Upside case
Bull case
$158+565.7%
WY would need investors to value it at roughly 557x earnings — about 473x more generous than today's 84x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
13 bullish · 2 bearish · 25 covering WY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$30
+25.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$17 – $158
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
83.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $17.1B
WY price targets
Three scenarios for where WY stock could go
Current
~$24
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $24
Bear
$17
Base
$30
Bull
$158
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$30+26.5%
At 106x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$17-28.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 23x multiple contraction could push WY down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Weyerhaeuser Company
WY · NYSEReal EstateREIT - SpecialtyDecember year-end
Weyerhaeuser is a timberland real estate investment trust that owns and manages millions of acres of forests while manufacturing wood products. It generates revenue primarily through timber sales (~40% of sales), wood products manufacturing (~50%), and real estate development from its land holdings. The company's massive scale of owned timberlands—approximately 11 million acres—creates a natural resource moat that is difficult to replicate.
Market Cap
$17.1B
Revenue TTM
$6.9B
Net Income TTM
$397M
Net Margin
5.7%
WY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+88.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.12/$0.10
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.06/$-0.07
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.09/$-0.13
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.11/$0.04
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.12/$0.10 | +20.0% | $1.9B/$1.7B | +8.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.06/$-0.07 | +185.7% | $1.8B/$1.6B | +11.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.09/$-0.13 | +30.8% | $1.5B/$1.6B | -1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.11/$0.04 | +175.0% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.7B
-3.4% YoY
FY2
$6.5B
-2.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.48
-13.2% YoY
FY2
$0.57
+19.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$516M
FCF Margin: 7.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Wood Products
66.1%
-5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
86.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Wood Products is the largest disclosed segment at 66.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 5.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 86.9%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
WY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $21 — implies -11.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
11.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WY
52.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+110% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
WY
52.7x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+118% premium
vs WY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
52.7x
vs
5Y Average
31.8x
+65% premium
Forward PE
83.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+338%
Real Estate
26.4x
+217%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
52.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+110%
Real Estate
24.1x
+118%
5Y Avg
31.8x
+65%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Real Estate
1.25x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+50%
Real Estate
16.7x
+37%
5Y Avg
15.4x
+48%
Price/FCF
194.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
+821%
Real Estate
15.4x
+1159%
5Y Avg
62.3x
+212%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-21%
Real Estate
3.0x
-17%
5Y Avg
2.8x
-11%
Dividend Yield
3.54%
S&P 500
1.87%
+90%
Real Estate
4.66%
-24%
5Y Avg
4.31%
-18%
| Metric | WY | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg WY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 83.6x | 19.1x+338% | 26.4x+217% | — |
| Trailing PE | 52.7x | 25.1x+110% | 24.1x+118% | 31.8x+65% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.25x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.8x | 15.2x+50% | 16.7x+37% | 15.4x+48% |
| Price/FCF | 194.2x | 21.1x+821% | 15.4x+1159% | 62.3x+212% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-21% | 3.0x-17% | 2.8x-11% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.54% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 4.31% |
WY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWY Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
WY pays 4.5% total shareholder yield with 7.7% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-2.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
13.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.55
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
7.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$464M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.1B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
9.9× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.5%
Dividend
3.5%
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$160M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.84
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
187.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
721M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageWY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Housing Market Sensitivity
Weyerhaeuser's core business is heavily reliant on the health of the housing market. A slowdown in new home construction or renovations directly reduces demand for lumber and wood products, leading to lower prices and impacting revenue and profitability.
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Fluctuations in lumber and timber prices significantly affect Weyerhaeuser's financial results. Historically low prices for logs and wood products have pressured margins and contributed to increased leverage.
High Risk
Economic Downturns
Recessions or economic contractions can lead to reduced consumer spending on housing-related items, decreased demand for wood products, and a potential decline in the value of the company's real estate holdings.
Medium
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Rising interest rates can negatively impact the housing market and also weigh on REIT shares, affecting Weyerhaeuser's stock performance.
Medium
Environmental and Regulatory Risks
Changes in forestry, land use, and environmental regulations, as well as stricter air quality standards, can impact operations and costs. Climate-related events like wildfires and pest outbreaks also pose significant risks.
Medium
Leverage and Financial Health
S&P Global Ratings views Weyerhaeuser's financial risk as significant, with leverage deteriorating due to lower EBITDA and increased debt. A high payout ratio has also been noted as a potential long-term sustainability concern.
Lower
Operational Risks
These include risks related to manufacturing operations, maintenance, and the potential for disruptions due to natural disasters such as fires, floods, or pest infestations.
Lower
Trade Policies and Tariffs
As a significant exporter, Weyerhaeuser is affected by changes in international trade policies, tariffs, and duties on wood products.
Lower
Competition
The company faces competition from domestic and foreign producers in the wood products market.
Lower
Nature-Related Risks
These include physical risks from ecosystem degradation, operational challenges in protecting nature, and systemic nature-related declines. Specific concerns include damage from extreme weather, decreased harvestable acres, and reduced forest productivity due to climate change.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Lumber Price and Interest Rate Recovery
Weyerhaeuser's stock has underperformed due to high interest rates and declining lumber prices. However, as these factors normalize, the company is expected to benefit, with upside potential as rates and wood prices recover.
Undervalued Timberland Assets
The company's shares are trading at a significant discount to the estimated net asset value (NAV) of its timberland portfolio. Some analysts believe these assets are undervalued, trading at less than $2,000 per acre, despite their inherent value.
Attractive Dividend Yield
Weyerhaeuser offers a dividend yield of around 3.39% to 4%, which is considered attractive for income-focused investors. Future dividend growth is expected to be supported by lumber demand and potential interest rate cuts.
Strategic Initiatives and Growth Targets
Weyerhaeuser has outlined ambitious growth targets, including significant incremental Adjusted EBITDA by 2030, driven by timberland optimization, manufacturing investments, and expansion in Climate Solutions.
Government Tariffs
Recent U.S. tariffs on wood imports, in addition to existing duties on Canadian lumber, could provide a competitive advantage to U.S.-based suppliers like Weyerhaeuser by increasing the cost of imported competition and potentially driving up domestic lumber prices.
Resilience through Cycles
The company emphasizes its large timber asset base, climate-focused initiatives, and dividend as sources of resilience through lumber market cycles.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$23.70
52W Range Position
38%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$21.16
+12.0% from the low
52-Week High
$27.86
-14.9% from the high
1 Month
-2.07%
3 Month
-11.27%
YTD
-0.4%
1 Year
-8.2%
3Y CAGR
-7.2%
5Y CAGR
-9.3%
10Y CAGR
-2.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
83.6x
vs 40.7x median
+105% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-3.4%
vs -4.5% median
+24% above peer median
Net Margin
5.7%
vs 5.4% median
+6% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WY WY Weyerhaeuser Company | $17.1B | 83.6x | -3.4% | 5.7% | Buy | +25.9% |
PCH PCH PotlatchDeltic Corporation | $3.2B | 53.8x | +0.1% | 5.8% | Hold | +22.2% |
RYN RYN Rayonier Inc. | $6.3B | 54.8x | -19.9% | 70.9% | Hold | +34.1% |
LPX LPX Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | $5.9B | 27.6x | -5.5% | 5.4% | Buy | +46.2% |
WFG WFG West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | $4.5B | — | +9.6% | -25.2% | Buy | +35.1% |
UFP UFPI UFP Industries, Inc. | $4.7B | 15.7x | -4.5% | 4.3% | Buy | +24.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WY Dividend and Capital Return
WY returns 4.5% total yield, led by a 3.54% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.9%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
3.54%
Payout Ratio
1.9%
How WY Splits Its Return
Div 3.54%
Buyback 0.9%
Dividend 3.54%Buybacks 0.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.84
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-27.1%
5Y Div CAGR
10.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$160M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
721M
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.21 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.84 | -10.6% | 0.9% | 4.5% |
| 2024 | $0.94 | -43.4% | 0.8% | 4.1% |
| 2023 | $1.66 | -23.5% | 0.5% | 5.3% |
| 2022 | $2.17 | +83.9% | 2.4% | 9.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsWY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $30, implying +25.9% from the current price of $24. The bear case scenario is $17 and the bull case is $158.
02What is the WY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WY is $30 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $33 (+39.2% from today), and the low-end target is $28 (+18.1%). The base case model target is $30.
03Is Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) stock overvalued in 2026?
WY trades at 83.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WY in 2026 are: (1) Housing Market Sensitivity — Weyerhaeuser's core business is heavily reliant on the health of the housing market. (2) Commodity Price Volatility — Fluctuations in lumber and timber prices significantly affect Weyerhaeuser's financial results. (3) Economic Downturns — Recessions or economic contractions can lead to reduced consumer spending on housing-related items, decreased demand for wood products, and a potential decline in the value of the company's real estate holdings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Weyerhaeuser Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WY will report consensus revenue of $6.7B (-3.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.48 (-13.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.5B in revenue.
06When does Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Weyerhaeuser Company generate?
Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) generated $516M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.5%. WY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.5% yield) and share repurchases ($160M TTM).