DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios
Cyclical sector (Energy) — DCF assumes stable cash flows, which don't apply to commodity-driven businesses.
Alternative Approach:
Use EV/EBITDA (mid-cycle) or commodity cycle analysis instead.
Current EV/EBITDA: 2.9x
Insufficient data to compute DCF valuation for UGP. This typically occurs with negative FCF, early-stage companies, or financials where standard DCF models require modification.
Unable to calculate intrinsic value. DCF requires positive free cash flow and complete financial data. For banks/REITs, we substitute Net Income or FFO respectively.
Standard two-stage DCF with 5-year explicit forecast period and Gordon Growth terminal value. WACC estimated from sector averages and company beta. For UGP, insufficient data prevents full calculation—typically requires 3+ years of positive FCF history.