MODEL VERDICT
Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $103.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $115.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $113.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $108.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $109.72 | Pending | -5.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $117.62 | +13.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $89.18 | -13.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $101.27 | -2.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $101.43 | -2.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $136.74 | +32.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $106.38 | +2.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $73.17 | -29.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $113.46 | +9.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $129.71 | +25.3% | 100% | 76 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $90 | $101 | $113 | $124 | $135 |
| Conservative (13%) | $94 | $106 | $118 | $130 | $141 |
| Base Case (20.2%) | $100 | $113 | $125 | $138 | $150 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $106 | $119 | $133 | $146 | $159 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.29 | 33.28 | 20.61 | 56.29 | 14.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.37 | 24.12 | 15.38 | 43.49 | 10.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.05 | 20.24 | 13.60 | 34.71 | 7.60 |
| P/FCF | 49.94 | 18.97 | 14.73 | 187.24 | 68.07 |
| P/FFO | 27.77 | 25.20 | 17.64 | 41.35 | 9.00 |
| P/AFFO | 375.95 | 31.09 | 22.54 | 2430.68 | 906.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.55 | 2.54 | 1.83 | 3.60 | 0.58 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.82 | 1.74 | 1.39 | 2.44 | 0.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADUS's fair value at $129.71 vs the current price of $103.53, implying +25.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $129.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $107.07 (P10) to $147.98 (P90), with a median of $127.35.
ADUS's current P/E of 19.9x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +2.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover ADUS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $132.75 (range: $112.00 — $145.00), implying +28.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 6.7% is 1.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (5.3%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$149. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ADUS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4430.0% to approximately $149. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.