Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$245.87
→
Intrinsic$352.74
+43%
$235.36$352.74$586.12
Market implies 11% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ADSK could have 43% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $246, the market prices in 11% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $235 → Bull $586. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $444 | $481 | $521 | $564 |
| 10% | $301 | $326 | $353 | $381 |
| 12% | $226 | $245 | $264 | $285 |
| 14% | $180 | $194 | $209 | $225 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($586) offers 138% upside at 24% growth, 8% discount
- 30% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (11%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($235) implies 4% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$2.89B
Year 2$3.47B
Year 3$4.16B
Year 4$5.00B
Year 5$5.99B
Terminal$94.99B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.41BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.