Ventas, Inc. (VTR)
Valuation Overview•Is Ventas, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 37/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
VTR struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (12.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 13.4%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.7B | +18.5% | +12.2% | +9.0% | +5.9% | |
| EBITDA | $574.0M | — | +9.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $55.9M | +209.8% | — | — | -5.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.11 | +184.2% | — | -14.3% | -8.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $321.6M | +24.6% | +12.4% | +0.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | -4.3% | 26.6% | 34.0% | 44.3% |
| Operating Margin | 13.4% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 15.4% |
| Net Margin | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 9.6% |
| FCF Margin | 22.4% | 21.6% | 21.9% | 28.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.12 | $0.12 | -2.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.10 | $0.15 | +49.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.87 | $0.88 | +1.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.85 | $0.87 | +2.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.82 | $0.84 | +2.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.02 | $0.81 | +4150.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.80 | $0.80 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.79 | $0.80 | +1.3% |
Total return is +33.3% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +8.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +6.2% | -3.1% | — |
| 1Y | +33.3% | +8.3% | +3.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +24.3% | +5.0% | +12.3% |
| 5YCAGR | +9.9% | -2.9% | +16.2% |
| 10YCAGR | +4.2% | -9.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Ventas, Inc. (VTR) valuation, health, and returns.
Ventas, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $91.48)
Ventas, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $91.48 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $55.31 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $95.86 (implying +17.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Ventas, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 37/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 2.5%.
Ventas, Inc. pays a 2.3% dividend yield, covered by a 342% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Ventas, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +18.5% 1Y revenue growth and +184.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +12.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 32 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +17.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Ventas, Inc. include: -12.5% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.11x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.