Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $30M | $-336M | $44M | $99M | $106M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.50 | $-5.63 | $0.73 | $1.61 | $1.69 |
| YoY Growth | — | -1229.3% | — | +125.7% | +6.4% |
| Net Margin | 0.3% | -3.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.6B | $8.4B | $8.3B | $7.7B | $7.5B |
| Net Income | $44M | $99M | $106M | $-5M | $-13M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.73 | $1.61 | $1.69 | $-0.08 | $-0.20 |
| Free Cash Flow | $-298M | $7M | $2M | $-2M | $-4M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $1.61. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 50/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Advance Auto Parts, Inc.: Bear case $-349, Base case $123, and Bull case $543. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -1.9%, reaching approximately $8.4B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 50/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 1.1% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($-349) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 40.7% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 53% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.