AAP trades 25.8% below Wall Street's consensus target of $51.69.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AAP achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 13.7x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 44 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $51.69, based on estimates from 44 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $41.10, this represents a potential upside of +25.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.48B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $45.00 to a high of $65.00, representing a 39% spread in expectations. The median target of $50.00 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 12 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,27 rating it Hold, and 5 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, AAP trades at a trailing P/E of 56.3x and forward P/E of 13.7x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +118.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $81.87, with bear and bull scenarios of $51.58 and $107.88 respectively. Model confidence stands at 45/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $46.5B | $2843.34 | $3677.67 | +29.3% | Buy | 18.8x | 45 |
 ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $71.2B | $85.90 | $107.30 | +24.9% | Buy | 26.1x | 47 |
 GPCGenuine Parts Company | $17.8B | $128.76 | $145.75 | +13.2% | Hold | 16.6x | 23 |
 PRTSCarParts.com, Inc. | $68M | $8.34 | — | — | — | — | — |
 LKQLKQ Corporation | $6.0B | $23.43 | $31.30 | +33.6% | Buy | 8.7x | 22 |
 MNROMonro Inc. | $438M | $14.02 | $16.50 | +17.7% | Hold | 25.7x | 24 |
 DRVNDriven Brands Holdings Inc. | $2.0B | $12.34 | $15.47 | +25.4% | Buy | 10.3x | 15 |
 TENTsakos Energy Navigation Limited | $1.4B | $47.00 | $35.00 | -25.5% | Buy | 5.2x | 26 |
 BWABorgWarner Inc. | $12.4B | $60.55 | $84.33 | +39.3% | Buy | 11.6x | 38 |
 ALVAutoliv, Inc. | $8.6B | $115.40 | $127.00 | +10.1% | Hold | 11.4x | 37 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AAP stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for AAP is $51.69, representing 25.8% upside from the current price of $41.1. With 44 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
AAP has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 44 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 27 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $51.69 implies 25.8% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 13.6936x, AAP trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $51.69 implies 25.8% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $65 for AAP, while the most conservative target is $45. The consensus of $51.69 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $108 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AAP is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 44 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 12 have Buy ratings, 27 recommend Hold, and 5 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AAP stock forecast based on 44 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $51.69, with estimates ranging from $45 (bear case) to $65 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $82, with bear/bull scenarios of $52/$108.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AAP's fair value at $82 (base case), with a bear case of $52 and bull case of $108. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 45/100.
AAP trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13.7x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 56.3x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on AAP, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $51.69 price target (25.8% upside). 12 of 44 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AAP analyst price targets range from $45 to $65, a 39% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $51.69 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $52-$108 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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