MODEL VERDICT
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $200.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $200.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $207.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $213.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $203.17 | Below threshold | +6.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $221.51 | +10.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $115.66 | -42.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $111.71 | -44.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $206.88 | +3.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $97.36 | -51.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $201.55 | +0.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $22.72 | -88.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $161.22 | -19.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $165.07 | -17.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $113.92 | -43.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $211.42 | +5.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $202.06 | +0.9% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 64× | 70× | 76× (Current) | 82× | 88× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $173 | $189 | $206 | $222 | $238 |
| Conservative (5%) | $178 | $195 | $211 | $228 | $245 |
| Base Case (5.2%) | $178 | $195 | $212 | $229 | $245 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $181 | $198 | $215 | $233 | $250 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 115.75 | 80.82 | 44.52 | 278.13 | 80.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 127.47 | 82.93 | 47.25 | 399.02 | 121.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.48 | 52.15 | 18.06 | 63.63 | 15.85 |
| P/FCF | 109.15 | 82.22 | 32.67 | 213.69 | 71.58 |
| P/FFO | 47.84 | 47.74 | 18.23 | 85.75 | 20.34 |
| P/TBV | 19.79 | 20.81 | 14.33 | 25.69 | 4.28 |
| P/AFFO | 59.33 | 53.20 | 19.83 | 134.46 | 35.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.84 | 5.56 | 1.86 | 23.59 | 9.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.91 | 10.11 | 4.31 | 11.34 | 2.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMD's fair value at $202.06 vs the current price of $200.21, implying +0.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $202.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $167.65 (P10) to $251.92 (P90), with a median of $209.08.
AMD's current P/E of 75.6x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +79.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 115.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
69 analysts cover AMD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $293.26 (range: $220.00 — $380.00), implying +46.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (47), Hold (22), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2490.0% to approximately $250. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.