MODEL VERDICT
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $412.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $428.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $411.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $373.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $345.09 | Below threshold | +11.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $1102.96 | +167.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $589.68 | +43.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $319.96 | -22.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $72.78 | -82.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $370.74 | -10.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $66.60 | -83.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $323.24 | -21.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $280.21 | -32.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $293.22 | -28.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $326.30 | -20.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $75.38 | -81.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $499.79 | +21.2% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $386 | $419 | $453 | $486 | $520 |
| Conservative (17%) | $409 | $444 | $480 | $515 | $551 |
| Base Case (26.2%) | $441 | $479 | $517 | $556 | $594 |
| Bull Case (35%) | $473 | $514 | $555 | $596 | $637 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.31 | 24.92 | 6.46 | 120.23 | 42.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.40 | 21.60 | 5.70 | 81.11 | 27.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.24 | 9.77 | 3.31 | 51.24 | 16.57 |
| P/FCF | 345.76 | 118.05 | 18.01 | 1024.44 | 441.92 |
| P/FFO | 15.54 | 10.20 | 3.57 | 50.78 | 16.31 |
| P/TBV | 2.59 | 2.19 | 1.16 | 6.11 | 1.61 |
| P/AFFO | 367.33 | 182.34 | 15.36 | 1045.45 | 433.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.50 | 2.11 | 1.12 | 5.93 | 1.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.37 | 3.84 | 1.82 | 8.59 | 2.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MU's fair value at $499.79 vs the current price of $412.37, implying +21.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $499.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $372.35 (P10) to $607.87 (P90), with a median of $488.91.
MU's current P/E of 54.3x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +28.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.3x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
68 analysts cover MU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $363.00 (range: $190.00 — $500.00), implying -12.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (55), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MU trades at the 6170th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (37.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6550.0% to approximately $142. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.