MODEL VERDICT
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1450.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1469.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1406.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1413.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $1273.88 | Below threshold | +12.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $1147.82 | -20.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $881.41 | -39.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $1000.35 | -31.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $1375.84 | -5.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $1221.70 | -15.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $1348.50 | -7.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $949.86 | -34.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $638.10 | -56.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $629.03 | -56.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $1020.16 | -29.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $1406.07 | -3.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1158.26 | -20.2% | 100% | 97 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 44× | 48× | 52× (Current) | 56× | 60× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $1147 | $1251 | $1356 | $1460 | $1564 |
| Conservative (16%) | $1211 | $1321 | $1432 | $1542 | $1652 |
| Base Case (24.6%) | $1301 | $1419 | $1538 | $1656 | $1774 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $1392 | $1518 | $1645 | $1771 | $1898 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.20 | 45.08 | 36.02 | 61.81 | 9.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.15 | 37.05 | 28.79 | 50.43 | 8.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.75 | 34.28 | 26.66 | 45.24 | 7.40 |
| P/FCF | 47.56 | 39.08 | 28.70 | 92.35 | 22.84 |
| P/FFO | 40.81 | 40.73 | 32.13 | 51.42 | 7.66 |
| P/TBV | 37.66 | 28.74 | 18.17 | 70.32 | 21.16 |
| P/AFFO | 52.28 | 48.11 | 43.20 | 65.66 | 8.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.98 | 21.22 | 10.02 | 32.13 | 7.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.39 | 10.82 | 9.65 | 17.56 | 2.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASML's fair value at $1158.26 vs the current price of $1450.56, implying -20.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1158.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $957.95 (P10) to $1279.20 (P90), with a median of $1116.27.
ASML's current P/E of 51.8x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +22.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.2x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
44 analysts cover ASML with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1458.50 (range: $1150.00 — $1911.00), implying +0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (25), Hold (15), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ASML trades at the 5740th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (46.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ASML's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (31.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1890.0% to approximately $1176. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.