MODEL VERDICT
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $360.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $347.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $278.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $258.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $245.04 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $254.72 | -29.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $149.83 | -58.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $139.51 | -61.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $264.21 | -26.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $101.13 | -72.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $268.36 | -25.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $30.02 | -91.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $350.30 | -2.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $346.45 | -3.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $139.45 | -61.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $348.15 | -3.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $234.34 | -35.0% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 114× | 125× | 136× (Current) | 147× | 158× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $308 | $338 | $368 | $398 | $427 |
| Conservative (5%) | $317 | $348 | $378 | $409 | $440 |
| Base Case (5.2%) | $318 | $348 | $379 | $410 | $440 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $323 | $354 | $386 | $417 | $448 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 115.75 | 80.82 | 44.52 | 278.13 | 80.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 127.47 | 82.93 | 47.25 | 399.02 | 121.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.48 | 52.15 | 18.06 | 63.63 | 15.85 |
| P/FCF | 109.15 | 82.22 | 32.67 | 213.69 | 71.58 |
| P/FFO | 47.84 | 47.74 | 18.23 | 85.75 | 20.34 |
| P/TBV | 19.79 | 20.81 | 14.33 | 25.69 | 4.28 |
| P/AFFO | 59.33 | 53.20 | 19.83 | 134.46 | 35.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.84 | 5.56 | 1.86 | 23.59 | 9.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.91 | 10.11 | 4.31 | 11.34 | 2.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMD's fair value at $234.34 vs the current price of $360.54, implying -35.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $234.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $206.56 (P10) to $285.09 (P90), with a median of $244.55.
AMD's current P/E of 136.1x compares to the industry median of 52.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +158.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 115.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
70 analysts cover AMD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $310.86 (range: $230.00 — $380.00), implying -13.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (47), Hold (23), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AMD trades at the 8510th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (115.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3070.0% to approximately $250. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.