MODEL VERDICT
ACNB Corporation (ACNB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $51.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $49.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $51.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $50.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $51.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $44.52 | -13.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 3 industry peers | $48.69 | -5.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 3 bank peers | $44.03 | -14.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 3 industry peers | $44.78 | -13.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $44.50 | -13.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $50.91 | -1.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.35 | -13.9% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $38 | $45 | $53 | $60 | $68 |
| Conservative (7%) | $39 | $46 | $54 | $62 | $69 |
| Base Case (11.1%) | $40 | $48 | $56 | $64 | $72 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $41 | $50 | $58 | $66 | $74 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.22 | 11.26 | 9.59 | 13.43 | 1.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.94 | 14.02 | 5.27 | 17.35 | 4.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.85 | 13.04 | 4.86 | 15.15 | 4.27 |
| P/FCF | 9.08 | 9.07 | 6.72 | 10.99 | 1.28 |
| P/FFO | 9.89 | 9.80 | 8.57 | 11.36 | 1.03 |
| P/TBV | 1.46 | 1.49 | 1.04 | 1.78 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 10.30 | 10.29 | 8.98 | 11.65 | 1.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 0.84 | 1.41 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.82 | 2.92 | 2.05 | 3.33 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACNB's fair value at $44.35 vs the current price of $51.53, implying -13.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.90 (P10) to $48.80 (P90), with a median of $45.84.
ACNB's current P/E of 14.3x compares to the industry median of 12.4x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +15.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
2 analysts cover ACNB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $58.00 (range: $58.00 — $58.00), implying +12.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ACNB trades at the 6220th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ACNB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 830.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.