MODEL VERDICT
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $319.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $332.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $325.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $340.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $344.97 | Below threshold | -0.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $335.86 | +5.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $190.54 | -40.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $201.08 | -37.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $272.25 | -14.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $110.43 | -65.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $261.80 | -18.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $108.18 | -66.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $91.15 | -71.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $104.24 | -67.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $205.06 | -35.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $281.97 | -11.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $237.23 | -25.8% | 100% | 89 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 57× | 62× | 67× (Current) | 72× | 77× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $287 | $312 | $337 | $363 | $388 |
| Conservative (9%) | $297 | $323 | $349 | $375 | $401 |
| Base Case (14.0%) | $310 | $337 | $364 | $392 | $419 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $323 | $351 | $380 | $408 | $436 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 68.46 | 49.38 | 21.10 | 188.49 | 55.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 47.46 | 43.64 | 18.63 | 84.07 | 22.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.01 | 21.54 | 13.75 | 49.67 | 14.88 |
| P/FCF | 30.37 | 21.43 | 14.29 | 62.41 | 20.61 |
| P/FFO | 31.13 | 22.34 | 14.35 | 69.65 | 20.99 |
| P/AFFO | 32.14 | 23.14 | 14.73 | 72.13 | 21.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.11 | 11.42 | 5.30 | 20.66 | 5.97 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.17 | 10.40 | 5.86 | 26.29 | 7.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVGO's fair value at $237.23 vs the current price of $319.55, implying -25.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $237.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $189.27 (P10) to $278.85 (P90), with a median of $233.35.
AVGO's current P/E of 67.0x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +58.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 68.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
57 analysts cover AVGO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $443.72 (range: $335.00 — $510.00), implying +38.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (53), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AVGO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (31.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1060.0% to approximately $286. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.