MODEL VERDICT
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $397.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $402.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $370.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $375.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $370.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $21667.50 | +5348.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $21722.62 | +5362.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $17796.67 | +4375.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $11299.99 | +2741.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $16427.13 | +4030.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $11622.20 | +2822.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $16321.25 | +4004.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $8646.85 | +2074.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $8362.90 | +2003.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $17296.23 | +4249.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $9876.98 | +2383.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13778.35 | +3364.8% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $11524 | $12639 | $13755 | $14870 | $15985 |
| Conservative (18%) | $12243 | $13428 | $14612 | $15797 | $16982 |
| Base Case (27.7%) | $13248 | $14530 | $15812 | $17094 | $18376 |
| Bull Case (37%) | $14254 | $15634 | $17013 | $18392 | $19772 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.83 | 0.88 | 0.39 | 1.11 | 0.25 |
| EV/EBIT | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| P/FCF | 1.65 | 1.88 | 0.74 | 2.37 | 0.56 |
| P/FFO | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.27 | 0.67 | 0.15 |
| P/TBV | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 0.07 |
| P/AFFO | 1.75 | 1.38 | 1.13 | 3.77 | 0.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.30 | 0.86 | 0.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 0.42 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TSM's fair value at $13778.35 vs the current price of $397.67, implying +3364.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13778.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11268.43 (P10) to $13412.49 (P90), with a median of $12329.25.
TSM's current P/E of 37.5x compares to the industry median of 53.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -29.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.8x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
25 analysts cover TSM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $427.50 (range: $330.00 — $480.00), implying +7.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TSM trades at the 3190th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TSM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (45.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2930.0% to approximately $281. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.