Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$232.03
→
Intrinsic$188.84
-19%
$115.18$188.84$335.45
Market implies 15% growth for 5 years
ABBV trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $232, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (15%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $115 → Bull $335. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $241 | $265 | $292 | $320 |
| 10% | $155 | $171 | $189 | $208 |
| 12% | $109 | $121 | $134 | $148 |
| 14% | $81 | $91 | $101 | $112 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($335) offers 45% upside at 13% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 11% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($115) implies 50% downside at 9% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 15% growth expectations vs 11% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 19% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$19.81B
Year 2$22.01B
Year 3$24.46B
Year 4$27.18B
Year 5$30.20B
Terminal$478.51B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate11.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$17.83BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.