MODEL VERDICT
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $421.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $422.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $406.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $396.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $371.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $421.02 | -0.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $314.96 | -25.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $245.96 | -41.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $331.92 | -21.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $286.11 | -32.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $339.07 | -19.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $622.67 | +47.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $203.19 | -51.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $203.59 | -51.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $245.95 | -41.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $328.91 | -21.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $332.92 | -21.0% | 100% | 83 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 74× | 81× | 88× (Current) | 95× | 102× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $423 | $464 | $504 | $544 | $584 |
| Conservative (32%) | $467 | $512 | $556 | $600 | $644 |
| Base Case (49.9%) | $529 | $579 | $629 | $679 | $729 |
| Bull Case (67%) | $591 | $647 | $703 | $759 | $814 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 68.46 | 49.38 | 21.10 | 188.49 | 55.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 47.29 | 43.64 | 18.63 | 84.07 | 22.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.26 | 21.54 | 13.75 | 50.46 | 15.30 |
| P/FCF | 30.37 | 21.43 | 14.29 | 62.41 | 20.61 |
| P/FFO | 31.41 | 22.34 | 14.35 | 69.65 | 21.30 |
| P/AFFO | 32.43 | 23.14 | 14.73 | 72.13 | 21.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.11 | 11.42 | 5.30 | 20.66 | 5.97 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.17 | 10.40 | 5.86 | 26.29 | 7.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVGO's fair value at $332.92 vs the current price of $421.28, implying -21.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $332.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $253.95 (P10) to $352.85 (P90), with a median of $302.96.
AVGO's current P/E of 88.3x compares to the industry median of 51.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +71.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 68.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
58 analysts cover AVGO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $443.72 (range: $335.00 — $510.00), implying +5.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (52), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AVGO trades at the 7450th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (68.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AVGO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (31.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3270.0% to approximately $284. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.