Upside case
Bull case
$17-80.6%
The bull case prices VTR at 23x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ventas, Inc. (VTR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
19 bullish · 2 bearish · 32 covering VTR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
11
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$91
+4.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$5 – $17
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
118.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $41.3B
VTR price targets
Three scenarios for where VTR stock could go
Current
~$87
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $87
Bear
$5
Base
$54
Bull
$17
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$54-37.3%
At 74x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$5-94.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 111x multiple contraction could push VTR down roughly 94% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ventas, Inc.
VTR · NYSEReal EstateREIT - Healthcare FacilitiesDecember year-end
Ventas is a healthcare-focused real estate investment trust that owns and operates senior housing communities, medical office buildings, and life science research facilities. It generates revenue primarily through rental income from its diversified portfolio — roughly 60% from senior housing, 25% from medical office buildings, and 15% from life science and hospital properties. The company's competitive advantage lies in its scale, diversified healthcare property portfolio, and long-term relationships with leading healthcare operators across multiple care settings.
Market Cap
$41.3B
Revenue TTM
$6.1B
Net Income TTM
$260M
Net Margin
4.2%
VTR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+350.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.87/$0.85
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.88/$0.87
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.15/$0.10
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.11/$0.12
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.87/$0.85 | +2.4% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.88/$0.87 | +1.1% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.15/$0.10 | +49.0% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.11/$0.12 | -10.5% | $1.7B/$1.6B | +4.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.0B
+13.6% YoY
FY2
$7.9B
+14.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.60
+12.5% YoY
FY2
$0.68
+13.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.4B
FCF Margin: 22.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
VTR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
VTR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Senior Living Operations
74.0%
+26.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
89.3%
+19.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Senior Living Operations is the largest disclosed segment at 74.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 26.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 89.3%, up 19.3% YoY.
VTR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $59 — implies -33.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VTR
160.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+540% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
VTR
160.7x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+566% premium
vs VTR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
160.7x
vs
5Y Average
143.3x
+12% premium
Forward PE
118.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+520%
Real Estate
26.4x
+349%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
160.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+540%
Real Estate
24.1x
+566%
5Y Avg
143.3x
+12%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Real Estate
1.25x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+60%
Real Estate
16.7x
+46%
5Y Avg
19.2x
+27%
Price/FCF
31.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+49%
Real Estate
15.4x
+103%
5Y Avg
22.6x
+38%
Price/Sales
7.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+126%
Real Estate
3.0x
+138%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+42%
Dividend Yield
2.14%
S&P 500
1.87%
+15%
Real Estate
4.66%
-54%
5Y Avg
3.35%
-36%
| Metric | VTR | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg VTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 118.3x | 19.1x+520% | 26.4x+349% | — |
| Trailing PE | 160.7x | 25.1x+540% | 24.1x+566% | 143.3x+12% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.25x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.4x | 15.2x+60% | 16.7x+46% | 19.2x+27% |
| Price/FCF | 31.3x | 21.1x+49% | 15.4x+103% | 22.6x+38% |
| Price/Sales | 7.1x | 3.1x+126% | 3.0x+138% | 5.0x+42% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.14% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 3.35% |
VTR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVTR Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
VTR pays 2.1% total shareholder yield with 13.4% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+20.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-4.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.54
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
13.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$741M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.5B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
9.1× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
2.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.86
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
342.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
475M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageVTR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt Burden
Ventas carries a substantial debt load, with leverage exceeding many peers. This exposes the REIT to interest rate risk, as rising rates could increase borrowing costs and compress cash flow. The company is actively using equity to improve its credit profile, but the current debt level remains a significant risk.
High Risk
Rich Valuation
Ventas trades at high valuation multiples, with a P/B ratio above the S&P 500 average and an EV/EBITDA considered "rich". This implies the market expects near‑perfect growth, creating a risk if performance fails to meet lofty expectations. A downturn could lead to a sharp decline in share price.
Medium
Operator Performance
Ventas relies on third‑party operators for its Senior Housing Operating Portfolio. If operators underperform or labor cost pressures persist, margin expansion could slow, impacting profitability. The dependence on external operators adds execution risk.
Medium
Rising Operating Expenses
Property‑level operating expenses for senior housing have increased, indicating a need for Ventas to optimize operational efficiency. Higher costs could erode operating margins if not controlled. The company must manage expense growth to maintain profitability.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
The healthcare real estate market is highly competitive, with many players vying for properties and tenants. Intense competition can limit Ventas's ability to raise rents and drive profitability. Market share erosion could pressure earnings.
Lower
Market Dependence
Ventas's performance is closely tied to the healthcare and senior living sectors, which are subject to regulatory changes and economic fluctuations. Policy shifts or downturns could reduce occupancy rates and rental income. This sector concentration adds risk to the company's revenue stream.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VTR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Analyst Optimism
Multiple analysts have issued "Buy" ratings for VTR, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and several recent upgrades and price target increases. The strong analyst sentiment signals confidence in the company’s trajectory.
Revenue Growth 21.7% YoY
Ventas has demonstrated year‑over‑year revenue growth of approximately 21.7%, outpacing U.S. market benchmarks. This robust top‑line expansion supports continued scale and market share gains.
Improving Profitability & FFO
The company has shown improving profit margins and a return to profitability, with Funds From Operations (FFO) rising significantly. Consistent EPS beats in recent quarters further underscore operational strength.
Senior Housing Demand Surge
Ventas’ portfolio includes a significant number of senior housing communities, positioning it to benefit from an aging population. Demand for senior housing is expected to surge while supply growth remains low, creating a favorable supply‑demand dynamic.
Dividend Increase & Strategic Growth
Ventas recently increased its dividend, signaling confidence in cash flow and rewarding shareholders. The company is actively investing in senior housing, targeting profitable organic and external growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VTR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$86.78
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$61.76
+40.5% from the low
52-Week High
$88.50
-1.9% from the high
1 Month
+4.62%
3 Month
+8.69%
YTD
+12.2%
1 Year
+30.3%
3Y CAGR
+21.9%
5Y CAGR
+10.2%
10Y CAGR
+2.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VTR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
118.3x
vs 26.5x median
+347% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.6%
vs +7.8% median
+74% above peer median
Net Margin
4.2%
vs 19.2% median
-78% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VTR VTR Ventas, Inc. | $41.3B | 118.3x | +13.6% | 4.2% | Buy | +4.6% |
WEL WELL Welltower Inc. | $150.1B | 78.9x | +23.6% | 12.3% | Buy | +5.7% |
HR HR Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | $6.9B | — | +0.7% | -17.5% | Hold | -3.0% |
OHI OHI Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. | $13.7B | 23.4x | +7.8% | 51.0% | Hold | +6.5% |
SBR SBRA Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. | $5.1B | 29.5x | +8.3% | 19.2% | Hold | +4.0% |
NHI NHI National Health Investors, Inc. | $3.5B | 21.6x | +4.0% | 36.8% | Hold | +16.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VTR Dividend and Capital Return
VTR returns 2.1% total yield, led by a 2.14% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.14%
Payout Ratio
3.4%
How VTR Splits Its Return
Div 2.14%
Dividend 2.14%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.86
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-2.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
475M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.92 | +6.7% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | $1.80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| 2023 | $1.80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.6% |
| 2022 | $1.80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsVTR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ventas, Inc. (VTR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ventas, Inc. (VTR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $91, implying +4.6% from the current price of $87. The bear case scenario is $5 and the bull case is $17.
02What is the VTR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VTR is $91 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+15.2% from today), and the low-end target is $85 (-2.1%). The base case model target is $54.
03Is Ventas, Inc. (VTR) stock overvalued in 2026?
VTR trades at 118.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ventas, Inc. (VTR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VTR in 2026 are: (1) Debt Burden — Ventas carries a substantial debt load, with leverage exceeding many peers. (2) Rich Valuation — Ventas trades at high valuation multiples, with a P/B ratio above the S&P 500 average and an EV/EBITDA considered "rich". (3) Operator Performance — Ventas relies on third‑party operators for its Senior Housing Operating Portfolio. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ventas, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VTR will report consensus revenue of $7.0B (+13.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.60 (+12.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.9B in revenue.
06When does Ventas, Inc. (VTR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for VTR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ventas, Inc. generate?
Ventas, Inc. (VTR) generated $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.4%. VTR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).