Upside case
Bull case
$417+42.9%
VMC would need investors to value it at roughly 45x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 32x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 36 covering VMC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$327
+12.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$196 – $417
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
31.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $37.8B
VMC price targets
Three scenarios for where VMC stock could go
Current
~$292
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $292
Bear
$196
Base
$364
Bull
$417
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$364+25.0%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$196-32.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push VMC down roughly 33% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Vulcan Materials Company
VMC · NYSEBasic MaterialsConstruction MaterialsDecember year-end
Vulcan Materials is a leading producer of construction aggregates — primarily crushed stone, sand, and gravel — used in infrastructure projects across the United States. It generates revenue through four main segments: Aggregates (~70% of revenue), Asphalt, Concrete, and Calcium products, with aggregates being the dominant profit driver. The company's key advantage lies in its strategically located quarries and reserves near high-growth urban markets — a durable moat created by zoning restrictions and the high cost of transporting heavy materials.
Market Cap
$37.8B
Revenue TTM
$8.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
13.9%
VMC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.45/$2.53
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.84/$2.73
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.70/$2.11
Revenue
$1.9B/$2.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.35/$1.10
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.45/$2.53 | -3.2% | $2.1B/$2.2B | -4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.84/$2.73 | +4.0% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.70/$2.11 | -19.4% | $1.9B/$2.0B | -2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.35/$1.10 | +22.7% | $1.8B/$1.6B | +7.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.5B
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$9.0B
+6.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.26
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$10.15
+9.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 13.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
VMC beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
VMC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Aggregates
74.6%
+5.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Gulf Coast
43.7%
+4.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Aggregates is the largest disclosed segment at 74.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.8% YoY.
Gulf Coast is the largest reported region at 43.7%, up 4.5% YoY.
VMC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $242 — implies -18.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
18.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VMC
35.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+43% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
VMC
35.9x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
+61% premium
vs VMC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.9x
vs
5Y Average
37.4x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
31.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+66%
Basic Materials
15.2x
+108%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+43%
Basic Materials
22.3x
+61%
5Y Avg
37.4x
-4%
PEG Ratio
2.74x
S&P 500
1.72x
+60%
Basic Materials
1.17x
+134%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+21%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+68%
5Y Avg
19.0x
-3%
Price/FCF
33.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+58%
Basic Materials
25.6x
+30%
5Y Avg
42.9x
-22%
Price/Sales
4.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+53%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+152%
5Y Avg
4.3x
+11%
Dividend Yield
0.68%
S&P 500
1.87%
-64%
Basic Materials
1.32%
-49%
5Y Avg
0.75%
-11%
| Metric | VMC | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg VMC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 31.7x | 19.1x+66% | 15.2x+108% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.9x | 25.1x+43% | 22.3x+61% | 37.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.74x | 1.72x+60% | 1.17x+134% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.5x | 15.2x+21% | 11.0x+68% | 19.0x |
| Price/FCF | 33.3x | 21.1x+58% | 25.6x+30% | 42.9x-22% |
| Price/Sales | 4.8x | 3.1x+53% | 1.9x+152% | 4.3x+11% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.68% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 0.75% |
VMC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVMC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
VMC generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 13.9% margin — returns 1.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$183M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.7× FCF
~4.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$438M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.97
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
130M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVMC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Construction Cycle Exposure
VMC's revenue is tightly linked to the construction industry's economic cycles, interest rates, demographic shifts, and financial conditions. A downturn in construction activity can sharply reduce sales and earnings, especially in its key U.S. markets. This cyclical sensitivity is a primary driver of revenue volatility.
High Risk
Public Construction Spending Risk
Fluctuations in federal and state infrastructure budgets, driven by political partisanship and trends toward reduced government spending, pose a fundamental threat to VMC's profitability. Declines in public construction projects can cut demand for aggregates, directly impacting revenue and margins.
Medium
International Operations Disruption
VMC has experienced halted production in Mexico and Honduras due to political and economic factors. These disruptions expose the company to operational and supply‑chain risks outside its core U.S. operations, potentially affecting overall production capacity and earnings.
Medium
Regulatory & Environmental Compliance
The company faces increasing regulatory scrutiny on climate change, land use, and environmental impact. Compliance costs and potential restrictions could raise operating expenses and limit expansion opportunities, affecting profitability.
Medium
Financial Leverage Risk
VMC maintains a notable debt‑to‑equity ratio, with total debt substantially exceeding cash reserves. High leverage increases interest expense and financial risk, especially if cash flows are pressured by cyclical downturns.
Lower
Demand & Volume Growth Concerns
While VMC has pricing power, analysts note softness in tons shipped and slim projected revenue growth. Limited volume growth could constrain top‑line expansion and erode margins over time.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VMC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Infrastructure Spending Boosts Demand
Vulcan Materials is positioned to benefit from significant federal and state infrastructure spending, especially in public construction projects such as highways. This sector represents a substantial portion of its business and offers more stable demand, providing a solid foundation for growth.
Pricing Power Drives Margin Expansion
The company has shown the ability to increase freight‑adjusted prices by 10.8% in 2024 even as aggregate shipments fell 6%. This pricing discipline, combined with operational efficiencies and technology upgrades, is expected to drive margin expansion and improved profitability.
Market Leadership & Vast Reserves
As the largest producer of construction aggregates in the U.S., Vulcan Materials holds a strong market position. Its extensive reserves, estimated at nearly 16 billion tons, provide a long runway for sustained growth and support continued price increases.
Sun Belt Growth & Data Centers
Population growth in the Sun Belt and the construction of data centers are identified as additional long‑term supports for aggregate demand, adding new demand drivers beyond traditional infrastructure projects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VMC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$291.51
52W Range Position
50%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$252.35
+15.5% from the low
52-Week High
$331.09
-12.0% from the high
1 Month
+3.51%
3 Month
-6.19%
YTD
-0.4%
1 Year
+8.0%
3Y CAGR
+14.6%
5Y CAGR
+9.0%
10Y CAGR
+9.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VMC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
31.7x
vs 19.6x median
+62% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.0%
vs +2.6% median
+92% above peer median
Net Margin
13.9%
vs 19.4% median
-29% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VMC VMC Vulcan Materials Company | $37.8B | 31.7x | +5.0% | 13.9% | Buy | +12.2% |
MLM MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $36.6B | 31.0x | +4.8% | 38.7% | Buy | +14.7% |
CRH CRH CRH plc | $75.2B | 18.9x | -1.8% | 9.2% | Buy | +20.5% |
USL USLM United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | $3.1B | 19.6x | +18.5% | 35.4% | Buy | +29.6% |
MDU MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | $4.9B | 22.9x | -8.6% | 9.0% | Buy | -6.5% |
EXP EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $6.8B | 16.2x | +2.6% | 19.4% | Buy | +6.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VMC Dividend and Capital Return
VMC returns capital mainly through $438M/year in buybacks (1.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.68% dividend — combining for 1.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
0.68%
Payout Ratio
24.0%
How VMC Splits Its Return
Div 0.68%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 0.68%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.97
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.0%
5Y Div CAGR
7.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$438M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
130M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.96 | +6.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $1.84 | +7.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| 2023 | $1.72 | +7.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $1.60 | +8.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsVMC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $327, implying +12.2% from the current price of $292. The bear case scenario is $196 and the bull case is $417.
02What is the VMC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VMC is $327 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $360 (+23.5% from today), and the low-end target is $298 (+2.2%). The base case model target is $364.
03Is Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) stock overvalued in 2026?
VMC trades at 31.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VMC in 2026 are: (1) Construction Cycle Exposure — VMC's revenue is tightly linked to the construction industry's economic cycles, interest rates, demographic shifts, and financial conditions. (2) Public Construction Spending Risk — Fluctuations in federal and state infrastructure budgets, driven by political partisanship and trends toward reduced government spending, pose a fundamental threat to VMC's profitability. (3) International Operations Disruption — VMC has experienced halted production in Mexico and Honduras due to political and economic factors. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Vulcan Materials Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VMC will report consensus revenue of $8.5B (+5.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.26 (+9.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.0B in revenue.
06When does Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for VMC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Vulcan Materials Company generate?
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.9%. VMC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($438M TTM).