MODEL VERDICT
Ameris Bancorp (ABCB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $85.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $84.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $85.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $82.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $82.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $80.72 | -5.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $75.98 | -11.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $75.42 | -11.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $26.55 | -69.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $80.72 | -5.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $75.87 | -11.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $74.68 | -12.7% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $62 | $75 | $87 | $100 | $112 |
| Conservative (6%) | $64 | $77 | $89 | $102 | $115 |
| Base Case (9.7%) | $66 | $79 | $92 | $105 | $118 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $68 | $81 | $95 | $109 | $122 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.76 | 12.06 | 9.20 | 15.47 | 2.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.00 | 8.79 | 0.59 | 16.27 | 5.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.17 | 7.79 | 0.54 | 13.62 | 4.42 |
| P/FCF | 11.54 | 6.65 | 3.12 | 30.72 | 11.56 |
| P/FFO | 10.09 | 10.66 | 8.16 | 12.31 | 1.81 |
| P/TBV | 1.67 | 1.62 | 1.58 | 1.90 | 0.11 |
| P/AFFO | 10.61 | 11.03 | 8.46 | 13.06 | 1.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.82 | 2.87 | 2.30 | 3.34 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ABCB's fair value at $74.68 vs the current price of $85.56, implying -12.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $74.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.93 (P10) to $75.93 (P90), with a median of $71.83.
ABCB's current P/E of 14.3x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +6.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
12 analysts cover ABCB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $91.25 (range: $89.00 — $94.00), implying +6.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ABCB trades at the 6130th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ABCB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1730.0% to approximately $71. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.