MODEL VERDICT
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $244.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $237.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $242.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $239.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $218.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $299.26 | +22.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $166.10 | -32.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $180.98 | -25.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $443.61 | +81.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $210.14 | -14.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $454.12 | +85.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $302.15 | +23.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $278.18 | +13.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $179.62 | -26.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $417.29 | +70.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $341.45 | +39.7% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $208 | $229 | $251 | $272 | $293 |
| Conservative (5%) | $214 | $236 | $258 | $280 | $302 |
| Base Case (-0.8%) | $202 | $223 | $244 | $265 | $285 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $202 | $222 | $243 | $264 | $284 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 98.95 | 64.41 | 46.72 | 318.06 | 97.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 87.22 | 61.98 | 47.62 | 193.65 | 56.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 64.60 | 51.66 | 33.60 | 141.81 | 37.25 |
| P/FCF | 37.90 | 42.68 | 21.81 | 49.88 | 12.04 |
| P/FFO | 73.63 | 54.66 | 39.83 | 198.77 | 55.81 |
| P/AFFO | 82.17 | 57.38 | 41.17 | 235.41 | 68.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 39.35 | 40.39 | 17.25 | 64.68 | 17.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.50 | 10.73 | 7.75 | 20.86 | 4.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADSK's fair value at $341.45 vs the current price of $244.35, implying +39.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $341.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $291.01 (P10) to $421.11 (P90), with a median of $352.22.
ADSK's current P/E of 46.7x compares to the industry median of 34.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +35.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 99.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
51 analysts cover ADSK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $338.00 (range: $279.00 — $380.00), implying +38.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (38), Hold (9), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ADSK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11480.0% to approximately $525. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.