Upside case
Bull case
$166+942.0%
VIV would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 27x more generous than today's 3x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Telefônica Brasil S.A. (VIV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
12
analysts
4 bullish · 3 bearish · 12 covering VIV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
5
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$17
+3.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$74 – $166
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $25.5B
VIV price targets
Three scenarios for where VIV stock could go
Current
~$16
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $16
Bear
$74
Base
$109
Bull
$166
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$109+584.7%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$74+366.0%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push VIV down roughly 366% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Telefônica Brasil S.A.
VIV · NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesDecember year-end
Telefônica Brasil is a major telecommunications provider offering mobile and fixed-line services across Brazil. It generates revenue primarily from mobile services — including voice, data, and broadband — and fixed-line services like broadband internet and pay TV, with mobile typically contributing the largest share. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive nationwide network infrastructure and strong brand recognition as part of the global Telefónica group.
Market Cap
$25.5B
Revenue TTM
$59.8B
Net Income TTM
$6.2B
Net Margin
10.4%
VIV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.11/$0.12
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.15/$0.16
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.19
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.22/$0.17
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.11/$0.12 | -8.3% | $2.5B/$2.5B | -2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.15/$0.16 | -6.3% | $2.7B/$2.7B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.22/$0.19 | +15.8% | $2.8B/$2.9B | -2.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.22/$0.17 | +29.4% | $3.0B/$2.9B | +3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$63.8B
+6.7% YoY
FY2
$68.2B
+6.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.25
+9.7% YoY
FY2
$4.69
+10.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$11.3B
FCF Margin: 18.9%
Next Earnings
May 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.17
Expected Revenue
$3.0B
VIV beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
VIV Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $82.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Services
90.0%
+7.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Services is the largest disclosed segment at 90.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.5% YoY.
VIV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $45 — implies +186.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
186.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VIV
23.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
8% discount
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
VIV
23.3x
vs
Communication Services
15.2x
+53% premium
vs VIV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.3x
vs
5Y Average
2.8x
+718% premium
Forward PE
2.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-85%
Communication Services
13.1x
-78%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-8%
Communication Services
15.2x
+53%
5Y Avg
2.8x
+718%
PEG Ratio
8.65x
S&P 500
1.74x
+397%
Communication Services
0.71x
+1121%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-60%
Communication Services
8.7x
-30%
5Y Avg
1.4x
+352%
Price/FCF
11.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-44%
Communication Services
11.6x
+3%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+713%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Communication Services
1.0x
+115%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+652%
Dividend Yield
1.96%
S&P 500
1.87%
+5%
Communication Services
3.38%
-42%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | VIV | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg VIV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.9x | 19.1x-85% | 13.1x-78% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.3x | 25.2x | 15.2x+53% | 2.8x+718% |
| PEG Ratio | 8.65x | 1.74x+397% | 0.71x+1121% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1x | 15.2x-60% | 8.7x-30% | 1.4x+352% |
| Price/FCF | 11.9x | 21.3x-44% | 11.6x | 1.5x+713% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-28% | 1.0x+115% | 0.3x+652% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.96% | 1.87% | 3.38% | — |
VIV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVIV Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
VIV earns 15.8% operating margin on regulated earnings, 2.0% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$59.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.88
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
15.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.2× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.2%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.54
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
45.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageVIV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Cybersecurity and Data Breaches
Vivint's services and information systems are vulnerable to breaches from third-party actions and employee errors. The company has already faced unauthorized access incidents, which could lead to significant financial and reputational damage.
High Risk
Regulatory and Legal Risks
Vivint is exposed to risks related to privacy and data protection laws, which could result in litigation and product liability claims. Non-compliance with these regulations may lead to substantial fines and operational disruptions.
High Risk
Market Downturns
Telefonica Brasil is susceptible to market downturns that can adversely affect its stock performance. Economic fluctuations can lead to decreased consumer spending on telecommunications services, impacting revenue.
Medium
Competition
Both Vivint and Telefonica Brasil operate in highly competitive markets. Increased promotional activity and pricing pressures from competitors could erode market share and profitability.
Medium
Economic Factors
Broader economic conditions in Brazil and globally can impact consumer spending on telecommunication services for Telefonica Brasil. Economic downturns may lead to reduced demand and revenue.
Medium
Interest Rate Fluctuations
Vivint is exposed to variable interest rates on its credit facilities, which can increase borrowing costs. Similarly, changes in interest rates can affect Telefonica Brasil's cost of capital.
Lower
Technological Advancements
The rapid pace of technological change in the telecommunications industry requires continuous investment and adaptation for Telefonica Brasil. Failure to keep up with technological advancements could hinder competitive positioning.
Lower
Employee Attraction and Retention
Labor shortages may impact Vivint's ability to attract and retain skilled employees. This could affect operational efficiency and service delivery.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VIV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership
Telefônica Brasil (Vivo) is the largest telecom operator in Brazil, holding a significant market share in both wireless and fixed-line services. This scale provides cost advantages and a strong competitive position.
Revenue Growth
The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with recent reports showing increases driven by both mobile and fixed segments. This growth is outpacing inflation in Brazil.
Profitability and Efficiency
Telefônica Brasil exhibits healthy profitability, with expanding EBITDA and net profit margins. The company is also focused on efficient cost management and has a strong return on equity.
Strong Cash Flow
VIV is characterized by reliable operating cash flow and strong free cash flow (FCF) generation, which comfortably funds capital expenditures and shareholder distributions. This results in a healthy FCF yield.
Shareholder Returns
While dividend per share has fluctuated, the company has a commitment to shareholder remuneration, including dividends, buybacks, and capital reductions. The FCF yield suggests room for further returns.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds
The current economic environment in Brazil, with inflation within target and a strong credit market, provides a favorable backdrop for companies with low leverage and high FCF yield like VIV.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VIV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$15.93
52W Range Position
83%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$9.41
+69.3% from the low
52-Week High
$17.25
-7.7% from the high
1 Month
+0.44%
3 Month
+6.77%
YTD
+32.0%
1 Year
+62.1%
3Y CAGR
+24.9%
5Y CAGR
+13.9%
10Y CAGR
+2.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VIV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.9x
vs 9.6x median
-70% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.7%
vs +2.4% median
+182% above peer median
Net Margin
10.4%
vs 8.8% median
+18% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VIV VIV Telefônica Brasil S.A. | $25.5B | 2.9x | +6.7% | 10.4% | Hold | +3.6% |
TEF TEF Telefónica, S.A. | $24.4B | 12.5x | -0.2% | -5.5% | Buy | — |
AMX AMX América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V. | $81.5B | 0.8x | +2.4% | 8.8% | Buy | -1.3% |
TKC TKC Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. | $5.7B | 0.2x | +14.2% | 7.4% | Buy | — |
T T AT&T Inc. | $178.4B | 11.1x | +1.4% | 16.9% | Hold | +15.1% |
VZ VZ Verizon Communications Inc. | $200.1B | 9.6x | +2.6% | 12.4% | Hold | +8.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VIV Dividend and Capital Return
VIV returns 4.2% annually — 1.96% through dividends and 2.2% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
1.96%
Payout Ratio
45.6%
How VIV Splits Its Return
Div 1.96%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 1.96%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.54
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
54.3%
5Y Div CAGR
-14.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
11 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
173M
Approx. Share Reduction
10.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.6B
At 10.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.51 | +23.9% | — | — |
| 2024 | $0.42 | -27.3% | 22.3% | 42.7% |
| 2023 | $0.57 | +307.7% | 2.7% | 23.8% |
| 2022 | $0.14 | -77.0% | 5.1% | 52.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsVIV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Telefônica Brasil S.A. (VIV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Telefônica Brasil S.A. (VIV) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $17, implying +3.6% from the current price of $16. The bear case scenario is $74 and the bull case is $166.
02What is the VIV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VIV is $17 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $17 (+3.6% from today), and the low-end target is $17 (+3.6%). The base case model target is $109.
03Is Telefônica Brasil S.A. (VIV) stock overvalued in 2026?
VIV trades at 2.9x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Telefônica Brasil S.A. (VIV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VIV in 2026 are: (1) Cybersecurity and Data Breaches — Vivint's services and information systems are vulnerable to breaches from third-party actions and employee errors. (2) Regulatory and Legal Risks — Vivint is exposed to risks related to privacy and data protection laws, which could result in litigation and product liability claims. (3) Market Downturns — Telefonica Brasil is susceptible to market downturns that can adversely affect its stock performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Telefônica Brasil S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VIV will report consensus revenue of $63.8B (+6.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.25 (+9.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $68.2B in revenue.
06When does Telefônica Brasil S.A. (VIV) report its next earnings?
Telefônica Brasil S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-11. Consensus expects EPS of $0.17 and revenue of $3.0B. Over recent quarters, VIV has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Telefônica Brasil S.A. generate?
Telefônica Brasil S.A. (VIV) generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.9%. VIV returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($2.8B TTM).