Upside case
Bull case
$226-25.5%
The bull case prices VMC at 24x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 36 covering VMC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$323
+6.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$108 – $226
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
32.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $39.3B
VMC price targets
Three scenarios for where VMC stock could go
Current
~$303
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $303
Bear
$108
Base
$171
Bull
$226
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$171-43.4%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$108-64.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 21x multiple contraction could push VMC down roughly 64% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Vulcan Materials Company
VMC · NYSEBasic MaterialsConstruction MaterialsDecember year-end
Vulcan Materials is a leading producer of construction aggregates — primarily crushed stone, sand, and gravel — used in infrastructure projects across the United States. It generates revenue through four main segments: Aggregates (~70% of revenue), Asphalt, Concrete, and Calcium products, with aggregates being the dominant profit driver. The company's key advantage lies in its strategically located quarries and reserves near high-growth urban markets — a durable moat created by zoning restrictions and the high cost of transporting heavy materials.
Market Cap
$39.3B
Revenue TTM
$8.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
13.9%
VMC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.45/$2.53
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.84/$2.73
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.70/$2.11
Revenue
$1.9B/$2.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.35/$1.10
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.45/$2.53 | -3.2% | $2.1B/$2.2B | -4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.84/$2.73 | +4.0% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.70/$2.11 | -19.4% | $1.9B/$2.0B | -2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.35/$1.10 | +22.7% | $1.8B/$1.6B | +7.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.3B
+3.7% YoY
FY2
$8.7B
+4.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.79
+3.7% YoY
FY2
$9.52
+8.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 13.9%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.65
Expected Revenue
$2.1B
VMC beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
VMC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Aggregates
74.6%
+5.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Gulf Coast
43.7%
+4.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Aggregates is the largest disclosed segment at 74.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.8% YoY.
Gulf Coast is the largest reported region at 43.7%, up 4.5% YoY.
VMC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $230 — implies -24.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
24.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VMC
37.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+53% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
VMC
37.3x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+58% premium
vs VMC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.3x
vs
5Y Average
37.4x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
32.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
+75%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+121%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+53%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+58%
5Y Avg
37.4x
-0%
PEG Ratio
2.85x
S&P 500
1.66x
+72%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+132%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+26%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+74%
5Y Avg
19.0x
+0%
Price/FCF
34.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+67%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+19%
5Y Avg
42.9x
-19%
Price/Sales
5.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+60%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+163%
5Y Avg
4.3x
+15%
Dividend Yield
0.65%
S&P 500
1.91%
-66%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-54%
5Y Avg
0.75%
-14%
| Metric | VMC | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg VMC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 32.8x | 18.8x+75% | 14.9x+121% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.3x | 24.4x+53% | 23.6x+58% | 37.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.85x | 1.66x+72% | 1.23x+132% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.1x | 15.2x+26% | 11.0x+74% | 19.0x |
| Price/FCF | 34.6x | 20.7x+67% | 29.0x+19% | 42.9x-19% |
| Price/Sales | 5.0x | 3.1x+60% | 1.9x+163% | 4.3x+15% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.65% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 0.75% |
VMC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVMC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
VMC generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 13.9% margin — returns 1.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$183M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.7× FCF
~4.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$438M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.97
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
130M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVMC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings decline
Vulcan Materials faces declining EPS estimates and a 20% Q4 earnings miss, driven by weak construction demand and compressed margins.
High Risk
Input cost pressure
Rising input costs are compressing margins, further straining profitability amid already weak demand.
Medium
Construction slowdown
Aggregate production fell for six consecutive quarters due to weather disruptions and a broad construction slowdown across all sectors.
Medium
Valuation premium
The stock trades at a 29X forward P/E, a 30% premium, which may not be sustainable given earnings headwinds.
Lower
Strategic pivot risks
The company's shift toward aggregates profitability, including divestitures, may not fully offset downstream margin fluctuations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VMC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Leading aggregates supplier
Vulcan is the top supplier of aggregates in the U.S., with high-quality reserves in key growth markets.
Infrastructure demand tailwinds
Strong demand for construction materials supports Vulcan's growth, driven by infrastructure projects like highways and data centers.
Pricing power and margins
The company benefits from pricing power and operational efficiencies, enhancing profitability and cash gross profit per ton.
Strong financial performance
Vulcan posted $7.94 billion in revenue for 2025 and delivered a Q1 2026 earnings beat, signaling robust financial health.
Long-term EBITDA targets
Management aims for EBITDA between $4.50 billion and $5.00 billion, supported by strategic initiatives and innovation.
Growth in high-demand markets
Vulcan's footprint in high-growth markets positions it to capitalize on increasing demand for construction materials.
Investor confidence
Strong 2025 results and optimistic 2026 guidance bolster investor confidence in Vulcan's future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VMC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$302.84
52W Range Position
64%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$252.35
+20.0% from the low
52-Week High
$331.09
-8.5% from the high
1 Month
+13.71%
3 Month
+17.44%
YTD
+3.5%
1 Year
+17.3%
3Y CAGR
+13.2%
5Y CAGR
+12.8%
10Y CAGR
+10.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VMC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
32.8x
vs 21.9x median
+50% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.7%
vs +3.7% median
-0% below peer median
Net Margin
13.9%
vs 18.4% median
-24% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VMC VMC Vulcan Materials Company | $39.3B | 32.8x | +3.7% | 13.9% | Buy | +6.5% |
MLM MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $36.7B | 31.9x | +6.2% | 38.7% | Buy | +12.4% |
CRH CRH CRH plc | $74.3B | 18.7x | -0.7% | 9.2% | Buy | +21.1% |
USL USLM United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | $3.3B | 22.1x | +11.6% | 35.4% | Buy | +21.5% |
MDU MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | $4.4B | 21.9x | +2.8% | 10.5% | Buy | -1.4% |
EXP EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $7.0B | 17.4x | +3.7% | 18.4% | Buy | -2.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VMC Dividend and Capital Return
VMC returns capital mainly through $438M/year in buybacks (1.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.65% dividend — combining for 1.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
0.65%
Payout Ratio
24.0%
How VMC Splits Its Return
Div 0.65%
Buyback 1.1%
Dividend 0.65%Buybacks 1.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.97
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.0%
5Y Div CAGR
7.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$438M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
130M
At 1.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.96 | +6.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $1.84 | +7.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| 2023 | $1.72 | +7.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $1.60 | +8.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsVMC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $323, implying +6.5% from the current price of $303. The bear case scenario is $108 and the bull case is $226.
02What is the VMC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VMC is $323 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $360 (+18.9% from today), and the low-end target is $283 (-6.6%). The base case model target is $171.
03Is Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) stock overvalued in 2026?
VMC trades at 32.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VMC in 2026 are: (1) Earnings decline — Vulcan Materials faces declining EPS estimates and a 20% Q4 earnings miss, driven by weak construction demand and compressed margins. (2) Input cost pressure — Rising input costs are compressing margins, further straining profitability amid already weak demand. (3) Construction slowdown — Aggregate production fell for six consecutive quarters due to weather disruptions and a broad construction slowdown across all sectors. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Vulcan Materials Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VMC will report consensus revenue of $8.3B (+3.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.79 (+3.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.7B in revenue.
06When does Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) report its next earnings?
Vulcan Materials Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $2.65 and revenue of $2.1B. Over recent quarters, VMC has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Vulcan Materials Company generate?
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.9%. VMC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($438M TTM).