MODEL VERDICT
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $1427.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $1457.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $1459.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $1481.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1478.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $1403.32 | -1.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $1207.81 | -15.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $1517.09 | +6.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $1621.15 | +13.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $1534.95 | +7.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $1741.30 | +22.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $1170.46 | -18.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $901.83 | -36.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $877.55 | -38.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $1517.07 | +6.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $1621.17 | +13.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1417.66 | -0.7% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 43× | 47× | 51× (Current) | 55× | 59× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $1121 | $1225 | $1329 | $1434 | $1538 |
| Conservative (16%) | $1184 | $1294 | $1404 | $1514 | $1624 |
| Base Case (24.6%) | $1271 | $1390 | $1508 | $1626 | $1744 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $1360 | $1487 | $1613 | $1740 | $1866 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.20 | 45.08 | 36.02 | 61.81 | 9.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.15 | 37.05 | 28.79 | 50.43 | 8.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.75 | 34.28 | 26.66 | 45.24 | 7.40 |
| P/FCF | 47.56 | 39.08 | 28.70 | 92.35 | 22.84 |
| P/FFO | 40.81 | 40.73 | 32.13 | 51.42 | 7.66 |
| P/TBV | 37.66 | 28.74 | 18.17 | 70.32 | 21.16 |
| P/AFFO | 52.28 | 48.11 | 43.20 | 65.66 | 8.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.98 | 21.22 | 10.02 | 32.13 | 7.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.39 | 10.82 | 9.65 | 17.56 | 2.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASML's fair value at $1417.66 vs the current price of $1427.02, implying -0.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1417.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1250.13 (P10) to $1435.45 (P90), with a median of $1342.13.
ASML's current P/E of 51.3x compares to the industry median of 63.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -19.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
45 analysts cover ASML with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1595.20 (range: $1200.00 — $1911.00), implying +11.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (25), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ASML trades at the 4470th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (46.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ASML's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (31.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1760.0% to approximately $1176. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.