MODEL VERDICT
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $245.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $226.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $231.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $243.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $276.02 | Below threshold | -12.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $207.96 | -15.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $158.52 | -35.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $135.80 | -44.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $218.81 | -11.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $181.07 | -26.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $200.49 | -18.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $106.03 | -56.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $104.22 | -57.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $143.66 | -41.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $219.07 | -10.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $263.90 | +7.3% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $208 | $229 | $251 | $272 | $293 |
| Conservative (5%) | $214 | $236 | $258 | $280 | $302 |
| Base Case (-0.8%) | $202 | $223 | $244 | $265 | $285 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $202 | $222 | $243 | $264 | $284 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 98.99 | 64.41 | 47.01 | 318.06 | 97.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 87.22 | 61.98 | 47.62 | 193.65 | 56.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 64.63 | 51.66 | 33.81 | 141.81 | 37.22 |
| P/FCF | 37.91 | 42.68 | 21.94 | 49.88 | 12.01 |
| P/FFO | 73.66 | 54.66 | 40.08 | 198.77 | 55.79 |
| P/AFFO | 82.21 | 57.38 | 41.43 | 235.41 | 68.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 39.36 | 40.39 | 17.36 | 64.68 | 17.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.50 | 10.73 | 7.80 | 20.86 | 4.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADSK's fair value at $263.90 vs the current price of $245.87, implying +7.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $263.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $213.48 (P10) to $342.90 (P90), with a median of $274.25.
ADSK's current P/E of 47.0x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +81.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 99.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
51 analysts cover ADSK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $355.61 (range: $290.00 — $380.00), implying +44.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (39), Hold (8), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ADSK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11350.0% to approximately $525. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.