MODEL VERDICT
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $542.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $496.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $455.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $456.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $420.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $2734.82 | +404.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $1235.46 | +127.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $370.46 | -31.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $79.44 | -85.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $329.38 | -39.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $75.12 | -86.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $305.15 | -43.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $515.19 | -5.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $362.22 | -33.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $295.02 | -45.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $44.40 | -91.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $837.16 | +54.4% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 59× | 65× | 71× (Current) | 77× | 83× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $495 | $545 | $595 | $646 | $696 |
| Conservative (17%) | $524 | $577 | $631 | $684 | $737 |
| Base Case (26.2%) | $565 | $623 | $680 | $738 | $795 |
| Bull Case (35%) | $606 | $668 | $730 | $791 | $853 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.31 | 24.92 | 6.46 | 120.23 | 42.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.40 | 21.60 | 5.70 | 81.11 | 27.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.24 | 9.77 | 3.31 | 51.24 | 16.57 |
| P/FCF | 345.76 | 118.05 | 18.01 | 1024.44 | 441.92 |
| P/FFO | 15.54 | 10.20 | 3.57 | 50.78 | 16.31 |
| P/TBV | 2.59 | 2.19 | 1.16 | 6.11 | 1.61 |
| P/AFFO | 367.33 | 182.34 | 15.36 | 1045.45 | 433.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.50 | 2.11 | 1.12 | 5.93 | 1.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.37 | 3.84 | 1.82 | 8.59 | 2.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MU's fair value at $837.16 vs the current price of $542.21, implying +54.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $837.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $893.64 (P10) to $1423.13 (P90), with a median of $1156.70.
MU's current P/E of 71.4x compares to the industry median of 48.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +46.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.3x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
68 analysts cover MU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $455.86 (range: $310.00 — $1000.00), implying -15.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (55), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 41.5% is 34.4 percentage points above the 6-year average (14.1%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$96. (2) Multiple compression: MU trades at the 5960th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (37.3×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8220.0% to approximately $96. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.