MODEL VERDICT
Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $82.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $80.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $94.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $89.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $93.10 | Pending | -8.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $119.26 | +44.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $132.55 | +60.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $171.42 | +107.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $169.81 | +105.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $177.48 | +114.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $168.16 | +103.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $145.70 | +76.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $218.53 | +164.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $207.27 | +150.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $179.48 | +117.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $173.54 | +110.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $138.40 | +67.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $74 | $82 | $91 | $99 | $107 |
| Conservative (14%) | $78 | $86 | $95 | $104 | $112 |
| Base Case (21.1%) | $83 | $92 | $101 | $110 | $120 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $88 | $98 | $107 | $117 | $127 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.65 | 19.95 | 11.36 | 48.19 | 12.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.63 | 14.72 | 9.35 | 27.75 | 6.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.06 | 14.99 | 9.73 | 22.56 | 4.41 |
| P/FCF | 20.02 | 17.91 | 12.99 | 31.58 | 6.67 |
| P/FFO | 18.84 | 16.59 | 10.54 | 32.72 | 7.29 |
| P/TBV | 3.20 | 2.46 | 1.94 | 4.97 | 1.32 |
| P/AFFO | 24.43 | 18.93 | 11.17 | 62.97 | 17.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.20 | 2.46 | 1.94 | 4.97 | 1.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.90 | 2.89 | 2.09 | 3.86 | 0.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACLS's fair value at $138.40 vs the current price of $82.61, implying +67.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $138.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $111.57 (P10) to $150.50 (P90), with a median of $130.74.
ACLS's current P/E of 21.7x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -51.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover ACLS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $110.00 (range: $110.00 — $110.00), implying +33.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ACLS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2950.0% to approximately $107. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.