Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$103.53
→
Intrinsic$175.91
+70%
$111.93$175.91$270.12
DCF analysis suggests ADUS could have 70% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
Range: Bear $112 → Bull $270. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Current price is below even the bear case ($112) — offers good margin of safety.
Bull Case
- Bull case ($270) offers 161% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
Bear Case
- Bear case ($112) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 20% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.2%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$0.00TTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.