs TYL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
38.7x
vs
5Y Average
98.1x
60% discount
Forward PE
21.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+15%
Technology
22.3x
-3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
38.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+58%
Technology
29.0x
+34%
5Y Avg
98.1x
-60%
PEG Ratio
4.33x
S&P 500
1.66x
+161%
Technology
1.51x
+187%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+49%
Technology
16.6x
+36%
5Y Avg
49.3x
-54%
Price/FCF
18.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-11%
Technology
19.2x
-4%
5Y Avg
48.1x
-62%
Price/Sales
5.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+63%
Technology
2.4x
+107%
5Y Avg
10.2x
-51%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TYL | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TYL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.7x | 18.8x+15% | 22.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 38.7x | 24.4x+58% | 29.0x+34% | 98.1x-60% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.33x | 1.66x+161% | 1.51x+187% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.6x | 15.2x+49% | 16.6x+36% | 49.3x-54% |
| Price/FCF | 18.4x | 20.7x-11% | 19.2x | 48.1x-62% |
| Price/Sales | 5.0x | 3.1x+63% | 2.4x+107% | 10.2x-51% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
TYL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTYL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TYL generates $688M in free cash flow at a 28.9% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.31
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$688M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$339M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
42M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTYL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Risk
The stock's current price is significantly below the consensus target, indicating potential overvaluation concerns.
Medium
Revenue Growth Slowdown
Despite strong quarterly performance, sustaining high SaaS and transaction revenue growth may be challenging.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Analyst price targets suggest upside potential, but market sentiment could shift negatively if growth falters.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TYL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Vertical market software leadership
Tyler Technologies is a leading provider of specialized software for U.S. local governments, offering scale and recurring revenue resilience.
Strong SaaS revenue growth
The company demonstrates robust growth in SaaS revenues, driven by cloud-based subscription adoption.
Public sector acquisitions
Strategic acquisitions in the public sector enhance Tyler Technologies' market position and growth potential.
Recurring revenue resilience
The company's business model emphasizes recurring revenue, providing stability and predictable cash flows.
Free cash flow strength
Tyler Technologies generates robust free cash flow, supporting its financial health and investment capabilities.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TYL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$278.91
52W Range Position
1%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$274.09
+1.8% from the low
52-Week High
$621.34
-55.1% from the high
1 Month
-13.06%
3 Month
-18.91%
YTD
-36.0%
1 Year
-51.0%
3Y CAGR
-10.7%
5Y CAGR
-8.7%
10Y CAGR
+6.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TYL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.7x
vs 15.9x median
+36% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.3%
vs +12.2% median
-32% below peer median
Net Margin
13.3%
vs 5.1% median
+158% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TYL TYL Tyler Technologies, Inc. | $11.8B | 21.7x | +8.3% | 13.3% | Buy | +57.2% |
CSG CSGS CSG Systems International, Inc. | $2.3B | 15.9x | +4.6% | 5.1% | Buy | +0.0% |
NCN NCNO nCino, Inc. | $1.6B | 16.3x | +13.0% | 2.2% | Buy | +85.8% |
ALK ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. | $1.6B | 18.8x | +17.0% | -10.6% | Buy | +49.9% |
PAY PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | $6.8B | 11.5x | +12.2% | 22.4% | Hold | +21.5% |
PCT PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | $5.4B | 12.5x | +11.6% | 14.9% | Buy | +45.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TYL Dividend and Capital Return
TYL does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-43.3%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
42M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $0.01 | -60.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% |
| 1989 | $0.02 | -99.5% | — | — |
| 1988 | $3.45 | +2423.2% | — | — |
| 1987 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
FAQ
7 questionsTYL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $438, implying +57.2% from the current price of $279. The bear case scenario is $283 and the bull case is $592.
02What is the TYL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TYL is $438 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $543 (+94.7% from today), and the low-end target is $340 (+21.9%). The base case model target is $449.
03Is Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) stock overvalued in 2026?
TYL trades at 21.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TYL in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Risk — The stock's current price is significantly below the consensus target, indicating potential overvaluation concerns. (2) Revenue Growth Slowdown — Despite strong quarterly performance, sustaining high SaaS and transaction revenue growth may be challenging. (3) Market Sentiment — Analyst price targets suggest upside potential, but market sentiment could shift negatively if growth falters. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TYL will report consensus revenue of $2.6B (+8.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.82 (+34.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.8B in revenue.
06When does Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) report its next earnings?
Tyler Technologies, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $3.23 and revenue of $649M. Over recent quarters, TYL has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Tyler Technologies, Inc. generate?
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) generated $688M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.9%. TYL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).