Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$5.90
Price Target
$5.40
Target Range
$5.40 — $5.40
Analyst Rating
Buy
Forward P/E2.5x
Trailing P/E13.4x
Forward PEG0.11
Implied Growth+4.6%
Median Target$5.40
Analyst Spread0.0%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$5
-8.5%
Consensus
$5
-8.5%
Bull Case
$5
-8.5%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 51/100
Bear$12
Base$37
Bull$52
UGP Price Target Analysis
Updated May 8, 2026As of May 8, 2026, Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $5.40, based on estimates from 10 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $5.90, this represents a potential downside of -8.5%. The company has a market capitalization of $6.42B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $5.40 to a high of $5.40, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $5.40 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 5 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,4 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, UGP trades at a trailing P/E of 13.4x and forward P/E of 2.5x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.11 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +4.6% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $36.70, with bear and bull scenarios of $12.11 and $52.31 respectively. Model confidence stands at 51/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Energy stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+24.4%
Avg Forward P/E12.0x
Peers with Coverage9 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SBSCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP | $21.8B | $6.37 | $23.79 | +273.5% | Hold | 0.7x | 7 |
 CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais | $6.8B | $2.39 | $2.10 | -12.1% | Buy | 1.9x | 5 |
 VALEVale S.A. | $70.7B | $16.19 | $16.65 | +2.8% | Hold | 8.1x | 37 |
 PBRPetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | $75.9B | $20.39 | $18.67 | -8.4% | Buy | 5.4x | 22 |
 MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $70.7B | $242.27 | $214.78 | -11.3% | Buy | 10.9x | 33 |
 VLOValero Energy Corporation | $70.7B | $236.30 | $214.67 | -9.2% | Buy | 10.0x | 37 |
 PSXPhillips 66 | $67.5B | $168.34 | $163.38 | -2.9% | Buy | 11.4x | 35 |
 DINOHF Sinclair Corporation | $12.7B | $70.50 | $61.57 | -12.7% | Buy | 12.5x | 16 |
 CAPLCrossAmerica Partners LP | $812M | $21.30 | — | — | Hold | 49.5x | 15 |
 SUNSunoco LP | $9.3B | $67.80 | $68.00 | +0.3% | Hold | 9.4x | 24 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonUGP — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying UGP stock.
What is the UGP stock price target for 2026?
Wall Street's consensus price target for UGP is $5.4, -8.5% from its current price of $5.9. The below-market target from 10 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
Is UGP a buy, sell, or hold?
UGP has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 10 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 4 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $5.4 implies -8.5% downside from current levels.
Is UGP stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 2.4953x, UGP trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $5.4 implies -8.5% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can UGP stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $5.4 for UGP, while the most conservative target is $5.4. The consensus of $5.4 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $52 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover UGP stock?
UGP is moderately covered, with 10 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 5 have Buy ratings, 4 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the UGP stock forecast?
The 12-month UGP stock forecast based on 10 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $5.4, with estimates ranging from $5.4 (bear case) to $5.4 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $37, with bear/bull scenarios of $12/$52.
What is UGP's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates UGP's fair value at $37 (base case), with a bear case of $12 and bull case of $52. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 51/100.
What is UGP's forward P/E ratio?
UGP trades at a forward P/E ratio of 2.5x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 13.4x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy UGP stock?
Analysts are cautious on UGP, with 1 Sell ratings and a price target of $5.4 (-8.5% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do UGP price targets vary so much?
UGP analyst price targets range from $5.4 to $5.4, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $5.4 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $12-$52 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.