MPC trades 0.2% above Wall Street's consensus target of $388.89.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes MPC achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 7.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 33 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 23, 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $388.89, based on estimates from 33 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $389.68, this represents a potential downside of -0.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $113.76B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $304.00 to a high of $462.00, representing a 41% spread in expectations. The median target of $400.00 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 26 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,7 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, MPC trades at a trailing P/E of 29.4x and forward P/E of 7.0x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +89.1% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $502.85, with bear and bull scenarios of $316.79 and $662.55 respectively. Model confidence stands at 51/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VLOValero Energy Corporation | $112.0B | $377.14 | $366.80 | -2.7% | Buy | 8.0x | 37 |
 PSXPhillips 66 | $103.0B | $256.78 | $266.30 | +3.7% | Buy | 9.2x | 35 |
 PBFPBF Energy Inc. | $8.5B | $71.44 | $76.50 | +7.1% | Hold | 3.6x | 26 |
 DKDelek US Holdings, Inc. | $4.5B | $73.34 | $77.14 | +5.2% | Hold | 4.8x | 26 |
 MPLXMPLX Lp | $60.0B | $59.16 | $63.80 | +7.8% | Buy | 13.8x | 28 |
 ETEnergy Transfer LP | $70.2B | $20.40 | $23.00 | +12.7% | Buy | 12.0x | 34 |
 PAAPlains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $17.3B | $24.55 | $25.29 | +3.0% | Buy | 15.8x | 42 |
 TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | $60.6B | $282.15 | $315.15 | +11.7% | Buy | 25.0x | 34 |
 WESWestern Midstream Partners, LP | $19.0B | $46.06 | $49.71 | +7.9% | Hold | 12.4x | 13 |
 CVXChevron Corporation | $403.2B | $202.43 | $216.92 | +7.2% | Buy | 12.5x | 53 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MPC stock.
Wall Street's consensus price target for MPC is $388.89, -0.2% from its current price of $389.68. The below-market target from 33 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
MPC has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 33 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 26 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $388.89 implies -0.2% downside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 7.0086x, MPC trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $388.89 implies -0.2% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $462 for MPC, while the most conservative target is $304. The consensus of $388.89 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $663 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
MPC is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 33 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 26 have Buy ratings, 7 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month MPC stock forecast based on 33 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $388.89, with estimates ranging from $304 (bear case) to $462 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $503, with bear/bull scenarios of $317/$663.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MPC's fair value at $503 (base case), with a bear case of $317 and bull case of $663. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 51/100.
MPC trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 29.4x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on MPC, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $388.89 (-0.2% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
MPC analyst price targets range from $304 to $462, a 41% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $388.89 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $317-$663 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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