Upside case
Bull case
$567+76.9%
TYL would need investors to value it at roughly 45x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 36 covering TYL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
11
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$453
+41.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$237 – $567
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.5B
TYL price targets
Three scenarios for where TYL stock could go
Current
~$321
Confidence
71 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $321
Bear
$237
Base
$492
Bull
$567
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$492+53.4%
At 39x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$237-26.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push TYL down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tyler Technologies, Inc.
TYL · NYSETechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
Tyler Technologies is a software company that provides integrated information management solutions exclusively for the public sector — including government agencies, courts, schools, and utilities. It generates revenue primarily through enterprise software licensing and maintenance fees (roughly 70% of revenue), appraisal and tax software services (about 20%), and digital government services through its NIC segment (around 10%). The company's key competitive advantage is its deep specialization in public sector workflows — creating high switching costs through mission-critical, integrated systems that span entire government operations.
Market Cap
$13.5B
Revenue TTM
$2.4B
Net Income TTM
$316M
Net Margin
13.3%
TYL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.91/$2.77
Revenue
$596M/$588M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.97/$2.86
Revenue
$596M/$594M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.64/$2.71
Revenue
$575M/$591M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.09/$3.01
Revenue
$614M/$609M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.91/$2.77 | +5.1% | $596M/$588M | +1.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.97/$2.86 | +3.8% | $596M/$594M | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.64/$2.71 | -2.6% | $575M/$591M | -2.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.09/$3.01 | +2.7% | $614M/$609M | +0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.6B
+8.7% YoY
FY2
$2.9B
+10.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.30
+40.9% YoY
FY2
$11.05
+7.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$688M
FCF Margin: 28.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TYL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TYL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $746M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Maintenance
59.7%
-3.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Maintenance is the largest disclosed segment at 59.7% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.8% YoY.
TYL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $320 — implies -4.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TYL
44.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+77% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TYL
44.5x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+62% premium
vs TYL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
44.5x
vs
5Y Average
98.1x
55% discount
Forward PE
25.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+33%
Technology
21.7x
+17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
44.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+77%
Technology
27.5x
+62%
5Y Avg
98.1x
-55%
PEG Ratio
4.97x
S&P 500
1.75x
+185%
Technology
1.47x
+239%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+71%
Technology
17.4x
+50%
5Y Avg
49.3x
-47%
Price/FCF
21.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-1%
Technology
19.8x
+7%
5Y Avg
48.1x
-56%
Price/Sales
5.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+85%
Technology
2.4x
+140%
5Y Avg
10.2x
-43%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TYL | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TYL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.4x | 19.1x+33% | 21.7x+17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 44.5x | 25.2x+77% | 27.5x+62% | 98.1x-55% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.97x | 1.75x+185% | 1.47x+239% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.1x | 15.3x+71% | 17.4x+50% | 49.3x-47% |
| Price/FCF | 21.2x | 21.3x | 19.8x | 48.1x-56% |
| Price/Sales | 5.8x | 3.1x+85% | 2.4x+140% | 10.2x-43% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
TYL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTYL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TYL generates $688M in free cash flow at a 28.9% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.31
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$688M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$339M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
42M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTYL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Misses or Guidance Cuts
A significant risk for TYL is the potential for earnings to fall short of expectations or for the company to lower its future financial guidance. This can lead to a negative stock price reaction.
High Risk
Broader Market or Economic Headwinds
Like most companies, TYL is susceptible to broader economic downturns or unfavorable market conditions, which can impact its stock performance. Such headwinds could lead to reduced demand for its services.
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
Some analysts believe TYL is trading at elevated valuation multiples, suggesting it might be overvalued despite recent price declines. This could indicate a risk of further downside if market sentiment shifts.
High Risk
Decelerating Top-Line Growth
There are concerns about decelerating revenue growth, with bookings and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) stagnating. This raises doubts about management's optimistic outlook on demand.
Medium
Increased Competition or Margin Pressure
The company faces competition, which could lead to pressure on its profit margins. Increased competition may result in pricing pressures that could adversely affect profitability.
Medium
Long Sales Cycles and High Average Selling Prices
The nature of TYL's business, serving public sector agencies, involves long sales cycles and high average selling prices. This can make the company sensitive to economic conditions, potentially delaying revenue recognition.
Medium
AI Positioning Uncertainty
There are uncertainties surrounding the company's Artificial Intelligence (AI) strategy and its potential impact on the broader software sector. This uncertainty could affect TYL's competitive positioning and growth prospects.
Lower
Application Security Risks
While Tyler Technologies has a dedicated application security team, the inherent risks in software development mean that security vulnerabilities can still arise. This could lead to reputational damage and potential financial liabilities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TYL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Dominance and Sticky Business Model
Tyler Technologies is a leading provider of software for U.S. state and local governments, characterized by mission-critical workflows and long implementation cycles. This creates a structurally protective environment for incumbents, leading to high customer retention due to the deep integration of its solutions into government operations.
SaaS Transition and Recurring Revenue
The company is successfully transitioning to a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model, with a significant portion of its revenue now coming from recurring subscriptions. This shift is driving strong SaaS bookings and accelerating Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth, establishing a durable, high-retention revenue stream.
Growth in Cloud and AI
Tyler Technologies is benefiting from the broader trend of cloud adoption and is actively integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into its offerings. Recent acquisitions, such as 'For the Record,' are aimed at enhancing its AI capabilities, particularly in the justice vertical, which is expected to drive productivity gains and expand the total addressable market.
Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns
The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with subscription revenue showing strong year-over-year increases. Additionally, Tyler Technologies has authorized significant share buyback programs, signaling management's confidence in the stock's valuation and projecting earnings growth in the coming year.
Analyst Confidence
A large majority of analysts covering TYL have 'Buy' ratings, reflecting strong confidence in the company's growth trajectory. Recent earnings reports have validated this outlook, showcasing accelerating SaaS bookings and robust momentum in the cloud transition.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TYL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$320.61
52W Range Position
11%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$283.72
+13.0% from the low
52-Week High
$621.34
-48.4% from the high
1 Month
-4.92%
3 Month
-7.96%
YTD
-26.4%
1 Year
-42.0%
3Y CAGR
-6.1%
5Y CAGR
-4.5%
10Y CAGR
+8.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TYL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.4x
vs 15.8x median
+60% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.7%
vs +13.2% median
-34% below peer median
Net Margin
13.3%
vs 5.1% median
+158% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TYL TYL Tyler Technologies, Inc. | $13.5B | 25.4x | +8.7% | 13.3% | Buy | +41.4% |
CSG CSGS CSG Systems International, Inc. | $2.3B | 15.8x | +1.9% | 5.1% | Buy | +0.4% |
NCN NCNO nCino, Inc. | $2.1B | 19.3x | +14.1% | -3.7% | Buy | +85.4% |
ALK ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. | $1.8B | 20.8x | +28.7% | -10.6% | Buy | +31.3% |
PAY PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | $6.9B | 12.0x | +13.2% | 22.4% | Hold | +18.2% |
PCT PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | $5.5B | 13.2x | +12.5% | 14.2% | Buy | +63.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TYL Dividend and Capital Return
TYL does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
42M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $0.01 | -60.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% |
| 1989 | $0.02 | -99.5% | — | — |
| 1988 | $3.45 | +2423.2% | — | — |
| 1987 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
FAQ
7 questionsTYL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $453, implying +41.4% from the current price of $321. The bear case scenario is $237 and the bull case is $567.
02What is the TYL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TYL is $453 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $550 (+71.5% from today), and the low-end target is $360 (+12.3%). The base case model target is $492.
03Is Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) stock overvalued in 2026?
TYL trades at 25.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TYL in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Misses or Guidance Cuts — A significant risk for TYL is the potential for earnings to fall short of expectations or for the company to lower its future financial guidance. (2) Broader Market or Economic Headwinds — Like most companies, TYL is susceptible to broader economic downturns or unfavorable market conditions, which can impact its stock performance. (3) Valuation Concerns — Some analysts believe TYL is trading at elevated valuation multiples, suggesting it might be overvalued despite recent price declines. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tyler Technologies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TYL will report consensus revenue of $2.6B (+8.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.30 (+40.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.9B in revenue.
06When does Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TYL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Tyler Technologies, Inc. generate?
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) generated $688M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.9%. TYL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).