Upside case
Bull case
$438+104.2%
WELL would need investors to value it at roughly 161x earnings — about 82x more generous than today's 79x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Welltower Inc. (WELL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
34
analysts
21 bullish · 0 bearish · 34 covering WELL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$227
+5.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$30 – $438
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
78.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $150.1B
WELL price targets
Three scenarios for where WELL stock could go
Current
~$214
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $214
Bear
$30
Base
$214
Bull
$438
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$214+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing WELL — at roughly 79x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$30-86.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 68x multiple contraction could push WELL down roughly 86% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Welltower Inc.
WELL · NYSEReal EstateREIT - Healthcare FacilitiesDecember year-end
Welltower is a healthcare-focused real estate investment trust that owns and invests in seniors housing communities, post-acute care facilities, and outpatient medical properties. It generates revenue primarily through rental income from its healthcare real estate portfolio — with seniors housing contributing roughly 60% of net operating income, outpatient medical properties about 25%, and post-acute care facilities the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its scale and strategic partnerships with leading healthcare operators, creating a diversified portfolio concentrated in high-growth markets across the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.
Market Cap
$150.1B
Revenue TTM
$11.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
12.3%
WELL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+30.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.28/$1.22
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.30
Revenue
$2.7B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.13/$0.59
Revenue
$3.2B/$2.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.02/$0.68
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.28/$1.22 | +4.9% | $2.5B/$2.7B | -7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.34/$1.30 | +3.1% | $2.7B/$3.0B | -9.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.13/$0.59 | +91.5% | $3.2B/$2.9B | +11.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.02/$0.68 | +50.2% | $3.4B/$3.1B | +7.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.4B
+23.6% YoY
FY2
$17.7B
+23.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.38
+20.6% YoY
FY2
$2.72
+14.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.5B
FCF Margin: 21.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WELL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WELL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Senior Housing - Operating
81.1%
+40.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
73.2%
+20.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Senior Housing - Operating is the largest disclosed segment at 81.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 40.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 73.2%, up 20.9% YoY.
WELL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $91 — implies -58.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
58.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WELL
154.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+514% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
WELL
154.2x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+539% premium
vs WELL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
154.2x
vs
5Y Average
115.1x
+34% premium
Forward PE
78.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+313%
Real Estate
26.4x
+199%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
154.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
+514%
Real Estate
24.1x
+539%
5Y Avg
115.1x
+34%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Real Estate
1.25x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
66.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+339%
Real Estate
16.7x
+301%
5Y Avg
32.8x
+103%
Price/FCF
52.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+150%
Real Estate
15.4x
+242%
5Y Avg
32.4x
+63%
Price/Sales
14.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+350%
Real Estate
3.0x
+373%
5Y Avg
8.4x
+68%
Dividend Yield
1.29%
S&P 500
1.87%
-31%
Real Estate
4.66%
-72%
5Y Avg
2.55%
-49%
| Metric | WELL | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg WELL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 78.9x | 19.1x+313% | 26.4x+199% | — |
| Trailing PE | 154.2x | 25.1x+514% | 24.1x+539% | 115.1x+34% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.25x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 66.8x | 15.2x+339% | 16.7x+301% | 32.8x+103% |
| Price/FCF | 52.7x | 21.1x+150% | 15.4x+242% | 32.4x+63% |
| Price/Sales | 14.1x | 3.1x+350% | 3.0x+373% | 8.4x+68% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.29% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 2.55% |
WELL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWELL Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
WELL pays 1.3% total shareholder yield with 4.4% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+38.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.97
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
4.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
0.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.3B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
6.4× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (0.5%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.3%
Dividend
1.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.76
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
200.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
701M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageWELL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
EBITDA Performance
Welltower reported an EBITDA loss of $3.7 million, falling short of analyst estimates, and has seen a $56.6 million revenue reduction in 2024. These figures suggest operational challenges that could erode future profitability.
High Risk
Debt & Coverage
The company’s debt‑to‑equity ratio sits at 44.4 %, but operating cash flow covers only 15 % of debt and EBIT covers interest at a 0.8× ratio. WELL Health Technologies has an even higher 60 % debt‑to‑equity, indicating significant leverage risk.
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory
Legal and regulatory issues account for 38 % of Welltower’s reported risks, underscoring the potential for costly compliance challenges or litigation that could disrupt operations.
High Risk
Segment Concentration
Seniors Housing Operating segment generates 76 % of total revenue; a downturn in this sector would disproportionately impact overall financial performance.
High Risk
Dividend Sustainability
Welltower’s dividend payout ratio is 211.43 %, meaning dividends exceed earnings, raising concerns about long‑term payout sustainability.
Medium
Acquisition Integration
Difficulty integrating recent acquisitions could erode EBITDA margins, especially amid rising competition in higher‑growth segments, potentially weakening profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WELL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Revenue Growth
Welltower reported a 41% year-over-year revenue increase. FY24 projections indicate continued revenue and EBITDA growth.
Diversified Global Portfolio
The company owns 2,391 properties across senior housing, outpatient, and other healthcare sectors. It also operates internationally in Canada and the UK.
Strong Financial Liquidity
Welltower maintains a healthy quick ratio, demonstrating robust liquidity and the ability to meet short-term obligations.
Attractive Shareholder Returns
Over the past year, the company outperformed US Health Care REITs and the broader US market in shareholder returns. It also offers a consistent quarterly dividend.
Growth Potential via Expansion
Forecasts project compound annual growth rates for net income and operating income. Expansion initiatives and operational improvements are expected to boost revenue and margins.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WELL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$214.30
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$142.65
+50.2% from the low
52-Week High
$219.59
-2.4% from the high
1 Month
+6.66%
3 Month
+12.16%
YTD
+14.6%
1 Year
+42.0%
3Y CAGR
+39.6%
5Y CAGR
+24.2%
10Y CAGR
+11.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WELL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
78.9x
vs 23.4x median
+237% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+23.6%
vs +8.3% median
+184% above peer median
Net Margin
12.3%
vs 36.8% median
-67% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WEL WELL Welltower Inc. | $150.1B | 78.9x | +23.6% | 12.3% | Buy | +5.7% |
VTR VTR Ventas, Inc. | $41.3B | 118.3x | +13.6% | 4.2% | Buy | +4.6% |
OHI OHI Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. | $13.7B | 23.4x | +7.8% | 51.0% | Hold | +6.5% |
SBR SBRA Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. | $5.1B | 29.5x | +8.3% | 19.2% | Hold | +4.0% |
LTC LTC LTC Properties, Inc. | $1.9B | 19.7x | +19.7% | 44.9% | Hold | -5.8% |
NHI NHI National Health Investors, Inc. | $3.5B | 21.6x | +4.0% | 36.8% | Hold | +16.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WELL Dividend and Capital Return
WELL returns 1.3% total yield, led by a 1.29% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
1.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.29%
Payout Ratio
2.0%
How WELL Splits Its Return
Div 1.29%
Dividend 1.29%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.76
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.9%
5Y Div CAGR
0.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
701M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.82 | +10.2% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| 2024 | $2.56 | +4.9% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $2.44 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $2.44 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsWELL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Welltower Inc. (WELL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Welltower Inc. (WELL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $227, implying +5.7% from the current price of $214. The bear case scenario is $30 and the bull case is $438.
02What is the WELL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WELL is $227 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $240 (+12.0% from today), and the low-end target is $208 (-2.9%). The base case model target is $214.
03Is Welltower Inc. (WELL) stock overvalued in 2026?
WELL trades at 78.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Welltower Inc. (WELL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WELL in 2026 are: (1) EBITDA Performance — Welltower reported an EBITDA loss of $3. (2) Debt & Coverage — The company’s debt‑to‑equity ratio sits at 44. (3) Legal & Regulatory — Legal and regulatory issues account for 38 % of Welltower’s reported risks, underscoring the potential for costly compliance challenges or litigation that could disrupt operations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Welltower Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WELL will report consensus revenue of $14.4B (+23.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.38 (+20.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.7B in revenue.
06When does Welltower Inc. (WELL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WELL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Welltower Inc. generate?
Welltower Inc. (WELL) generated $2.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 21.9%. WELL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).