MODEL VERDICT
AAON, Inc. (AAON)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $93.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $99.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $93.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $92.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $93.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $49.06 | -47.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $51.81 | -44.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $47.85 | -48.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $42.61 | -54.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $11.99 | -87.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $64.52 | -31.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $61.92 | -33.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $48.69 | -48.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.47 | -22.6% | 100% | 58 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 61× | 67× | 73× (Current) | 79× | 85× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $80 | $88 | $96 | $104 | $112 |
| Conservative (5%) | $83 | $91 | $99 | $107 | $115 |
| Base Case (5.4%) | $83 | $91 | $99 | $107 | $116 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $84 | $93 | $101 | $109 | $118 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 51.20 | 48.44 | 34.68 | 72.53 | 12.93 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.49 | 38.22 | 27.21 | 62.13 | 11.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.57 | 28.67 | 22.62 | 43.20 | 7.10 |
| P/FCF | 301.03 | 112.69 | 42.80 | 733.11 | 321.82 |
| P/FFO | 35.64 | 33.90 | 27.42 | 47.85 | 7.13 |
| P/TBV | 10.98 | 10.17 | 8.69 | 14.81 | 2.36 |
| P/AFFO | 154.76 | 81.06 | 49.82 | 536.85 | 189.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.98 | 8.96 | 7.08 | 11.94 | 1.68 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.12 | 5.54 | 4.39 | 8.20 | 1.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates AAON's fair value at $72.47 vs the current price of $93.59, implying -22.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $52.19 (P10) to $62.92 (P90), with a median of $57.50.
AAON's current P/E of 72.6x compares to the industry median of 37.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +95.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 51.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover AAON with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $119.00 (range: $118.00 — $120.00), implying +27.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AAON trades at the 9410th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (51.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AAON's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4490.0% to approximately $136. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.