Intrinsic Value Overview
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) intrinsic value summary: current price $53.17, fair value $58.37, +10% implied move via DCF and relative valuation.
Method Breakdown
Base blend: 60% DCF + 40% RelativeCompany Quality
Weak fundamentals — significant concerns
Wall St Estimates
Shareholder Returns
Total Return vs S&P 500
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability & Financial HealthProfitability
Returns & MarginsSolvency
Financial HealthGrowth & Margins
Quarterly Trends · 5-Year Window · Hover for detailPiotroski F-Score
Fundamental QualityMonte Carlo Distribution & Risk
10,000 SimulationsModel Observation History
Quantitative Track RecordMonthly model snapshots showing quantitative assessments. High Conviction = model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Return columns show actual price changes following each observation date for reference purposes only.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 26Latest | Neutral | 0.37 | $53.17 | — | — |
| Feb 21, 26 | Neutral | 0.21 | $55.87 | — | — |
| Feb 14, 26 | Moderate | 0.60 | $58.85 | — | — |
| Feb 11, 26 | Moderate | 0.60 | $56.60 | — | — |
| Jan 11, 26 | Moderate | 0.62 | $43.84 | +26.1% | — |
Earnings Surprise History
Last 12 Quarters| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25Latest | $0.74 | $0.92 | +24.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.59 | $0.69 | +16.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.81 | $-0.22 | +72.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-1.38 | $-1.18 | +14.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.50 | $-0.04 | -108.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.94 | $0.75 | -20.2% | ||
| Q2'24 | $0.68 | $0.67 | -1.5% | ||
| Q1'24 | $0.24 | $-0.59 | -345.8% |
Peer Valuation Comparison
Specialty Retail CohortAnnual Returns vs SPY
Total Return (Price + Dividends)| Year | Stock Return | SPY Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026YTD | +38.0% | +0.4% | +37.6% |
| 2025 | -16.3% | +16.6% | -32.9% |
| 2024 | -22.1% | +24.0% | -46.0% |
| 2023Worst | -58.4% | +24.8% | -83.2% |
| 2022 | -35.4% | -19.9% | -15.4% |
| 2021Best | +54.5% | +28.8% | +25.7% |
| 2020 | -0.7% | +15.1% | -15.8% |
| 2019 | +1.6% | +28.7% | -27.1% |
Frequently Asked Questions
ValuationIs AAP a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our multi-model analysis of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) at $53.17: Relative valuation verdict: Slightly Undervalued vs industry peers. Fundamental quality score: 30/100 (below average). Wall Street consensus: Hold from 44 analysts. This is a quantitative summary combining DCF intrinsic value, peer-based relative valuation, quality scoring, and analyst consensus — not a buy/sell recommendation. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.
ValuationWhat is Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s fair value?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. has multiple fair value estimates from different frameworks: Relative fair value: $58.37 (Slightly Undervalued, +9.8% vs current price). Analyst consensus target: $56.40 (+6.1% upside, 44 analysts). We recommend comparing all three lenses — when DCF, relative, and analyst targets converge, the signal is stronger. When they diverge, investigate what assumptions differ.
QualityIs AAP financially healthy?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s financial health as measured by our composite scoring: Overall quality score: 30/100. Piotroski F-Score: 4/9 (moderate). Altman Z-Score: 1.2 (distress zone — elevated risk). Return on invested capital: 2.9%. Cash conversion (OCF/NI): -1.05x (earnings exceed cash generation). The quality score blends profitability (ROIC, ROE, margins), solvency (leverage, coverage, Z-Score), and growth trajectory into a single 0–100 framework updated end-of-day.
PerformanceHow has AAP performed compared to the S&P 500?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s performance profile: 1-year total return: +46.8%. 1-year alpha vs S&P 500: +31.4% (outperforming the benchmark). 5-year CAGR: -16.3%. Maximum drawdown (1Y): -41.7%. Relative Strength rating: 65/99 (average momentum). Beta: 1.01 (similar volatility to the market). Total returns include reinvested dividends. Alpha is calculated against the S&P 500 Total Return Index over matching periods.
IncomeDoes AAP pay dividends?
Current dividend yield: 1.9%. Annual dividend per share: $0.99. Payout ratio: 136% (stretched). 5-year dividend CAGR: +3.9%. Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks): 1.9%.
EstimatesWhat do Wall Street analysts say about AAP?
Wall Street's outlook on Advance Auto Parts, Inc.: Consensus rating: Hold from 44 covering analysts. Consensus price target: $56.40 (range: $40.00 to $63.00). Implied upside from current price: +6.1%. Earnings beat rate: 42% with a 4-quarter consecutive beat streak. Forward P/E: 19.6x. Analyst estimates are blended into our proprietary model with weight based on coverage depth and historical accuracy. We track estimate revisions, beat rates, and grade changes daily.
RiskWhat are the key risks of investing in AAP?
Key risks identified for Advance Auto Parts, Inc.: Cyclicality risk: The stock shows cyclical earnings behavior (severity: medium, currently at Mid-Cycle of the cycle). Drawdown risk: The stock experienced a -41.7% max drawdown in the past year. Solvency risk: Altman Z-Score (1.2) is in the distress zone, indicating elevated bankruptcy risk. Dividend risk: Payout ratio above 90% leaves minimal margin for maintaining the dividend. Note: This model does not capture regulatory changes, management decisions, competitive disruption, or geopolitical events. Macro and qualitative risks remain material and should be assessed independently.
LegalDoes this dashboard provide investment advice?
No. This overview dashboard aggregates data from our DCF intrinsic value model, relative peer multiples model, proprietary estimates engine, and third-party analyst consensus feeds. It is strictly for educational and informational purposes. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, quality scores, and signals are automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as investment recommendations. Consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.