Upside case
Bull case
$740+21.5%
MLM would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 32x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
40
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 40 covering MLM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
17
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$685
+12.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$354 – $740
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
40
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
31.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $36.7B
MLM price targets
Three scenarios for where MLM stock could go
Current
~$609
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $609
Bear
$354
Base
$562
Bull
$740
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$562-7.8%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MLM — at roughly 29x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$354-41.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 13x multiple contraction could push MLM down roughly 42% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
MLM · NYSEBasic MaterialsConstruction MaterialsDecember year-end
Martin Marietta Materials is a leading supplier of construction aggregates and heavy building materials across the United States. The company generates revenue primarily from aggregates sales — crushed stone, sand, and gravel — which typically contribute around 70% of total revenue, supplemented by cement, ready-mix concrete, and asphalt operations. Its competitive advantage stems from strategic ownership of quarries and reserves in high-growth regions, creating significant barriers to entry through location-based monopolies and high transportation costs that protect local markets.
Market Cap
$36.7B
Revenue TTM
$6.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
38.7%
MLM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.43/$5.31
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.97/$6.72
Revenue
$1.8B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.85/$4.78
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.93/$1.78
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.43/$5.31 | +2.3% | $1.8B/$1.9B | -3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.97/$6.72 | -11.2% | $1.8B/$2.1B | -10.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.85/$4.78 | -19.5% | $1.5B/$1.6B | -7.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.93/$1.78 | +8.4% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.0B
+6.2% YoY
FY2
$7.5B
+7.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$30.70
-26.8% YoY
FY2
$31.20
+1.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 15.8%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.00
Expected Revenue
$1.9B
MLM beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MLM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Building Materials Business
100.0%
-8.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Southeast Group
55.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Building Materials Business is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 8.2% YoY.
Southeast Group is the largest reported region at 55.9%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MLM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $595 — implies -2.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
2.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MLM
32.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+33% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
MLM
32.4x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+37% premium
vs MLM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.4x
vs
5Y Average
27.8x
+16% premium
Forward PE
31.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+69%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+114%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+33%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+37%
5Y Avg
27.8x
+16%
PEG Ratio
3.16x
S&P 500
1.66x
+90%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+157%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+28%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+77%
5Y Avg
17.2x
+13%
Price/FCF
37.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+82%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+30%
5Y Avg
41.3x
-9%
Price/Sales
5.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+82%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+198%
5Y Avg
4.7x
+18%
Dividend Yield
0.53%
S&P 500
1.91%
-72%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-62%
5Y Avg
0.59%
-10%
| Metric | MLM | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg MLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 31.9x | 18.8x+69% | 14.9x+114% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.4x | 24.4x+33% | 23.6x+37% | 27.8x+16% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.16x | 1.66x+90% | 1.23x+157% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.5x | 15.2x+28% | 11.0x+77% | 17.2x+13% |
| Price/FCF | 37.6x | 20.7x+82% | 29.0x+30% | 41.3x |
| Price/Sales | 5.6x | 3.1x+82% | 1.9x+198% | 4.7x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.53% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 0.59% |
MLM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMLM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MLM generates $1.0B in free cash flow at a 15.8% margin — returns 1.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
38.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$41.95
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$67M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.1× FCF
~5.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
25.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (7.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$450M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.26
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
17.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
60M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMLM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Miss
Q4 2025 earnings fell short of expectations, leading to a stock decline.
High Risk
Weak Guidance
2026 guidance trails consensus estimates, signaling potential underperformance.
Medium
Construction Demand Weakness
Persistent weakness in construction demand impacts revenue growth.
Medium
Momentum Fade
Stock faces downside risk due to fading investor momentum.
Lower
Risk Factor Volume
Disclosure of 31 risk factors highlights operational and financial challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MLM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong revenue growth
Martin Marietta Materials reported rising sales to US$1,534 million for the quarter and US$6.15 billion for the year, indicating robust business performance.
Long-term demand visibility
The company's positioning supports visibility into long-term demand for aggregates and related materials, ensuring sustained revenue and earnings growth.
Structural advantages
Martin Marietta benefits from structural advantages that underscore its quality and earnings durability, despite short-term market volatility.
Industry leadership
As a supplier of aggregates and heavy-side building materials, Martin Marietta holds a key position in the construction industry both domestically and internationally.
Bullish investor sentiment
A bullish thesis highlights Martin Marietta's potential, with analysts noting its trailing and forward P/E ratios as indicators of investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MLM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$609.12
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$525.83
+15.8% from the low
52-Week High
$710.97
-14.3% from the high
1 Month
+9.60%
3 Month
+7.25%
YTD
-4.0%
1 Year
+13.1%
3Y CAGR
+12.3%
5Y CAGR
+12.7%
10Y CAGR
+12.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MLM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
31.9x
vs 21.9x median
+46% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.2%
vs +3.7% median
+70% above peer median
Net Margin
38.7%
vs 13.9% median
+179% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MLM MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $36.7B | 31.9x | +6.2% | 38.7% | Buy | +12.4% |
VMC VMC Vulcan Materials Company | $39.3B | 32.8x | +3.7% | 13.9% | Buy | +6.5% |
USL USLM United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | $3.3B | 22.1x | +11.6% | 35.4% | Buy | +21.5% |
MDU MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | $4.4B | 21.9x | +2.8% | 10.5% | Buy | -1.4% |
CRH CRH CRH plc | $74.3B | 18.7x | -0.7% | 9.2% | Buy | +21.1% |
EXP EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $7.0B | 17.4x | +3.7% | 18.4% | Buy | -2.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MLM Dividend and Capital Return
MLM returns capital mainly through $450M/year in buybacks (1.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.53% dividend — combining for 1.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
0.53%
Payout Ratio
17.3%
How MLM Splits Its Return
Div 0.53%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 0.53%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.26
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.5%
5Y Div CAGR
7.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$450M
Estimated Shares Retired
738.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
60M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.66 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.24 | +5.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% |
| 2024 | $3.06 | +9.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $2.80 | +10.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| 2022 | $2.54 | +7.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsMLM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 40 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $685, implying +12.4% from the current price of $609. The bear case scenario is $354 and the bull case is $740.
02What is the MLM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MLM is $685 based on 40 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $785 (+28.9% from today), and the low-end target is $556 (-8.7%). The base case model target is $562.
03Is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) stock overvalued in 2026?
MLM trades at 31.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MLM in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Miss — Q4 2025 earnings fell short of expectations, leading to a stock decline. (2) Weak Guidance — 2026 guidance trails consensus estimates, signaling potential underperformance. (3) Construction Demand Weakness — Persistent weakness in construction demand impacts revenue growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MLM will report consensus revenue of $7.0B (+6.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $30.70 (-26.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.5B in revenue.
06When does Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) report its next earnings?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $5.00 and revenue of $1.9B. Over recent quarters, MLM has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. generate?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.8%. MLM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($450M TTM).