Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated Feb 28, 2026
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
As of March 2, 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $56.40, based on estimates from 44 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $53.17, this represents a potential upside of +6.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $3.19B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $40.00 to a high of $63.00, representing a 41% spread in expectations. The median target of $57.50 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 12 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,27 rating it Hold, and 5 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, AAP trades at a trailing P/E of 72.8x and forward P/E of 19.6x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +275.6% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $123.03, with bear and bull scenarios of $-348.98 and $543.38 respectively. Model confidence stands at 50/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
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Start ComparisonThe consensus price target for AAP is $56.4, close to the current price of $53.17 (6.1% implied move). Based on 44 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
AAP has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 44 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 27 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $56.4 implies 6.1% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 19.5607x, AAP trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $56.4 implies 6.1% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $63 for AAP, while the most conservative target is $40. The consensus of $56.4 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $543 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AAP is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 44 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 12 have Buy ratings, 27 recommend Hold, and 5 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AAP stock forecast based on 44 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $56.4, with estimates ranging from $40 (bear case) to $63 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $123, with bear/bull scenarios of $-349/$543.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AAP's fair value at $123 (base case), with a bear case of $-349 and bull case of $543. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 50/100.
AAP trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 72.8x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
AAP appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Hold" rating and minimal upside to the $56.4 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AAP analyst price targets range from $40 to $63, a 41% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $56.4 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $-349-$543 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.