Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$264.18
→
Intrinsic$244.39
-7%
$150.62$244.39$470.95
Market implies 20% growth for 5 years
AAPL appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $264, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (20%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $151 → Bull $471. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 14% | 16% | 18% | 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6% | $352 | $383 | $417 | $452 |
| 8% | $207 | $225 | $244 | $265 |
| 10% | $145 | $157 | $170 | $184 |
| 12% | $110 | $119 | $129 | $139 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($471) offers 78% upside at 21% growth, 7% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($151) implies 43% downside at 14% growth, 10% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$116.41B
Year 2$137.20B
Year 3$161.71B
Year 4$190.59B
Year 5$224.63B
Terminal$4.58T
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate17.9%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate8.1%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$98.77BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.