Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)
Valuation Overview•Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Popular:
Weak fundamentals — significant concerns
Monthly model snapshots showing quantitative assessments. High Conviction = model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Return columns show actual price changes following each observation date for reference purposes only.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 26Latest | Neutral | 0.21 | $58.93 | — | — |
| Apr 24, 26 | Neutral | 0.20 | $58.18 | — | — |
| Apr 17, 26 | Neutral | 0.21 | $57.49 | — | — |
| Apr 16, 26 | Neutral | 0.21 | $56.88 | — | — |
| Apr 10, 26 | Neutral | 0.19 | $54.59 | — | — |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $0.41 | $0.86 | +109.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.74 | $0.92 | +24.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.59 | $0.69 | +16.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.81 | $-0.22 | +72.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-1.38 | $-1.18 | +14.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.50 | $-0.04 | -108.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.94 | $0.75 | -20.2% | ||
| Q2'24 | $0.68 | $0.67 | -1.5% |
Total return, benchmark alpha, and annual history in one section.
3Y, 5Y, and 10Y use CAGR when available.
| Period | Return | vs S&P | Dividends |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +50.6% | +43.2% | — |
| 1Y | +87.8% | +56.5% | +3.2% |
| 3YCAGR | -21.4% | -42.6% | +2.4% |
| 5YCAGR | -18.9% | -30.9% | +6.6% |
| 10YCAGR | -6.9% | -20.5% | — |
Year-by-year total return versus SPY, including dividend contribution.
| Year | Stock Return | SPY Return | Alpha | Dividends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026YTD | +38.0% | +0.4% | +37.6% | +1.3% |
| 2025 | -16.3% | +16.6% | -32.9% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | -22.1% | +24.0% | -46.0% | +1.6% |
| 2023Worst | -58.4% | +24.8% | -83.2% | +1.3% |
| 2022 | -35.4% | -19.9% | -15.4% | +2.5% |
| 2021Best | +54.5% | +28.8% | +25.7% | +2.1% |
| 2020 | -0.7% | +15.1% | -15.8% | +0.5% |
| 2019 | +1.6% | +28.7% | -27.1% | +0.2% |
Based on our multi-model analysis of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) at $58.07: Relative valuation verdict: Slightly Overvalued vs industry peers. Fundamental quality score: 30/100 (below average). Wall Street consensus: Hold from 44 analysts. This is a quantitative summary combining DCF intrinsic value, peer-based relative valuation, quality scoring, and analyst consensus — not a buy/sell recommendation. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. has multiple fair value estimates from different frameworks: Relative fair value: $55.68 (Slightly Overvalued, -5.5% vs current price). Analyst consensus target: $58.75 (+1.2% upside, 44 analysts). We recommend comparing all three lenses — when DCF, relative, and analyst targets converge, the signal is stronger. When they diverge, investigate what assumptions differ.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s financial health as measured by our composite scoring: Overall quality score: 30/100. Piotroski F-Score: 4/9 (moderate). Altman Z-Score: 1.2 (distress zone — elevated risk). Return on invested capital: 2.9%. Cash conversion (OCF/NI): -1.05x (earnings exceed cash generation). The quality score blends profitability (ROIC, ROE, margins), solvency (leverage, coverage, Z-Score), and growth trajectory into a single 0–100 framework updated end-of-day.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s performance profile: 1-year total return: +87.8%. 1-year alpha vs S&P 500: +56.5% (outperforming the benchmark). 5-year CAGR: -18.9%. Maximum drawdown (1Y): -41.7%. Relative Strength rating: 72/99 (average momentum). Beta: 1.42 (more volatile than the market). Total returns include reinvested dividends. Alpha is calculated against the S&P 500 Total Return Index over matching periods.
Current dividend yield: 1.7%. Annual dividend per share: $0.99. Payout ratio: 136% (stretched). 5-year dividend CAGR: +3.9%. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks): 1.7%.
Wall Street's outlook on Advance Auto Parts, Inc.: Consensus rating: Hold from 44 covering analysts. Consensus price target: $58.75 (range: $55.00 to $63.00). Implied upside from current price: +1.2%. Earnings beat rate: 42% with a 5-quarter consecutive beat streak. Forward P/E: 21.0x. Analyst estimates are blended into our proprietary model with weight based on coverage depth and historical accuracy. We track estimate revisions, beat rates, and grade changes daily.
Key risks identified for Advance Auto Parts, Inc.: Cyclicality risk: The stock shows cyclical earnings behavior (severity: medium, currently at Mid-Cycle of the cycle). Drawdown risk: The stock experienced a -41.7% max drawdown in the past year. Volatility risk: Beta of 1.42 indicates significantly higher volatility than the broad market. Solvency risk: Altman Z-Score (1.2) is in the distress zone, indicating elevated bankruptcy risk. Dividend risk: Payout ratio above 90% leaves minimal margin for maintaining the dividend. Note: This model does not capture regulatory changes, management decisions, competitive disruption, or geopolitical events. Macro and qualitative risks remain material and should be assessed independently.
No. This overview dashboard aggregates data from our DCF intrinsic value model, relative peer multiples model, proprietary estimates engine, and third-party analyst consensus feeds. It is strictly for educational and informational purposes. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, quality scores, and signals are automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as investment recommendations. Consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.