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Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$262.26
→
Intrinsic$261.12
0%
$173.17$261.12$435.85
Market implies 25% growth for 5 years
ADSK appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $262, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (25%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $173 → Bull $436. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$333$360$389$420
10%$224$242$261$282
12%$167$180$194$209
14%$131$142$153$164

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($436) offers 66% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($173) implies 34% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$1.88B
Year 2$2.35B
Year 3$2.94B
Year 4$3.67B
Year 5$4.59B
Terminal$72.78B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.50BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is ADSK stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

ADSK trades at $262.26 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $215.31, implying -27% downside. Using a 9.5% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($334.13) suggests limited upside.

What is ADSK's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.50B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $960M net debt and dividing by 0.22B shares: Bear $137.11 | Base $215.31 | Bull $334.13. Current price $262.26 implies -27% to base case.

How is ADSK's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($47.68B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 31.7x.